‘Taliban’s success will be a nightmare, turning Afghanistan into a ground for proxy wars’
Dr Marvin G Weinbaum says Afghan war was lost in the US due to certain domestic and economic determinants.
ISLAMABAD:
The war in Afghanistan was lost in the United States rather than in Afghanistan, owing to certain domestic and economic determinants, said Dr Marvin G Weinbaum, Scholar-in-Residence of Washington DC’s Middle East Institute.
The US decision to opt for anti-terrorism rather than counter-terrorism in Afghanistan was a mistake, he said. “We went to Afghanistan for Bin Laden, not for a regime change.”
Weinbaum stated this at a public talk on “Challenges in US-Pakistan relations”, held at the Institute of Strategic Studies here on Wednesday.
“If the US succeeds in the war against terrorism, it will be a success for Pakistan as well,” said Weinbaum. However, the “two-stream policy” followed by Pakistan for the US-led insurgency in Afghanistan seems to be shifting their aims. He said that Pakistan holds a legitimate fear that the US would abandon the region once its interests are met, as it did after the fall of Soviet Union. There have been honest efforts in the past to change this image and misperceptions, but to no avail, he said.
The US scholar reiterated that the war in Afghanistan could not be won without cooperation from Pakistan. However, Pakistan cannot afford a divorce in relationship with the United States or its neighbours either. “The Pak-US relationship has always been a marriage of convenience,” he said, adding, “For Pakistan, China cannot be a replacement of US and the International Monetary Fund.” The scholar said that the US had always supported democratic governments in Pakistan, except where circumstances compelled it otherwise. The soviet invasion of Afghanistan left no choice for the US but to support General Ziaul Haq, he said. The 9/11 attacks, once again, forced the US to support another military regime in the region.
“Taliban are still hoping for a momentum in Afghanistan. Their success will be a nightmare for Pakistan,” the US scholar warned, “as their success will also influence Pushtuns living across the Durand Line.”
Sooner or later, other countries like Iran, China, India and Russia will get involved, making Afghanistan into a ground for proxy wars, he feared.
Terming the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s earlier statements, that hinted a possible military operation against suspected Al-Qaeda targets in Pakistan, as “worrisome”, he said that such statements were made “due to frustration of failed US strategies in Afghanistan”.
Responding to a question, Weinbaum said that military action against suspected Al-Qaeda targets in Pakistan “cannot be an option. Anything that threatens Pakistan will enhance forces of greater danger to both US and India.” He added: “I fear for the region’s peace if the US fails in Afghanistan.”
Talking about possible revolutionary changes in Pakistan, Weinbaum said, “There is no catalyst for change in Pakistan, despite the fact that the ingredients are there.”
Published in The Express Tribune, March 10th, 2011.
The war in Afghanistan was lost in the United States rather than in Afghanistan, owing to certain domestic and economic determinants, said Dr Marvin G Weinbaum, Scholar-in-Residence of Washington DC’s Middle East Institute.
The US decision to opt for anti-terrorism rather than counter-terrorism in Afghanistan was a mistake, he said. “We went to Afghanistan for Bin Laden, not for a regime change.”
Weinbaum stated this at a public talk on “Challenges in US-Pakistan relations”, held at the Institute of Strategic Studies here on Wednesday.
“If the US succeeds in the war against terrorism, it will be a success for Pakistan as well,” said Weinbaum. However, the “two-stream policy” followed by Pakistan for the US-led insurgency in Afghanistan seems to be shifting their aims. He said that Pakistan holds a legitimate fear that the US would abandon the region once its interests are met, as it did after the fall of Soviet Union. There have been honest efforts in the past to change this image and misperceptions, but to no avail, he said.
The US scholar reiterated that the war in Afghanistan could not be won without cooperation from Pakistan. However, Pakistan cannot afford a divorce in relationship with the United States or its neighbours either. “The Pak-US relationship has always been a marriage of convenience,” he said, adding, “For Pakistan, China cannot be a replacement of US and the International Monetary Fund.” The scholar said that the US had always supported democratic governments in Pakistan, except where circumstances compelled it otherwise. The soviet invasion of Afghanistan left no choice for the US but to support General Ziaul Haq, he said. The 9/11 attacks, once again, forced the US to support another military regime in the region.
“Taliban are still hoping for a momentum in Afghanistan. Their success will be a nightmare for Pakistan,” the US scholar warned, “as their success will also influence Pushtuns living across the Durand Line.”
Sooner or later, other countries like Iran, China, India and Russia will get involved, making Afghanistan into a ground for proxy wars, he feared.
Terming the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s earlier statements, that hinted a possible military operation against suspected Al-Qaeda targets in Pakistan, as “worrisome”, he said that such statements were made “due to frustration of failed US strategies in Afghanistan”.
Responding to a question, Weinbaum said that military action against suspected Al-Qaeda targets in Pakistan “cannot be an option. Anything that threatens Pakistan will enhance forces of greater danger to both US and India.” He added: “I fear for the region’s peace if the US fails in Afghanistan.”
Talking about possible revolutionary changes in Pakistan, Weinbaum said, “There is no catalyst for change in Pakistan, despite the fact that the ingredients are there.”
Published in The Express Tribune, March 10th, 2011.