To chase or not to chase

Pakistan will be asked to remove the stigma of being bad chasers against NZ on day five

New Zealand have waited 31 years for this, and Pakistan, well, they are not sure at the moment if they will be able to deny the Kiwis the opportunity to finally win a series against the Green Caps; nevertheless, the second Test has entered the last day with stand-in captain Azhar Ali and his men needing 368 runs from 90 overs to level the series 1-1.

Possibilities and probabilities are being discussed whether Pakistan, who have shown no signs of mastering the New Zealand pitches, will force a counter attack against the Kiwis on day five and go for a great chase. However, a look into Pakistan’s chasing or fourth innings record during Misbahul Haq’s reign as captain can shed some light on the prospects of tomorrow’s chase.

Misbah’s 50-match record says that he led the team to 24 victories, incurred 15 losses and had drawn 11 matches. Pakistan’s most successful captain, meanwhile, had to bat in the fourth innings on 26 occasions. Out of these, 11 were won by Pakistan, seven lost and eight were a stalemate.

Now a question can be raised that Misbah is not playing in this Test match, but we need to keep in mind that the mind-set of players that the 42-year-old has developed over the period of nearly six years remains the same despite his absence.

Ross Taylor on the tweaks to his technique #💯 #NZvPAK ^WN pic.twitter.com/FIG2fgaysb

— BLACKCAPS (@BLACKCAPS) November 28, 2016

Hence, we can deduce that Azhar will apply the same formula which we will try to formulate from Misbah’s performances in the fourth innings.

Let us for this analysis assume that we are not considering the drawn matches, since Pakistan need a result to avoid dropping points in Test rankings. The number of matches thus shrinks to 18.

Victories

Out of the 11 victories, one against Bangladesh by an innings and 184 runs in 2011 cannot be considered as the team did not come out to bat in the second innings — interestingly, it is the only victory by an innings under Misbah’s captaincy.

.@SarfarazA_54 interview at Hamilton #NZvPAK pic.twitter.com/ZhIAp6HDbS

— Pakistan Cricket (@TheRealPCB) November 28, 2016

Eight out of the remaining 10 victories were a walk in the park for the Green Caps as they were presented targets of less than 110 on all occasions. Meanwhile, in the remaining two matches Pakistan actually went out to chase bigger targets, however, against the same opposition Sri Lanka – 302 in 2014 at Sharjah and 377 in 2015 at Pallekele.

Defeats

One of the seven defeats, where Pakistan had to bat for the second time, came while they were following on against South Africa in 2013 at Centurion.

If that result is taken out of the equation, Pakistan, whenever they have been set a target of above 200, were unable to run past the finishing tape – once against Zimbabwe even when they were all out for 239 in Harare (2013) chasing 264.

Extrapolation

The discussion above give us strong reason to believe that Pakistan, if they attempt to win the match on day five against New Zealand by trying to chase 368 in 90 overs, even with an eased-out pitch and better batting conditions, might not be able to pull off a victory out of the hat.

Majority of the evidence presented above makes it unlikely for Pakistan to win the match but it is still not an obvious choice.

Babar Azam promised a lot with his 90 in the first innings, Younus Khan is known to come good for the team in the fourth innings for Pakistan, Azhar has a lot to prove if he wants to prove his worth as the impending Test captain, Sami Aslam has a replacement in the form of Sharjeel Khan now and if nothing Sarfraz Ahmed knows he needs to convert those starts.

Pakistan will have a lot more than a match to win tomorrow, they will be asked to remove the stigma of being bad chasers. A test of nerves awaits our batting line-up. Fingers crossed!

Do you think @TheRealPCB can successfully chase 369-run target on day five against @BLACKCAPS? https://t.co/gwIp1XMI2k #NZvPAK

— Tribune Sports (@ETribuneSports) November 28, 2016