De-escalation

Reports of a slew of Iranian missiles launched at Iraqi bases where US troops were stationed were followed by the news of a plane crash near Tehran airport, worrying the world that war was becoming inevitable. And then something strange happened. While the world sifted through numerous reports, most of which could only be called dubious, propaganda, or utter nonsense, a de-escalation began. Iran fired at least 15 missiles at two bases in retaliation for the killing of General Qasem Soleimani. The attacks apparently killed no one, and although some are crediting US early-warning systems, several credible sources have said it appears that the Iranians deliberately targeted the missiles to avoid casualties. Warning shots, if you will.

Iranian state media, however, is claiming that 80 “American terrorists” had been killed and that the bases had been severely damaged in a “crushing response” to Soleimani’s death. But why would Iran avoid casualties and then, for domestic consumption at least, claim it inflicted massive casualties? One explanation is that this was the only way to send a message to the US while avoiding getting into an all-out war and also pacifying domestic demand for revenge. It appears the Iranians have successfully killed three birds with one stone, because hours after the strikes, US President Donald Trump began suggesting that the US would not respond with further violence.

Much like American justification for the attack on Soleimani, the Iranian claim that the reprisal attack was an act of self-defence is dubious, at best. Still, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s tweet that attacks on the US had “concluded” was enough to get Trump — who had threatened to commit war crimes just a few days ago — to walk back. Trump’s televised statement, however, was another example of fudging the facts. He claimed Iran would never be allowed to have nuclear weapons while he is president while ignoring that Iran only restarted its quest for the bomb because he had violated the Iran nuclear deal. But at least for now, it appears the hawks in the Trump administration have failed. And that is authentic good news.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 10^th, 2020.

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