President Biden’s latest outburst

President Jo Biden’s latest unkind remarks about Pakistan being one of the most dangerous nations of the world is factually incorrect and has come at a time when there was an illusion that after years of misunderstanding and friction, the relations between the two countries were on the mend. The comments were also a reaffirmation of the President’s frustrations with a rising China and Pakistan’s close relationship with it. One could also interpret it as Biden’s fears of an anti-American Pakistan emerging with Imran Khan in the saddle; the probability in their estimates being quite high. Stretching it a little further, it may even be interpreted that these remarks would gladden the hearts of Modi and his RSS team of Pakistan haters. And a combination of all of these.

I would give Pakistan’s deep ties with China as the primary reason for this outburst. For President Biden and US policymakers, China poses the greatest threat to its supremacy in the coming decades. And Pakistan despite its present predicament and weaknesses does significantly contribute directly or indirectly to boosting China’s global and regional influence. CPEC has been the lead programme of BRI that has opened up multiple avenues for China to expand its influence in the region. US policymakers would like India to singularly focus on China but Pakistan distracts it, and will continue to do so until India changes its policy of suppressing the people of occupied Kashmir.

By no means the China-Pakistan relations are based on any one factor, they span deep economic and strategic interests. Stretching the point further regarding Biden’s vexation is also the recent Saudi snub refusing to step up oil production to offset the backlash of the US sanctions on Russia. On the contrary, it endorsed the OPEC decision to cut its oil production by 2 million barrels to maximise profits accruing from the US sanctions on purchase of Russia’s oil.

The swing of US relations with the leading oil producer and an important Muslim country shows how countries are adjusting to a changing power structure. Even India, one of the US closest strategic partners, has been purchasing oil from Russia. All these developments indicate a gradual lessening of US global hegemonic power.

The war with Ukraine has weakened Russia that is so clearly evident from how it has lost its tight grip on the Central Asian States. As reported by The New York Times during the recent border conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, despite being members of the military alliance in Eurasia Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), these countries were ignored by Russia. And both are now looking up to China, enhancing its influence that would benefit it in the long-term. So, what the US and the West had gained by the decline of Russia’s power, China’s rise has offset it.

It is also no coincidence that in the last few decades Washington’s relations with several Muslim countries have run afoul. Iran, Syria, Iraq, Libya, Lebanon and Afghanistan to name a few. All these countries have bitter memories to share and the US too has not gained either. While the US is looked up to championing the cause of democracy and takes pride in being the oldest democracy but strong instincts of global domination override these considerations. Another facet of the US interventions has been that it has generally made the government of these countries more authoritarian and isolated, with the brunt falling primarily on the people making them more miserable while the rulers tightening their grip.

These factors have triggered anti-Americanism and reversed the process of global democratisation rather than promoting it. The same inference could be drawn when we look at Cuba, Venezuela and other South American and African countries.

It would be naïve to assume that the US or other major powers would be conducting foreign and security policies primarily on altruistic grounds. Where self-interest of major powers conflicts then principles are likely to be compromised.

In Pakistan’s domestic politics President Biden’s statement would significantly favour Imran Khan. His allegations that the US directly or indirectly contributed to his ouster and opposes Pakistani leadership pursuing an independent foreign policy and a balanced relationship with major powers. It would also reinforce the general perception that the US is not a reliable power and could turn against the country if it takes decisions that do not conform to its global strategic policy objectives.

How will the Pakistan leadership respond to this latest diatribe and what future holds for US-Pakistan relations?

In all likelihood, after the response of the Foreign Office, the demarche and PM and FM’s statements they would like to underplay President Biden’s remarks. One presumes that wiser elements in the US too would continue with the tactical engagement that had preceded President Biden’s remarks.

One expects our leadership will realise that extreme hostility among political parties weakens the state, and provides major powers greater space to build pressure and manipulate events. The best response to the US and the international community would be that we strengthen the country internally. Our politics has to be civilised and not on the road side. Differences on policy issues over the economy, foreign relations or security issues are a crucial element of democratic ethos. Instead, we have heavily personalised politics and the focus has drifted away from real national issues and the betterment of the masses. Apart from being a great disservice to the people it is pulling the country down, giving our detractors an opportunity to project us in bad light.

We have to constantly remind ourselves that we are part of a globalised world that has thrown challenges of its own kind that a country can only ignore at its peril. Fiscal stability is critical in the present environment that comes with financial discipline. We do not have to wait for IMF or other lending agencies to enforce it on us. We recently witnessed how the market was punishing us as the dollar slid to over 240 rupees. We have to conduct ourselves responsibly and in resonance with the open world economy.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 19^th, 2022.

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