Beware a fifth wave

Pakistan in the past week has reported less than 300 new Covid-19 cases as the positivity rate again for the second time fell below 1 per cent this month. The good news is that the positivity rate has remained below 2 per cent since October 15 on the back of an expanded immunisation drive across the country.

Local media has reported that the number of Covid-19 cases in Pakistan has fallen to its lowest, making the country one of the most successful nations in the region to curb spread of the virus.

According to the latest numbers shared by the government for November 12, there were 391 positive cases in the past 24 hours. At least 1,158 patients remain in critical care while nine deaths were reported. This is in sharp contrast to the overall peak since the pandemic started and when the figures were ten times higher. This shows how much Pakistan has progressed in its fight against Covid-19.

It has been an uphill battle. Earlier this year, when Pakistan started its national coronavirus vaccination drive, the government had aimed to immunise 70 million people by the end of 2021. When immunisation started, it was done in a systematic manner, beginning with those most at risk. With the help of friendly countries like China and others who were generous in the supply of vaccines as well as those that were received through the COVAX system and the WHO, demand was managed in a way to keep up with supply. And in this credit goes to both the federal and provincial governments who were able to establish working systems to vaccinate people.

Looking back, it can safely be said that the country has made good progress. Pakistan has given at least 50% population at least one dose of the Covid-19 vaccine. Asad Umar, the chief of the National Command and Operation Centre, which oversees the fight against Covid-19 in Pakistan, tweeted: “Reached important milestone of 50% of country’s eligible population receiving at least 1 dose. KP became 2nd province to vaccinate half its eligible population with at least 1 dose.” Presently, the highest rate of immunisation has been recorded in Islamabad, Mirpur and Mandi Bahauddin. There is a need to increase the pace of vaccination in Hyderabad, Nowshera, Faisalabad, Quetta, Karachi, Mingora and Mardan. While the Sindh government has launched a door-to-door Covid vaccination campaign across the province, more awareness needs to be created. Like the polio campaign, doctors and community health workers will go to each house in the district and vaccinate people against the deadly virus. So far, 26% of people in the country have been fully vaccinated against the virus.

Despite the sharp decline in cases, Special Assistant to PM on Health Dr Faisal Sultan has warned that “millions in the country still need to be vaccinated against coronavirus.” He says people are at most risk. A fifth wave of coronavirus could hit Pakistan if the pace of vaccinations is not increased, he cautions.

The call for vaccination comes after cases of the new Epsilon variant were reported in the country. Punjab has reported 25 cases. According to the WHO, the variant had originated in California, which was why it was called the California strain or B.1.429, and then it travelled to the United Kingdom and other European countries.

The problem is that as the positivity rate drops and deaths decline, people have started to be less cautious about Covid. Not only has commercial activity resumed in full, lockdowns of any form have been lifted from most parts of the country. We see that social distancing has all but ended in most areas and that the overall attitude of people over the past few months has relaxed. Public gatherings have increased and an insistence on proof of vaccination is not being taken as seriously as was the case some months back.

It is time to remind people of the dangers of a fifth wave. Pakistan has paid a heavy price in Covid numbers. Total number of Covid cases in the country stood at 1.28 million with 28,595 deaths recorded. Patients recovered from the virus stands at 1.22 million and the recovery rate has risen to 96 per cent. Let us not be lax and keep ourselves alert in the days to come.

 

Published in The Express Tribune, November 15^th, 2021.

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