How much closer is Nawaz to premiership?

In the wake of the Islamabad High Court’s decision to consider former premier Nawaz Sharif's appeal on merit in the Al-Azizia reference, uncertainties loom over his participation in the upcoming general elections, triggering concerns within the PML-N.

Insiders have disclosed that the party's leading legal and political strategists are currently deeply immersed in discussions, exploring a range of options to surmount the last obstacle impeding Nawaz's journey back to power. The party is concerned that any potential delay might pose a significant stumbling block, jeopardizing his eligibility and leaving it hanging in the balance.

On Thursday, the IHC decided to hear Nawaz Sharif's appeal regarding his conviction in the Al-Azizia reference on merit. The move indicates the court's intention to delve into the substantive aspects of the case — examining charges, defences, evidentiary weight, and more — instead of focusing solely on procedural or jurisdictional matters.

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“After the IHC's move to deliberate Nawaz Sharif's appeal on merit, he sought counsel from the legal team,” party sources said. In a briefing to Nawaz and other senior leaders, the legal team pointed out that despite Nawaz’s sentence in the Al-Azizia reference being suspended, his disqualification remains a looming concern. There's a fear that if the reference is deliberated on merit by the IHC, further delays might ensue.

The legal team stressed that a court order for PML-N supremo’s acquittal before the submission of nomination papers was critical. A prolonged acquittal process could result in legal complexities surrounding the nomination papers, likely to be challenged in court.

Exploring various legal avenues, they considered seeking interim relief from the IHC to facilitate the nomination paper submission or engaging other available forums, including the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP).

However, with the reference pending in the high court, the option of recourse to the Supreme Court remains inaccessible for the party at present.
With only 58 days left until the impending general elections and the ECP stipulating a minimum 54-day election schedule, experts anticipate the imminent announcement of the election schedule, necessitating the timely submission of nomination papers.

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Legal pundits foresee the ECP announcing the election schedule shortly, heightening the urgency for the submission of nomination papers at the schedule's outset.

The Al-Azizia Steel Mills corruption case led to Nawaz’s sentencing to seven years in prison on December 24, 2018, with fines of Rs1.5 billion and US$25 million. The case is regarding the alleged inability of the Sharif family to justify the origins of funds used to establish Al-Azizia Steel Mills and Hill Metal Establishment (HME) in Saudi Arabia.

In December 2020, the IHC declared Nawaz a proclaimed offender in this case, a status that persisted during his near-four-year stay in London for medical treatment.

However, immediately upon his return this year in October, the PML-N supremo filed two separate applications, formally requesting the court to reinstate his pending appeals against the conviction.

He contended that while he was abroad for medical reasons, the pending appeals had been dismissed due to non-prosecution. The applications sought the court's attention to re-examine the appeals based on their merits. On October 24, the IHC complied with the former prime minister’s request, reinstating his appeals in both references.