How PPP secured victory in one constituency even as it failed in another

PTI levels accusations of a rigged election but a multitude of factors seem to have affected results

HYDERABAD: The spiritual and tribal influence and arguably political popularity of Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) helped the party retain its Sindh Assembly constituency in the by-polls in Dadu on Thursday after encountering defeat in Larkana on October 17. PPP candidate, Syed Saleh Shah Jilani, who succeeded his late father Syed Ghulam Shah Jilani's spiritual and political seats, defeated his opponent from the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) with a margin of almost 17,000 votes.

Shah was polled at 42,254 votes in the by-election on the PS-86 seat against Sardar Imdad Ali Laghari's 25,555 votes amid allegations by the latter's party that the provincial government had influenced the outcome. "Sindh Chief Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah and his provincial ministers led the election campaign for three days before the by-polls sitting in Sehwan," alleged former federal minister and PTI's provincial leader Liaquat Ali Jatoi at a press conference on Friday.

He accused the PPP and the provincial government of trying to bribe the voters, claiming that evidence in this regard was shared with the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP). "But the ECP didn't take action," he lamented. Flanked by Laghari, he also blamed the police for being partisan with the PPP's supporters and bemoaned that the distant polling stations also barred many voters from turning up to cast their ballot in an election which witnessed low turnout. They demanded re-election in the constituency.



Plethora of factors

Notwithstanding the veracity of the charges of rigging, the factors which led to the PPP's defeat in the by-election in Larkana on PS-11 and victory in PS-86 vary. PS-11 is an urban locality where traders, PTI, Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Ismal-Fazal (JUI-F) and some other political parties supported the former-trader- leader-turned-politician Moazzam Khan Abbassi of the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA).

He was pitted against the PPP's Jamil Soomro, the party chairperson Bilawal Bhutto Zardari's political secretary, against whom the odds were stacked even within the party. Moreover, the PPP had already lost that constituency in the 2018 general elections to Abbassi, son of Haji Munawar Ali Abbassi, who was the elected MPA from Larkana five times on the PPP's ticket and also remained provincial minister twice.

The Abbassi family remained affiliated with the PPP for over five decades before parting ways in 2013. The MPA's grandmother, Dr Begum Ashraf Abbassi, was a close aide of the PPP's founding chairperson and former prime minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. She was the elected MNA in 1962 and 1971 and remained the deputy speaker of the National Assembly till 1977. She was the elected MNA again in 1988 and served a second tenure as the deputy speaker of the National Assembly. His profile arguably towered that of Soomro's.

The electoral fray in PS-86 Juhi has been a different story. Not only the constituency's setting was different, with a larger expanse of the rural areas, the personal profiles also mattered. While the Abbassi family switched their affiliation from the PPP in Larkana, the Shah family in the Juhi-based constituency in Dadu has continued their allegiance with the party.

Local analysts contend that the PTI fielded a lightweight candidate in a constituency which Shah's father had won six times before he succeeded him on his mantle. The newly elected MPA was invested as the custodian of Syed Bilawal Shah Noorani's shrine in Naing Sharif after the death of his father in September. The Sindh chief minister and a large number of local dignitaries attended the ceremony called 'dastarbandi'.

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Besides the spiritual influence of the shrine, local tribal chiefs also seemed to side with the PPP. The former associates of Liaquat Ali Jatoi, including Sardar Bandeh Ali Leghari, Sardar Gul Muhammad Rodhnani and Abdul Fatah Dahiri, defected the PTI and joined the PPP amidst the canvass. Moreover, the influential tribal chief and PPP MNA Sardar Rafique Ali Leghari and MPA Dr Sanjeel Laghari were already campaigning for Shah.

Although PTI's local leaders, including the party's candidate, have made accusations of the rigging, they are yet to come clear about challenging the by-polls in the election tribunal.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 9^th, 2019.