Opinion: Dahrna – then and now

There was a dharna in 2014 and there is the imminent threat of another one now. What are the differences and similarities? Then, the newly-elected PML-N government was in the second year of its term. The same is true now for the PTI government. Both followed a largely peaceful transfer of power. The rallying point in each case was dhandli (rigging) in elections and the charter of demand was topped by the resignation of the prime minister. Coincidentally, Imran Khan had also described his protest as an “Azadi” March. Is it then a case of “as you sow, so shall you reap” or “the chickens have come home to roost”?

While the shouting is somewhat similar, the substance and the alliances are not. Last time the proverbial one page was missing. The Parliament was united against the dharna party, acting as a deterrent against any extra-political intervention. Not this time, though what is written on the page is a popular guessing game with the anchors, especially after the attempt to ban appearing on one another’s programmes failed. The Parliament figures nowhere. Maulana Fazlur Rahman has no Tahir-ul Qadri on his side. Given his own organisational, mobilisational and oratorical skills, he does not need one. No other political party worth the name was in the PTI dharna. The Maulana has two major and at least three minor parties on his side, not as active supporters but as non-opponents. For the moment, these two major parties are playing safe to secure the health of their imprisoned leaders. This provides the government an opportunity to keep them on a tight leash to demonstrate to the visiting IMF team and the President of the World Bank that the dharna is an isolated show of an obscurantist religious party with insignificant political representation.

The quick surrender to the striking traders was also motivated by delinking them from the dharna. In the past, the power of the bazaar has underpinned most attempts to bring down governments. At any rate, striking traders would not sit well with the celebrations being arranged to show the President of the World Bank that Pakistan was serious about the Ease of Doing Business. Above all, the last thing the government wants is the cancellation of a celebrity visit like that of the Chinese President in 2014.

Be that as it may, most pundits and the government haven’t had a clue as to what the Maulana is up to. All calculations fail to construct a scenario whereby the Maulana could be installed as the prime minister, even if he succeeds in forcing the resignation of the incumbent, with or without any support in disguise. The major parties would jump in if the outcome seems to be going in the direction of fresh elections. It is with these parties that the Maulana can achieve the best bargain. What economists call incentives incompatibility is at play here. All this discounts the tenacity of Imran Khan; hence a weak assumption. If he could score a century in terms of dharna days, he would have the sportsman spirit of letting the Maulana do the same. But if it wasn’t for the APS tragedy, his dharna would have continued longer. So, no harm using the situation as a scapegoat for a performance that lacks lustre. Give me, an honest broker, power and I will fix everything that has not worked. Financing deficits by recovering looted wealth is not in sight. So back to the real world of the Bretton Woods Sisters.

One should worry more about the unintended consequences of Maulana’s dharna.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 1^st, 2019.

Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces.