Balancing and rebalancing acts
The writer is a Research Associate at Islamabad Policy Research Institute
A leader like Bismark, “who never tried to dominate Europe but still made Germany great, unlike Adolf Hitler who made a run at hegemony and led Germany to ruin.”
Seeing the security competition surrounding China’s ascendancy, the East Asian power exercises peace with its neighbour countries. China owing to its political clout and naval muscle has become a formidable force in region. China after becoming a regional power is trying to reach out to other regions’. China by launching the BRI has secured new ally partners. In the backdrop of China’s growth, it can be argued that the former’s economic prowess is an attraction for some regional countries. Whilst, China’s political force as evidenced from the ‘expanded naval doctrine’, the declaration of ‘Air Defence Identification Zone in East China Sea’ and the assertiveness in South China Sea have also emboldened the threat perception among the regional countries.
The regional countries alliance with foreign players is a testament to the fact that through military alliances, the countries are trying to balance China’s dominant position in region. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) is an example where Japan, Australia, India and the US are trying to strengthen the maritime security amidst the piracy and counterterrorism challenges. It is a cooperative endeavour on the part of regional countries to engage with foreign navies in securing the maritime environment. However, the absence of China from Quad raises the question as to why the region’s powerful navy is not part of maritime security arrangement. It fortifies the claim that a sense of insecurity exists from China’s naval posture. In order to deter the threat and to ensure that they do not become subservient to the powerful, the regional countries are trying to strengthen their military muscle, with the net outcome being the military alliances, defence buildup and perpetual security competition. In this entire struggle, the aim is to outmaneuver the strong player and in the process, military cum economic and security tools are being employed.
Rahul Mishra in his study “China in India’s Southeast Asia Strategy” argues that “China’s assertiveness” may bring Japan and India closer. Mishra sees political resentment from Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Taiwan on the South China Sea conflicting islands. These speculations are being drawn in the backdrop of hostility between China and regional countries. As evidenced from the China-India border dispute along the Himalayas and China-Japan maritime claim over Senkaku islands (East China Sea), Japan and India are likely to team up against China. Henry Kissinger sees India’s establishing of the Andaman and Nicobar naval commands as “overt balancing to China”. Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is also of the opinion that India’s ingress in Asia Pacific is more of a “balancing act against China than business interests in the region”. On the part of China, the country by reaching out to Indian Ocean has outmaneuvered the regional and global obstructions targeted at constraining China. China’s building of seaports in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar is indicative of the former’s trans-regional growth. Whilst, the regional countries by opening up to China have (in a way) bid farewell to India’s domination. India might lose its hegemony regionally with operation of seaports — Gwadar, Hambantota and Kyaukphyu. Likewise, the US might become less influential in South and Central Asia due to BRI.
China’s advancement has created an impact and the structural changes brought in have compelled India and the US to exercise countervailing strategies. Thus, ‘balancing’ is an act in international system. The ‘lesser powers’ cannot decide the overall balance of power in a region. Thus their role is often characterised as ‘useful allies’ in a balancing coalition. ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries tilt towards the US and India, and the South Asian countries’ economic engagement with China are reflective of the balancing and rebalancing acts aimed at staging power.
Published in The Express Tribune, October 20th, 2023.
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