India left with limited options
Due to existence of ‘mutually ensured destruction’ between India and Pakistan a war is not possible
Prime Minister Narendra Modi gestures upon his arrival at the inauguration ceremony of the thirteenth "Pravasi Bharatiya Divas" or Overseas Indians Conference at Gandhinagar in Gujarat January 8, 2015. REUTERS
India’s policy of isolating Pakistan got a serious setback after the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) Summit in Gao as before and after the meeting China clearly defended the later and refuse to buy Modi’s remarks of ‘mother-ship of terrorism’ against Islamabad.
When asked about Indian PM Narrendra Modi’s comments, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying urged the international community to enhance counter-terrorism cooperation. However she said, “We also oppose the linking of terrorism to any specific country, ethnicity or religion.” This is China's consistent position,” she told a daily news briefing inBeijing held after the BRICS Summit.
Indian army moves heavy artillery guns along LoC
Earlier, Modi had indicated that it would go ahead with its policy of isolating Pakistan and he had also invited Bangldesh, India, Myanmar, Srilanka Nepal, Thailand and Bhuttan — all members of The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Techinical and Economic Cooperation — to the BRICS Summit in the mid of October. Three days before the Summit in India’s Gao, China’s Vice Foreign Minister Li Baodong told reporters in New Delhi that no country should pursue its own political gains in the name of counterterrorism. BRICS was not the first occasion where India policy for isolating Pakistan met failure. India lobbied in different countries especially in the US, which has been demanding of Islamabad for long to take action against Haqqani network and other banned outlets, to sanction Pakistan for sponsoring terrorism.
Contrary to the expectation of New Delhi, the US clearly ruled out any sanctions against Pakistan, which according to the US State Department engaged in a serious fight against terrorists. Last month New Delhi tried to disrupt the growing ties between Russian Federation and Pakistan, and urged Moscow to not carry out joint military exercise in Pakistan, but the Indian plea was rejected. Tension between India and Pakistan, the two South Asian rival armed with nuclear arsenal, enhanced when India started using of force against Kashmiris who have been protesting since July against killing of pro-freedom fighter Burhan Wani.
So far over a hundred Kashmiris were killed and thousands injured while numerous of young people have been blinded using pellet guns against them. Kashmiri leadership among thousands people were arrested. Pakistan launched worldwide campaign to highlight the human rights violation by India in Kashmir. India also found the Uri attack, that killed 19 of it’s soldiers in September, to refresh its blames regarding Pakistan’s sponsorship to terrorists. While blaming the later for the attack, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to isolate Pakistan and started beating the drums in the world that Islamabad is protecting terrorists. As a first step, New Delhi persuaded regional countries like Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Afghanistan to not participate in SAARC summit that was to be held in November in Pakistan saying terrorism and cooperation cannot go together. The regional situation encouraged New Delhi to isolate Pakistan. At the regional level, Islamabad ties with Kabul are marred with mistrust and its ties with Dhaka are not going well. Iran has signed more pacts in various fields with India than it have with Pakistan. The situation in the region India tries to exploit. New Delhi reportedly had strategy to utilise two other forums in South Asia for isolating Pakistan but at the same time Islamabad has option for that too and the India’s assessment in this connection is based on some miscalculations.
DG-level talks: Pakistan, India officials to meet this week in Lahore
Pakistan has potential to revamp ties and balance the emerging Indian strategy in South Asia. Pakistan role for stability in Afghanistan, a landlocked country which needs access to Pakistani ports too, is important. Iran has also expressed its interest in Pakistani port of Gwadar. The recent statement by the Afghan Ambassador Omer Zakhilwal to join China Pakistan Economic Corridor is a manifestation of the India’s miscalculation. India is also ignoring location of Pakistan, which is a gateway to both Central Asia and South Asia as well as to the Gulf region while also bordering important regional power China
India has reportedly expedited efforts to launch initiative for cooperation among BBIN member countries including Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal. Soon after threatening Pakistan of isolation, the Indian government worked hard to release action plan for another regional forum called South Asia Sub-regional Economic Cooperation programme comprised of India, Bangladesh, Bhuttan, Maldives and Srilanka. In South Asia, Bangladesh and other countries, where China is fetching significant investment, have started to isolate themselves from India-Pakistan tension. The recent interview of Bangladeshi PM Sheikh Hasina saying that her country had boycotted SAARC summit in Pakistan for its own reason, is an example. She also called upon the two countries to resolve the issues between them. Sri Lanka enjoys good ties with Pakistan and Nepal has urged the two countries to resolve their issues peacefully in the interest of the region. World responded differently to New Delhi’s efforts to isolate Pakistan. At the same time none of the countries has pressurised India to hold plebiscite in India’s held Kashmir and stop suppressing the protesters. China, the US and other powers including UN are stressing for resumption of dialogue between India and Pakistan as well as resolving the issues bilaterally. The diplomatic conflict between the two countries is proving a zero-sum game.
The disputes between India and Pakistan would never be resolved unless Islamabad and New Delhi make a serious move toward a solution. The world powers would never take side in Pak-India tensions. No doubt, Pakistan is all-weather friend of China but Beijing views India as its partner in trade. The US interests in the region are associated with the two nuclear-armed South Asian neighbours separately. Russia recently carried out joint military exercises with Pakistan, but at the same time signed defence deal with India and has strategic ties with it.
Due to existence of ‘mutually ensured destruction’ between India and Pakistan war is not possible and the tactical moves can never resolve the strategic issues between them. What option India and Pakistan has other than resumption of talks? Better to move from tactics to talks sooner rather than later.
The writer is an Islamabad-based journalist specialising in diplomatic and security issues.
Published in The Express Tribune, October 23rd, 2016.
When asked about Indian PM Narrendra Modi’s comments, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying urged the international community to enhance counter-terrorism cooperation. However she said, “We also oppose the linking of terrorism to any specific country, ethnicity or religion.” This is China's consistent position,” she told a daily news briefing inBeijing held after the BRICS Summit.
Indian army moves heavy artillery guns along LoC
Earlier, Modi had indicated that it would go ahead with its policy of isolating Pakistan and he had also invited Bangldesh, India, Myanmar, Srilanka Nepal, Thailand and Bhuttan — all members of The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Techinical and Economic Cooperation — to the BRICS Summit in the mid of October. Three days before the Summit in India’s Gao, China’s Vice Foreign Minister Li Baodong told reporters in New Delhi that no country should pursue its own political gains in the name of counterterrorism. BRICS was not the first occasion where India policy for isolating Pakistan met failure. India lobbied in different countries especially in the US, which has been demanding of Islamabad for long to take action against Haqqani network and other banned outlets, to sanction Pakistan for sponsoring terrorism.
Contrary to the expectation of New Delhi, the US clearly ruled out any sanctions against Pakistan, which according to the US State Department engaged in a serious fight against terrorists. Last month New Delhi tried to disrupt the growing ties between Russian Federation and Pakistan, and urged Moscow to not carry out joint military exercise in Pakistan, but the Indian plea was rejected. Tension between India and Pakistan, the two South Asian rival armed with nuclear arsenal, enhanced when India started using of force against Kashmiris who have been protesting since July against killing of pro-freedom fighter Burhan Wani.
So far over a hundred Kashmiris were killed and thousands injured while numerous of young people have been blinded using pellet guns against them. Kashmiri leadership among thousands people were arrested. Pakistan launched worldwide campaign to highlight the human rights violation by India in Kashmir. India also found the Uri attack, that killed 19 of it’s soldiers in September, to refresh its blames regarding Pakistan’s sponsorship to terrorists. While blaming the later for the attack, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to isolate Pakistan and started beating the drums in the world that Islamabad is protecting terrorists. As a first step, New Delhi persuaded regional countries like Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Afghanistan to not participate in SAARC summit that was to be held in November in Pakistan saying terrorism and cooperation cannot go together. The regional situation encouraged New Delhi to isolate Pakistan. At the regional level, Islamabad ties with Kabul are marred with mistrust and its ties with Dhaka are not going well. Iran has signed more pacts in various fields with India than it have with Pakistan. The situation in the region India tries to exploit. New Delhi reportedly had strategy to utilise two other forums in South Asia for isolating Pakistan but at the same time Islamabad has option for that too and the India’s assessment in this connection is based on some miscalculations.
DG-level talks: Pakistan, India officials to meet this week in Lahore
Pakistan has potential to revamp ties and balance the emerging Indian strategy in South Asia. Pakistan role for stability in Afghanistan, a landlocked country which needs access to Pakistani ports too, is important. Iran has also expressed its interest in Pakistani port of Gwadar. The recent statement by the Afghan Ambassador Omer Zakhilwal to join China Pakistan Economic Corridor is a manifestation of the India’s miscalculation. India is also ignoring location of Pakistan, which is a gateway to both Central Asia and South Asia as well as to the Gulf region while also bordering important regional power China
India has reportedly expedited efforts to launch initiative for cooperation among BBIN member countries including Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal. Soon after threatening Pakistan of isolation, the Indian government worked hard to release action plan for another regional forum called South Asia Sub-regional Economic Cooperation programme comprised of India, Bangladesh, Bhuttan, Maldives and Srilanka. In South Asia, Bangladesh and other countries, where China is fetching significant investment, have started to isolate themselves from India-Pakistan tension. The recent interview of Bangladeshi PM Sheikh Hasina saying that her country had boycotted SAARC summit in Pakistan for its own reason, is an example. She also called upon the two countries to resolve the issues between them. Sri Lanka enjoys good ties with Pakistan and Nepal has urged the two countries to resolve their issues peacefully in the interest of the region. World responded differently to New Delhi’s efforts to isolate Pakistan. At the same time none of the countries has pressurised India to hold plebiscite in India’s held Kashmir and stop suppressing the protesters. China, the US and other powers including UN are stressing for resumption of dialogue between India and Pakistan as well as resolving the issues bilaterally. The diplomatic conflict between the two countries is proving a zero-sum game.
The disputes between India and Pakistan would never be resolved unless Islamabad and New Delhi make a serious move toward a solution. The world powers would never take side in Pak-India tensions. No doubt, Pakistan is all-weather friend of China but Beijing views India as its partner in trade. The US interests in the region are associated with the two nuclear-armed South Asian neighbours separately. Russia recently carried out joint military exercises with Pakistan, but at the same time signed defence deal with India and has strategic ties with it.
Due to existence of ‘mutually ensured destruction’ between India and Pakistan war is not possible and the tactical moves can never resolve the strategic issues between them. What option India and Pakistan has other than resumption of talks? Better to move from tactics to talks sooner rather than later.
The writer is an Islamabad-based journalist specialising in diplomatic and security issues.
Published in The Express Tribune, October 23rd, 2016.