India’s double game

Several news outlets have now reported that India has been flying weapons to Afghanistan under the guise of evacuation flights for diplomatic staff in the country. This is concerning on many levels, but most of all the uncertainty of whom these weapons are meant for. Legitimate shipments to support the Kabul government would not have to be ‘secretly’ flown in. That leads to the concern that the weapons could be destined for anti-Pakistan terrorists based in Afghanistan.

While some have also raised questions over the legitimacy of the evacuation flights, we believe this is a case of using a real problem as cover for questionable actions, rather than using an invented problem. Bear in mind that the Taliban are claiming that they now control 85% of the country. This includes much of the city of Kandahar — from where India says it evacuated 50 consulate staffers. The Taliban statement lends legitimacy to India’s cover story.

However, even if we acknowledge that India was doing the right thing by keeping its diplomats safe, we must still question why the planes allegedly flew in several tons of artillery munitions. India’s strong intelligence presence in Afghanistan has been well-established. Their close ties to leading members of the Kabul government have reportedly allowed them a free hand in anti-Pakistan activities. At the same time, there have also been recent reports in Indian, Afghan, and other foreign media that India has been reaching out to groups and individual Taliban leaders and that they are not considered close to “Pakistan or Iran”.

This, when read with Afghan reports about Indian weapons being moved around Kabul, also raises a secondary concern — is India simply trying to keep communication open with the Ghani government and the Taliban, or is New Delhi double-dealing? The fact that the reports of arms shipments coincide with reports of India reaching out to the Taliban — upending their public stance of not engaging with the group — leads us to believe it is the latter. India’s concern is not that the Taliban are likely to overrun the country. It is the loss of a base for operations in Pakistan. They are now gambling on ways to convince the Taliban to maintain the status quo.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 13^th, 2021.

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