Hekmatyar’s last fling?

Peace deal between Hekmatyar & Afghan govt is unlikely to bring about any change in fortunes of Afghanistan

The peace agreement that is said to be in the offing between the Kabul administration and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s Hizb-e-Islami Afghanistan (HIA) if and when it is actually signed and sealed is likely to lessen one of the worries of President Ashraf Ghani, no matter how insignificant, but it would certainly save the HIA chief from becoming completely irrelevant to the developing situation in Afghanistan. But beyond that this deal is not likely to bring about any qualitative change in the fortunes of Afghanistan. The HIA chief is the least of the four worries that face President Ghani currently. The Taliban are his first and foremost worry, followed by his partner, the Chief Executive of the Unity government Abdullah Abdullah, the Haqqanis and the HIA. The highly successful hit-and-run spring offensive of the Taliban have severely tested Kabul’s defensive capacities almost unhinging the government and emboldening in the process Abdullah Abdullah to mount severe criticism against President Ghani accusing him of failing to work collaboratively and deeming him undeserving to serve the government. This has raised fresh questions about the stability of the coalition formed in 2014 after both Ghani and Abdullah claimed victory in a presidential election and there were fears of armed clashes between their supporters. And Ghani still believes that the deadly but elusive Haqqanis continue to enjoy their safe havens in Pakistan and are mounting their armed campaigns from across the safety of Durand Line despite Rawalpindi’s claims of Zarb-e-Azb’s successes against both the ‘good’ and ‘bad’ Taliban.

So, in the face of these worries, a peace deal with the HIA which over the years has been losing its public support as well as its dedicated armed cadre can hardly be a significant consolation for President Ghani. It is still not very clear who between the two had initiated the peace process. Both perhaps were equally willing because of their respective compulsions and responded to the other’s initiative readily. One, however, suspects it was the initiative of Hekmatyar who at the fag end of his political career wanted perhaps to go down in a blaze of glory. But while the process once it leads to an agreement would certainly bring Gulbuddin out of his long-drawn isolation and in his opinion make his party once again relevant to the current developments in Afghanistan. The government forces would hardly feel any lessening of pressure on them because of the peace deal with the HIA which has not been known lately to have possessed any significant firepower or had had any noteworthy successes in the battlefield either against the government forces or against their arch-rivals, the Taliban, who are hardly likely to respond positively to Gulbuddin’s call days after striking the landmark peace deal inviting the Taliban to become part of the reconciliation process. Isn’t it ironic that the very man who had in the first place destroyed any prospects of a Mujahideen-led multi-faction government in Kabul after the collapse of the Soviet backed communist regime in 1992 by bombarding the Afghan capital with rockets is now talking of peace and appealing to all Afghans to resolve problems through an intra-Afghan dialogue. Again ironically enough, after having served as Prime Minister in Kabul from March 1993 till January 1994 but not satisfied with his share of power in the government he tried to topple Rabbani’s Islamic government by force. His rocket attacks had almost completely destroyed Kabul. In late 1996, the Taliban overran Kabul and forced Rabbani and Hekmatyar to flee north. Since then, he has been out of the reckoning in the Afghan power play. Senility has perhaps taken over his mental faculties because after having entered into to a peace process with the government of Ghani he is assuring the Taliban that the HIA would support their genuine demands and also demand the release of several important commanders of the Taliban’. The US-backed Kabul administration is hardly in a position to concede to such demands.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 18^th, 2016.

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