Osama bin Laden's death: The end?

Theodore Karasik and Amir Rana weigh in on the consequences of Osama bin Laden’s death.

Theodore Karasik, the Director of Research and Development at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis weighs in on the consequences of Osama bin Laden's death.

Q.  With Osama bin Laden gone, what becomes of al Qaeda ?

A. al Qaeda  decentralised a couple of years back, splitting into a variety of franchises worldwide and gave operational authority to those franchises. Osama bin Laden had a largely spiritual role, so operationally his killing makes no real difference to al Qaeda .

Q. Will the circumstances of his death, the fake photo that made the rounds, the sea burial etc lead to some believing that he has not been killed. Will we now see conspiracy theories surrounding his death much as we saw during his life?

A. You have a couple of issues ongoing here, the information war that will break out over how this decapitation (the killing of Osama bin Laden) occurred as well as activity from those who will try to keep the spirit of bin Laden alive, so you will see a lot of activity on these fronts in the next week or three. You will also see a lot of disbelief and even claims that this was in fact a conspiracy to start a new war or that there is something else afoot. I don’t believe that’s true but you will see these lines parroted and these games played by certain individuals who have political agendas.

Q. There was a longstanding belief in international circles that Osama was somewhere in Pakistan, there was speculation he was in Waziristan, in Chitral, the K2 Mountain etc. It turns out he was in Abottabad, a stone’s throw away from key military installations. What happens to Pakistan’s international image and bargaining power now?

A. Pakistan watchers are going to be looking very closely and examining Pakistan’s exact role in this. The questions that will be asked are how Osama got there and exactly who was supporting him in this compound. So within the compound itself there will be a lot of forensic evidence that will be examined to try and find an answer to these questions. The second part is that between Pakistan and the US there is an agreement at the highest level of cooperation, particularly when it comes to getting bin Laden. Unfortunately at the individual level, there is a great deal of mistrust. We have had many cases of Pakistani and US intelligence, military and civilian officials talking past each other. Having said that, it seems that there was Pak-US military cooperation here because for an operation like this, those helicopters would have been visible on Pakistani radar and nothing was done about them.

Q. Of course, you’re speaking from an expert point of view and US President Obama did mention Pakistan’s cooperation in his initial speech. But do you think that has already been lost in the ongoing debate which is increasingly turning negative for Pakistan?

A. Any country that a terrorist is captured from is going to be suspect no matter what, because there is going to seem to be some kind of collusion. But what makes this worse is that this was central Pakistan, and it is the worst place from the perspective of Pakistan for him to have been found.

Q. What impact do you think this will have on the drone strikes being conducted in the tribal areas? And does this now raise the chances of more ground operations in FATA?

A. I think there will be new resolve to conduct drone strikes in FATA, but as I said before, Osama was the spiritual head, the whole body of the snake still exists. And when it comes to the Taliban, all the factions have their own agendas. I don’t see this as a reprieve or an end. There was a situation yesterday, it has changed a little bit and tomorrow is another story entirely. So no, there should be little impact on the drone strikes. As far as ground operations go, this was an exceptional case.

Q. Moving beyond the Pakistani Taliban, who have already made their typical threats, to the Afghan Taliban. There are those who say that Osama was a problem for them as well. What do you think their reaction would be?

A. I think this will bring a further divide within the Afghan Taliban factions, especially the factions that want to push for a settlement with the Karzai government, but we will have to wait and see as the situation is in flux.

Q. Moving to the US, obviously there is great euphoria right now, but we have seen how quickly public opinion changes. How soon will it be that people start to say ‘Look, we got Osama. Mission accomplished. Now let’s come to some sort of arrangement and get out.’?

A. It’s entirely possible. The American public is already tired of the operations in Afghanistan. It’s been called the forgotten war, and this will certainly renew interest in it, but the interest will now focus towards getting out. But we’re only in May right now, and there’s the whole year ahead of us and a lot can happen.

Q. Al Qaeda has not been able to conduct a major attack on US soil since 9/11. Operationally, how efficient is al Qaeda  right now?

A. I think they have a lot of tricks up their sleeve. They are smart and resourceful and know the loopholes in both international law and security procedures and they will figure out a way to do something. They may try Mumbai-style attacks, which are very hard to stop. There may also be lone wolves, who take it upon themselves to stage attacks.  It’s another question as to how successful they may be. It’s going to be a very interesting period, the rest of this year, to see how the retribution will be carried out. Having said that it is still better to have him killed rather than have him as a prisoner, as that would have given him an elevated stature, in my opinion.

Q.  How important is it for al Qaeda  to stage an attack now to prove that they are not defeated?

A. Very important. Also, do remember that they knew that American forces were on his trail and so they have had plans on the table for nine years to take revenge in the case of Osama being killed, so this is not something that they have to cook up this moment. It’s just a question of pushing the ‘go’ button.

 

Amir Rana, director of the Pakistan institute for Peace studies weighs in on the consequences of Osama bin Laden’s death.




Q. What will be the impact on Pakistan’s own war on terror after the death of Osama?

A. I do not think it will have an major impact, because while the groups active in Pakistan do idolise Osama bin Laden, there is no real operational linkage. These groups are independent and we need to pursue these groups with the same fervour that we did yesterday. We should not slacken in our efforts.

Q. Do you think we will see an uptick in their efforts now? Will they now try to prove that they are still effective?

A. In the short-term there will definitely be an increase in threat. Their networks in Pakistan are still active. They have networks all over the Middle East and sleeper cells in Europe and America which will likely be activated. Even in the long term, I do not expect any major change in their activity.

Q. There was always speculation that Osama was in Pakistan, along with denials from Pakistan. Now it turns out that not only was he in Pakistan, but in fact in the garrison town of Abbotabad, right next to a military academy. What does this do to Pakistan’s image and credibility?

A. That image was already in tatters, and it’s only gotten worse. The international media and the Indian media in particular are actively highlighting this issue and it is very damaging. If we want to control the damage then the Pakistani government will have to take a clear position, declaring that they supported this operation. As far as the policy of denial is concerned, that has changed during the past ten years. In 2006 General Musharraf himself declared in a press conference that a Taliban meeting that took place in North Waziristan was convened by Osama bin Laden. Then a few weeks later came the report, which was later endorsed by Washington, that Osama had narrowly escaped a raid conducted in the tribal areas. So the policy of denial did keep changing, and reports did keep coming in that Osama was in various Pakistani cities and also perhaps outside Pakistan.

Q. The Americans have repeatedly been saying that they would conduct an operation if they ever determined bin Laden’s whereabouts, do you think that this operation could have been conducted without the knowledge or cooperation of the Pakistani military and intelligence services?

A. I don’t think so. If you recall, there were some WikiLeaks that US special forces were present in the tribal areas. There was also a US intelligence network on the tribal areas which was used primarily for conducting drone strikes. So there has been both a US presence as well as collaboration. From 9/11 till now a large number of high ranking al Qaeda operatives have been arrested from Pakistan, and many of them were caught in urban areas including Rawalpindi, Lahore, Peshawar etc. The Taliban’s Mullah Baradar was arrested from Karachi. In many of these operations, there was a great deal of Pak-US collaboration and those arrests were largely due to Pakistani support and intelligence and were not simply US operations. Now, if we are to believe that the US’ own intelligence network in Pakistan is strong enough to conduct such operations independently, then that should be highly alarming for Pakistan’s own intelligence services.

Q. Even more alarming than that is the location OBL was in. If we did not know he was there, then that points to a colossal intelligence failure. On the other hand, if we knew where he was, then why did we not take action ourselves?

A. If they did not know, then certainly it is an alarming intelligence failure. But we should also look at this from an operational level. When such a high level target is present on Pakistani soil, there are a lot of serious questions about how to conduct the operation itself. It is entirely possible that Pakistan was comfortable letting the US conduct this operation on its own, and certainly there are tactical considerations as well but we will have to wait and see what details emerge.

Q. Pakistan is now open to even more accusations and pressure. Afghanistan has repeatedly said that Mullah Omar is on Pakistani soil. India for its part says that the Mumbai attack planners are also here. How much of an increase in pressure will we see, and will Pakistan be able to withstand it?

A. It’s not the first time that Pakistan will have to face this pressure. The pressure started right after 9/11 and has continued since. But we need to look at how it will impact bilateral relation between the US and Pakistan, developments in Afghanistan and relations with the rest of the world. If it is hurting Pakistan’s interests, then the establishment must take it seriously and take appropriate action.

Q. As far as Afghanistan is concerned, what impact will this have on the Afghan Taliban’s willingness to continue the fight?

A. I don’t think there will be a great deal of pressure on the Afghan Taliban since Osama really had no operational control over them. The more radical groups may have looked up to him, but they do not depend on him by any means. As far as Pakistan, Afghanistan and the US are concerned, they should continue with the policies that are being evolved. There are attempts underway by Kabul, Washington and Islamabad to try and resolve the conflict and there are also attempts to build confidence among these countries, so I do not think that any of the stakeholders want to take a U-turn on these points even if Osama is no longer in the picture.

Q. And on the United States’ side, do you think that the killing of Osama will increase calls for the US to wind down its operations and move towards an eventual withdrawal?

A. That’s certainly very likely, public perception and opinion has been changing, and given that the recession is still not over, the American public is likely to move from euphoria to calling for a pullout, or at least some form of closure in the Afghan theater.

Q. Finally, Osama was the center of many conspiracy theories and mythology in his lifetime, do you think the circumstances of his death and the fake picture that circulated will in fact give rise to even more conspiracy theories?

A. There are always conspiracy theories and they are almost always baseless. We have our conspiracy theories and the West has their own. These can remain at the public level, but should never reach policy level. At the end of the day, people will believe what they believe but what is important is that the policy-makers are not swayed by these fanciful stories. These theories should remain within the domain of fantasy and literature.

Published in The Express Tribune, Sunday Magazine, May 8^th, 2011.