Who will be the next hegemon in Middle East?

The United States has pivoted towards Asia-Pacific and has redirected its resources to the increasing threats posed by China and Russia. It cannot afford to remain distracted by regional crises in the Middle East as it pivots towards other global priorities. Therefore, the US must divert Middle Eastern resources it needs to confront China and Russia which it considers as the great geopolitical threats of the 21^st century. As the US pivots, it vacates its seat of acting as the great Middle Eastern hegemon for over six decades. This leaves the world dashing to find an answer to an interesting geopolitical question in the Middle East — who will be the Middle East’s next hegemon?

A hegemon in the region must lead with complete political, economic and military dominance. The aspirants within the region include Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iran. Israel is the only nuclear power in the Middle East and a great partner and ally of the US. Besides this, it leads the region in advanced technology and boosts a powerful and professional military. Turkey is a permanent member of NATO and the only country that is part of both Asia and Europe. It enjoys both political as well as military clout in the region and has been earlier a Middle Eastern hegemon during the time of Ottoman Empire. The only reason that Egypt can be considered to take on the role of a hegemon in the Middle East is because it represents the oldest civilisation in the region and had boosted a great army in the past. It has the Swiss Canal but its economy has been messed up by IMF and its political potential is also rolling down the hill. Iran although under sanctions is still a powerful stakeholder for becoming a hegemon in the region as it is on the threshold of acquiring nuclear weapons and challenges the American and Israeli influence in the region. According to the leaked State Department cable, Iran wants to rebuild the Safavid Empire that dominated the Middle Eastern region three centuries ago with the current goal of creating a new Persian Empire that also wields a nuclear weapon. Saudi Arabia is the ideological core and the nucleus of the Arab world. It has weak military capability but it has a young leader who dreams of making the Middle East the European Union of tomorrow.

It will be unfair not to mention the two external powers, Russia and China, and their bid to fill in the vacuum left over by the pivoting US away from the Middle East. China extends its control in the region through BRI, else it has no ambitions of being a regional or global hegemon. The Ukraine War has obviously diminished Russian power but it still maintains permanent naval and air bases in Syria. This helps Russia to access Mediterranean Sea and remain actively involved in the Middle Eastern politics. The Moscow controlled Wagner group also operates in Libya and controls several bases there. Moscow can also establish military bases in some of the African countries as some of the states in Africa have started enjoying deeper defence cooperation with Russia. As an outside power Russia enjoys warm relations with Iran as their common animosity against the US makes them natural geopolitical partners. Russia can provide Iran with air defence systems and fighter jets whereas Iran can help Russia by not only providing it drones but also with missiles. If Saudi Arabia is backed by the US, Iran enjoys the potential backing of Russia.

The greatest threat in the Middle East comes no more from inter-state wars but from the growing sub-state violence that may spill over the borders. It is for this reason that I assume that a stakeholder from within the region will claim regional hegemony and only a power that shares the common religion and the close geographical proximity with the Middle Eastern states can extend the necessary influence and control that the region needs for any future order to take shape and remain sustainable.

Hegemony in the Middle East has a historical context. The US as a policy has not allowed the emergence of any hegemon in the Middle East that could harm Non-Arabs, Non-Sunnis and Non-Muslims. The US believed that the emergence of any such hegemon would constitute an existential threat to the Non-Sunnis, Non-Arabs and Non-Muslim minorities of the Middle East. The US fears are based on history because whenever Islam has united in the region, as it did under the Ottoman rule, it attacked and conquered Europe, Africa and Asia. Given these views, the US designed a post-World War II Middle Eastern grand strategy that never allowed the creation of such a polity. It is not only the US but these Middle Eastern minorities also whose only great strategic imperative like the US has been to ensure that no such polity emerges that harms their interest. But now the US is pivoting towards Asia-Pacific and given its other global priorities it may not be in a position to prevent the future emergence of such a polity.

The question that I ask is not only about the emergence of this polity but also about the Middle Eastern order, the order that the US created and which is now ending. The Middle East is one of the world’s most polarised and volatile regions. The post-World War II order in the Middle East was driven by a US policy that sought to support dictators, autocratic regimes and monarchies that managed to expand and spread both the US influence as well as its interests in the region. During the period of Arab Cold War in the 50s and 60s to the end of cross-border ideological wars, the Middle Eastern Order has seen many ups and downs. From the wars fought between Arabs and Israel to the signing of bilateral peace accords between the states to the Arab Spring and many ongoing civil wars in the region, the Middle East showcases a turbulent region that has witnessed failing of many grand schemes for regional order. As social, political and economic conditions in the Middle East change, one thing is given that status quo in the Middle East cannot be sustained.

With the US executing Pivot Asia-Pacific policy, the Balance of Power in the Middle East is changing and the shift may lead to either the creation of a regional order driven by a single hegemon or a regional order driven by a hegemon but under a multipolar system. The most interesting question for the future of Middle Eastern politics is likely to be how power will be distributed in the Middle East in the coming years. All realist theorists will be with their guns out betting which realist theory will define the future of Middle Eastern politics — the Hegemon Stability Theory, the Power Transition Theory or the Balance of Power Theory.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 8^th, 2023.

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