Now the fourth wave
This writer is the former editor of The Express Tribune and can be reached @Tribunian
Medical experts are telling us that the Delta (Indian) variant of Covid-19 is now the dominant strain worldwide and is accompanied by a surge in deaths, almost entirely among unvaccinated people. In the last week, Pakistan reported 2,783 new coronavirus cases in 24 hours, taking the country’s Covid-19 tally to 986,668. The country’s death toll climbed to 22,760 after 39 more people succumbed to the deadly disease. Meanwhile, 1,000 patients recovered from the deadly disease in a day taking total recoveries to 918,329. According to the National Command Operation Center (NCOC), total active Covid-19 cases across the country were reported to be 45,579.
There is more cause for worry in days to come. The National Institute of Virology (NIV) at the Dr Panjwani Center for Molecular Medicine and Drug Research (PCMD), University of Karachi, said in a statement, that it processed a total of 2,062 samples received from the Sindh Health Department in two days, from July 12 to 13. The genotyping of randomly selected 94 positive samples of Covid-19 revealed 65 cases of the Delta variant, which makes 69% of the total samples tested.
The emergence of the Delta variant has raised concerns in Pakistan of a fourth wave of coronavirus. While the Delta variant was initially identified in India and hence called the Indian variant, Pakistan was considered safe from it because borders between the two countries are sealed. But now the variant has made it to Pakistan via other countries. Pakistan reported its first case of the Delta variant on May 28, 2021. In the following week, the country saw more infections amongst passengers flying from the UAE. It is almost impossible for Pakistan to halt the entry of the variant; the challenge now is how this strain can be handled.
This isn’t our problem only. The world is worried. The cases of Covid-19 in the United States are up 70% over the previous week and deaths are up 26%, with outbreaks occurring in parts of the country with low vaccination rates, as per the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
It is time to take vaccination and SOPs more seriously. Time and again we see that SOPs are violated — like in the case ahead of Eidul Azha when thousands visit Bakra Mandis to purchase sacrificial animals and also during the Eid itself, when millions pray and socialise together. Many Muslim countries around the world have put their cities under lockdown to try and stop the spread of the new variant during Eid. None such measures are in place in Pakistan which started to open up as the Delta variant numbers started to climb.
The seriousness seems to have hit home with Prime Minister Imran Khan calling the Delta variant “the biggest concern”, and urged the public to follow safety precautions. Covid point person Asad Umar states the obvious: that in the absence of strong enforcement of health guidelines such as wearing masks and maintaining social distancing, a fourth wave could emerge in Pakistan in July. This seems to be happening.
What are we doing about it? So far, we have started the process of smart lockdowns. This will obviously help. At the same time, Pakistan has to double its efforts on vaccination.
To be fair to the government, it has set up a system which has eased the vaccination drive considerably. In comparison to the horror stories we hear from many other countries, including developed ones, our country has managed to set up a working system from scratch. It is a system and one that can be replicated in other countries, should such a possibility occur.
Our challenge, however, doesn’t end at creating a system that works. We need to get people to avail the service. Pakistan has expedited its inoculation drive in the past weeks, and anyone 18 or over is eligible for vaccination.
Over 20 million vaccine doses have been administered to date, with a record of over 0.5 million shots in one day last week. But only a little more than four million people are fully vaccinated. Pakistan has a population of over 200 million.
Possibly it is time to take punitive measures against those who refuse to vaccinate. This is because their decision not to vaccinate is affecting the lives of many more people apart from themselves. We have to inoculate on a war footing.
Published in The Express Tribune, July 19th, 2021.
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