Transition to democracy — at last

We are close to making history in achieving another transition to democracy. You may say we have been at this point before, three times when the military regimes faded into history and elected governments took over in 1972, 1988, and 2008. What is different in the third transition are the two sets of remarkable changes that have taken place. First, it is the peaceful transfer of power from one elected government to another. Similar changes did take place after the second transition — 1988-1997, but these are partial and overshadowed by Article 58-2b of the Constitution that gave power to the president to dissolve parliament and thus remove elected governments or destabilise them. Now that is in the past, as the political parties with consensus, have restored the parliamentary character of the Constitution.

A more significant development than in the previous periods is that parliament has completed two full tenures without any disruption, and the two successive elected governments have completed their terms. The question is when can we say that a country has made a transition to democracy, and what does it require to qualify for that distinction? First, democracy is an evolving system, self-perfecting without any pre-determined final point. Its refinement and even degradation is subject to many social, economic and cultural changes; good democracies may degenerate with bad leadership and institutional decay, while bad democracies may improve with better leadership and institutional development.

Second, certain fundamentals for democracy are a pre-requisite, which include freedom of expression, association and fundamental rights, free and fair elections, competitive party system, rule of law and presence of effective civil society. How does Pakistan fare according to these basic and rough criteria? It does far better than every other Muslim country, if that is our reference point, and better than most of the developing countries. There has been gradual improvement though slow and fragments in many of these areas. The point is that democracy improves itself when a society believes that it is the best system and embraces it as an ideology. Second, greater the lengths of practising democracy better the chances of bettering it. The scholars of democratic transition after empirical study of this subject have concluded that two democratic transitions from one party to another qualify to the ranks of democratic transition. That makes reversal back to authoritarianism — in our case, military dictatorships — more complex and difficult. We are entering that phase of our political development, though not yet there until we peacefully conclude the electoral process and celebrate a new elected government. Optimism within me suggests we will soon cross that point.

Second, our focus more on politics of confrontation, elite corruption and the dominance of the military in many vital domains has obscured many positive changes that have occurred in Pakistan with or without public policies. Let me mention five of the most substantial changes that have contributed to the development of democracy and will add impetus to its growth and refinement. First is the elite consensus. It has been there but a section of them has always acted as an opportunist to play a façade for the military regimes. There are fewer and there is lesser acceptability of hybrid regimes of the past. Second, there is a growing middle class with its increasing footprint in the urban spaces and strident voices on issues of governance, rule of law and accountability. Third, media in Pakistan has emerged as one of the most powerful actors. With its proliferation, it cannot and will never be controlled by one party or one centre. Fourth, a growing civil society with deep historical roots offers resistance to excessive, unlawful authority.

Finally, a political culture of questioning, debate and free expression seems to have emerged as a strong social and political force. With these trends, pro-democracy forces may celebrate its progressive potential.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 6^th, 2018.

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