Afghanistan at crossroads

It is sheer coincidence that the crucial intra-Afghan talks kicked off a day after 19th anniversary of 9/11 attacks


Kamran Yousaf September 13, 2020
The writer is a senior correspondent of The Express Tribune in Islamabad. He tweets @Kamran_Yousaf

The much-awaited and delayed crucial talks between Afghan government and Taliban finally began in Doha, Qatar. The formal talks between the Afghan government delegation and Taliban representatives would start on Monday (today) after Saturday’s opening ceremony. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo flew to Doha for the opening ceremony while delegates from several other countries including Pakistan were in attendance. The first direct talks between Afghan government and Taliban were part of the ongoing efforts seeking an end to the decades-long unrest in Afghanistan. This itself is a historic development given the Taliban had long refused to engage with the Afghan government, calling it a US puppet.

This has naturally renewed hopes that peace may return to a country that has seen a bloody civil war and foreign invasions since 1979. The path to peace will certainly not be easy as these intra-Afghan talks were supposed to take place in March. But the process was delayed over differences on the issue of prisoners exchange which was a main precondition set by Taliban in their deal with the US on February 29 to start talks with the Afghan government. As part of the deal signed in Doha, Afghan government was to release 5,000 Taliban prisoners in return for insurgents freeing 1,000 Afghan security personnel before the intra-Afghan dialogue could start. However, the Ghani administration — also in view of reservations shown by certain countries — refused to free certain battle-hardened Taliban prisoners allegedly involved in deadly terrorist attacks. The breakthrough finally happened after the Loya Jirga held in August gave the Ghani administration a go-ahead to free all Taliban prisoners in the interest of greater peace.

What this suggests is that the Taliban are clearly dictating terms. For now Taliban have not conceded any considerable ground but have been given many concessions by the US and Afghan government. The reason being that many independent assessments suggest Taliban are now more powerful than they were in October 2001 when they were removed by the US invasion after the 9/11 attacks. Bluntly put, the US has lost its longest and most expensive war. But to manage face saving, the US turned to the peace talks. In fact, the current process produced results only because President Trump made it clear that he would withdraw troops with or without a peace deal before his re-election bid. That prompted the US establishment to put together some kind of arrangement in Afghanistan that would at least avoid the Americans humiliation.

It is sheer coincidence that the crucial intra-Afghan talks kicked off a day after the 19th anniversary of 9/11 attacks that led to the ouster of the Taliban regime. Almost two decades later the US is seeking peace with the same group and recognised it as a political entity. In his speech at the opening ceremony, Secretary Pompeo told the Afghan sides that “the choice of your future political system is, of course, yours to make” as he urged them to “seize the opportunity” to secure peace.

This is the most critical part — whether Afghan government and Taliban would be able to evolve a consensus on the future political dispensation. Dr Abdullah Abdullah, the Afghan delegation head, called for compromise by all sides. Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the co-founder of the Taliban movement and deputy political chief, repeated his demand for the country to adopt an “Islamic system”. Other Afghan groups want a democratic setup where human rights and the rights of women are protected. This goes to show all sides need to show flexibility and greater accommodation in order to have any semblance of peace.

 

Published in The Express Tribune, September 14th, 2020.

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