Peace prospects in Afghanistan

Intra-Afghan dialogue should pay heed to the aspirations of ordinary Afghans, including women

It took seventeen years of frustrated outcomes for the US to realise that negotiated settlement is the only way to end the lingering conflict in Afghanistan. While the Afghan government is still not comfortable with direct US negotiations with the Taliban, these negotiations are ongoing nonetheless. The US Secretary of State has just claimed that he is hopeful that a peace deal can be reached before September, ahead of the next elections in Afghanistan.

Despite the Taliban’s reluctance to speak directly with the ‘puppet’ Afghan government, attempts are also being made to encourage intra-Afghan talks. A large delegation of Afghan politicians and civil society representatives were supposed to meet the Taliban in April in Qatar, but these talks were called off by the Taliban at the last minute.

To assure civil society representatives and politicians who are currently not in government that their views are also important, the US Special Envoy has begun holding talks with them. Besides trying to bring the Taliban to the table, Pakistan too is trying to enable intra-Afghan talks. It has just hosted a delegation of Afghan leaders from different camps, in the run-up to the ongoing Afghan President’s visit to Pakistan.

Hammering out a sustainable power-sharing formula for Afghanistan remains difficult.  While the US withdrawal from Afghanistan now seems imminent, there are many policymakers who are cautious of abandoning Afghanistan again. A hasty US withdrawal can cause another civil war to break out and inflame already fraught regional tensions. Chaos in Afghanistan can in turn allow terrorist groups with global reach, such as the Islamic State, to further consolidate their position in the region.

It is necessary to encourage an intra-Afghan dialogue. This dialogue should ideally not only be based on a compromise between the US-backed Afghan government, the Taliban and other rival politicians, but it should pay heed to the aspirations of ordinary Afghans, including women. Perhaps the intra-Afghan dialogue is being pushed so assertively now as they provide a face-saving measure for the US to pull out. Why wasn’t there any interaction between the various Afghan factions since Hamid Karzai’s time?

It is also unfortunate that despite all the resources poured into Afghanistan, the state building efforts in the country have not been able to accommodate or respond to the desires of the Afghan people. Guided by imported leaders, and imported notion of governance, Afghanistan has not been able to create an effective security apparatus, nor an efficient bureaucracy for tax collection, or service provision. The over-centralised and donor-dependent Afghan government is corrupt and captured by a handful of strongmen, while ordinary citizens still lack access to the most basic of necessities.

Ashraf Ghani, a longtime World Bank employee, has been struggling to implement market-based imperatives, while tussling with political opponents and the varying influences of neighbouring countries.

For Afghanistan to become economically sustainable, it is necessary for all the relevant stakeholders to overcome their own myopic zero-sum agendas and begin working towards win-win scenarios for this broader region. The US administration also needs to set aside its own antagonistic relationship with Iran and China when it comes to thinking about the future of Afghanistan. For Afghanistan itself, as for other regional partners, the operationalisation of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline and a linkage between Chabahar Port and Gwadar Port, could offer very positive outcomes.

Enabling increased regional integration offers the prospects of alleviating regional rivalries, helping the Afghan government create more sustainable sources of revenue, and creating more viable options for its people, including those currently dependent on the war economy, or other undesirable activities, such as opium production.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 28^th, 2019.

Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces.