From cold-war rivals to ‘friends’

Prime Minister Imran Khan is set to undertake what is seen as a landmark and historic visit to Russia this week. Last time an elected Prime Minister travelled to Moscow on an official visit was in March 1999. In between, however, former military ruler General Pervez Musharraf, former president Asif Ali Zardari and former prime minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi did visit Russia, but the one by Imran Khan is going to be the first bilateral trip by a Prime Minister of Pakistan to Moscow in 23 years.

The visit will be closely watched by the outside world particularly the US given the current crisis over Ukraine. India will certainly be following the PM visit too since New Delhi has a long-term strategic partnership with Moscow. But in recent years as India inched closer to the US, Russia has also made moves to improve ties with Pakistan.

The process of rapprochement between Pakistan and Russia began during the later years of Musharraf regime but picked up pace in 2011 when Pakistan’s relationship with the US went haywire. That year saw a CIA contractor kill two Pakistani nationals in Lahore, the secret US raid to kill Osama Bin Laden in Abbottabad, and killing of 24 Pakistani soldiers in the US air strikes along the Afghan border. Those back to back incidents virtually brought the two allies on the brink of falling apart. That was when a joint session of Parliament approved new rules of engagements with the US as well as a proposal to diversify the foreign policy options.

One of the proposals was to mend ties with Russia with whom Pakistan did not have good ties because of cold-war rivalries. Russia too was keen to bury the past and explore options given the fact that its long-term ally India was tilting ever closer to the US. In fact the process made significant headway as in 2012 Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to travel to Islamabad but the trip could not go ahead because of the domestic political situation in Pakistan. Nevertheless, the process of rapprochement continued and the two sides quietly worked to deepen their cooperation. In 2016, Russia sent a contingent of its troops for the first time in the history to conduct joint military drills with the Pakistani army. Russia ignored Indian advice after New Delhi persuaded Moscow not to go ahead with the joint military drills with Pakistan after an attack on its military base in the disputed Kashmir region. Since then joint military exercises have been the regular feature between the two countries.

Also the two countries have covered significant ground on Afghanistan. During the ‘Afghan Jihad’ both countries were in the opposite camps but now they share the same view on the way forward for the war-torn country. The reason Pakistan and Russia have convergence on Afghanistan is that they know instability in Afghanistan would lead to the rise of terrorist groups, something that would be a threat for both the countries as well as for the region.

On the bilateral front, Russia and Pakistan are keen to expand their economic ties. The two countries are close to signing a deal on the laying of a gas pipeline from Karachi to Kasur. The Pakistan Steam Gas Pipeline is considered the flagship project between Pakistan and Russia. The project was first conceived in 2015 but the progress was slow since Russian companies faced US sanctions. But now the two sides have overcome those hiccups and an agreement is believed to be ready for the signing.

Therefore, the PM’s upcoming visit is part of the ongoing efforts by the two sides to bury their bitter past and enter into a new era of cooperation. Pakistan expects President Putin to pay a return visit to Islamabad sometime this year. If that happens, it will culminate the years of overt and covert efforts by the two countries seeking complete transformation in their relationship from being bitter cold-war rivals to strategic partners.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 21^st, 2022.

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