New study: Experts optimistic about Pakistan’s democratic future

List out key factors as grounds for sanguinity

ISLAMABAD: A latest study claims that despite challenges, a number of structural shifts in politics and socio-economic trends such as growing middle class, vibrant civil society, independent judiciary and media and international environment provide cautious optimism for the sustenance of democracy in Pakistan.

The book, titled ‘Pakistan’s Democratic Transition: Change and Persistence’ and published by Routledge, brings together over a dozen prominent experts, including Maya Tudor, Saeed Shafqat, Mohammad Waseem, Rasul Bakhsh Rais, Imtiaz Gul and Ayesha Siddiqa, offering diverse views on the drivers of change and sources of persistence in Pakistani politics today.





“What makes the current democratic transition distinct from previous ones is the substantially different modes of behaviour and pattern of distribution of power and resources among various political players,” says Ishtiaq Ahmad, Quaid-e-Azam University Professor and the book editor.

Adnan Rafiq, co-editor and doctoral candidate at Oxford University, argues: “Too often our political analyses remain focused on individual or at best institutional level, however, we really need to investigate the underlying structural shifts to understand change or persistence in social practices.”

He points to rampant urbanisation, increased literacy rates, emergence of a sizable middle class, youth bulge and diffusion of electronic means of communication as key factors that have changed the dynamics of complex politics in the country.

The revolutionary political changes brought about by the 18th amendment, opines Saeed Shafqat, are potentially conducive for promoting civic education and pluralist society as building blocks of liberal democracy.

Rasul Bakhsh Rais states that civil society’s continued defence of the independence of media, judiciary, rule of law and demand for accountability of rulers will strengthen democracy.

According to Imtiaz Gul, judicial intervention is putting new checks on the traditional power structures, instilling fear not only among politicians and civil bureaucrats but also diluting the military’s authority and overindulgence in politics.



However, other contributors to the volume still see enormous challenges facing democratic politics in future. Muhammad Waseem argues that, unlike the rest of the world, the expansion of middle class has not led to corresponding growth in democracy in the country. Ayesha Siddiqa says that the lack of direct intervention by the army in politics should not be assumed as an indicator of democratic consolidation, because the military’s established linkages with various civilian stakeholders and continued dominance over the national narrative are enough to ensure the protection of its core institutional interests in the country.

According to Maya Tudor, “unless the political parties overcome their relative weakness, the state disassociates itself from Islamic identity, and relations with India become cooperative, Pakistan’s democratic system will remain fragile as ever.”

Published in The Express Tribune, November 7^th, 2016.