May 1 deadline

Part of the reason that US wants troops to stay back in Afghanistan is the Kabul government’s failure to make progress

US President Joe Biden confirmed that the deadline for the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan will probably not be met. The May 1 deadline was agreed to as part of the US-Taliban peace deal and is conditional on the Taliban meeting several conditions, most of which they already have. However, several analysts and even serving US military officials have been saying since last year that the deadline agreed by the Trump administration did not take ground realities into account. “That was not a very solidly negotiated deal,” Biden said in a TV interview.

But this does not mean that a complete withdrawal is off the table. Biden also said that if the deadline is extended, it won’t be by much. He said the US is consulting with the Afghan government and other US allies on the finer details. This is significant because the Afghans have complained about being shut out of the original deal. Indeed, ignoring an aggrieved party was a signature of the Trump administration — look at his so-called peace proposals for Palestine, which were crafted with zero input from the Palestinians. Of course, any deadline extension will have to be negotiated with the Taliban as well. While the Taliban warned that there would be “consequences” if the US failed to meet the withdrawal deadline, there is a general consensus that they would not scuttle the deal if the proposed extension is only a few weeks or months.

Part of the reason that the US wants troops to stay back in Afghanistan is the Kabul government’s failure to make progress in their own talks with the Taliban. This failure is mainly because the Kabul government has not been negotiating in good faith. Instead, they are gambling on the US being unwilling to let the country fall under Taliban control. This would only take a matter of weeks because US air support is one of the few things giving Kabul a military advantage. But the US has clearly had enough and is now forcing Kabul to the table. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s ‘response’ to Biden’s comments is another risky gamble, insisting that he wants elections instead of installing an interim government with Taliban participation. Good gamblers know how to stop before they lose everything.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 19^th, 2021.

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