No smooth sailing for Macron
Macron’s message of hope and reform-centric policy agenda did win him the presidential race
The writer is a senior research fellow at the Area Study Centre for Europe, University of Karachi. He tweets at @saj_ahmd
“A new page of our history has turned,” said the newly elected president of France, Emmanuel Macron, in his victory speech. He also vowed to fight against all inequality in French society. Clearly threatened by the rise of right-wing populism in Europe, European Union leaders expressed their delight at the French election result. German Chancellor Angela Merkel remarked that Macron carried the hope of millions of French people and of the whole of Europe.
To Macron, French unity is a priority — a point he underscored throughout his election campaign. He also promised to bring reforms in the French welfare system. A bumpy road ahead lies ahead. In order to implement the policies smoothly, Macron needs a majority in the 577-member National Assembly. The two-round legislative elections are scheduled for June 11 and 18. As described by Anne Lebreton, the spokesperson for Macron’s La Republique En Marche (Republic on the Move) party, “With a majority you can get your laws through, so it is very important and it is also an important sign of confidence.” Parliamentary majority is also significant for Macron as he would be able to select a candidate of his own choice as head of the government, ie, prime minister. In the French political system, the prime minister must be supported by a majority in parliament. In case any other party gains a majority, the political system can come to a paralysis. Such a situation in French political system is called ‘cohabitation’. The last time there was a situation of cohabitation was between 1997 and 2002 under then president Jacques Chirac.
Macron’s rival and far-right National Front (FN) leader, Marine Le Pen, has termed the upcoming parliamentary elections a “decisive political battle” between “patriots and globalists”. Le Pen pledged to gather all the patriots who “choose France first”. With the support of nearly 11 million voters, she has planned to transform her movement into “a new political force”. Indeed, Macron defeated Le Pen, bagging 66 per cent votes against 34 per cent. However, the situation in the legislative elections is different. A recent poll indicated that 59 per cent of Macron’s voters cast their ballots in his favour only to bar Le Pen from the presidency. Interestingly, another poll finds that 61 per cent of voters do not support Macron’s parliamentary majority.
The other tests for Macron are the growing violence and radicalisation in France, the on-going refugee crisis, increasing support to far-right National Front and the challenge of economic reforms. The violent attacks in western European countries have strengthened the far-right parties and their propaganda. In the wake of Paris and Nice attacks, Le Pen’s anti-Islamic and anti-immigrant rhetoric increased her electoral support. The result of French polls’ first round is an example in which Le Pen came at second with 7.6 million votes as compared to Macron’s 8.6 million.
On the other hand, reforming the economy seems to be an arduous task for Macron — even though it was the major promise in his election campaign. Soon after Macron was declared victorious, members of the French trade unions and students protested against his plans to liberalise the economy. Protesters threatened to oppose Macron’s pro-market reforms which, according to them, would lead to the loss of workers’ rights.
Macron’s victory in the runoff with almost 66 per cent margin against Le Pen has given confidence to the newly elected president. However, there is a need to compare the electoral situation of 2002 in which FN, under the leadership of its founding father, Jean-Marie, entered in the runoff. The margin with which FN was defeated in 2002 was 81 per cent as compared to 66 per cent in 2017. This proves Le Pen’s rising popularity and support base.
Macron’s message of hope and reform-centric policy agenda did win him the presidential race. But he has not crossed the finish line yet — and Le Pen’s FN is still running.
Published in The Express Tribune, May 12th, 2017.
To Macron, French unity is a priority — a point he underscored throughout his election campaign. He also promised to bring reforms in the French welfare system. A bumpy road ahead lies ahead. In order to implement the policies smoothly, Macron needs a majority in the 577-member National Assembly. The two-round legislative elections are scheduled for June 11 and 18. As described by Anne Lebreton, the spokesperson for Macron’s La Republique En Marche (Republic on the Move) party, “With a majority you can get your laws through, so it is very important and it is also an important sign of confidence.” Parliamentary majority is also significant for Macron as he would be able to select a candidate of his own choice as head of the government, ie, prime minister. In the French political system, the prime minister must be supported by a majority in parliament. In case any other party gains a majority, the political system can come to a paralysis. Such a situation in French political system is called ‘cohabitation’. The last time there was a situation of cohabitation was between 1997 and 2002 under then president Jacques Chirac.
Macron’s rival and far-right National Front (FN) leader, Marine Le Pen, has termed the upcoming parliamentary elections a “decisive political battle” between “patriots and globalists”. Le Pen pledged to gather all the patriots who “choose France first”. With the support of nearly 11 million voters, she has planned to transform her movement into “a new political force”. Indeed, Macron defeated Le Pen, bagging 66 per cent votes against 34 per cent. However, the situation in the legislative elections is different. A recent poll indicated that 59 per cent of Macron’s voters cast their ballots in his favour only to bar Le Pen from the presidency. Interestingly, another poll finds that 61 per cent of voters do not support Macron’s parliamentary majority.
The other tests for Macron are the growing violence and radicalisation in France, the on-going refugee crisis, increasing support to far-right National Front and the challenge of economic reforms. The violent attacks in western European countries have strengthened the far-right parties and their propaganda. In the wake of Paris and Nice attacks, Le Pen’s anti-Islamic and anti-immigrant rhetoric increased her electoral support. The result of French polls’ first round is an example in which Le Pen came at second with 7.6 million votes as compared to Macron’s 8.6 million.
On the other hand, reforming the economy seems to be an arduous task for Macron — even though it was the major promise in his election campaign. Soon after Macron was declared victorious, members of the French trade unions and students protested against his plans to liberalise the economy. Protesters threatened to oppose Macron’s pro-market reforms which, according to them, would lead to the loss of workers’ rights.
Macron’s victory in the runoff with almost 66 per cent margin against Le Pen has given confidence to the newly elected president. However, there is a need to compare the electoral situation of 2002 in which FN, under the leadership of its founding father, Jean-Marie, entered in the runoff. The margin with which FN was defeated in 2002 was 81 per cent as compared to 66 per cent in 2017. This proves Le Pen’s rising popularity and support base.
Macron’s message of hope and reform-centric policy agenda did win him the presidential race. But he has not crossed the finish line yet — and Le Pen’s FN is still running.
Published in The Express Tribune, May 12th, 2017.