Pakistan

Analysis: What can Pakistan do right in the face of India’s growing military might

‘Military expenditure’ is wider term compared to ‘arms spending’, refering to all govt expenses on military forces

Naveed Ahmad April 07, 2016

PHOTO: AFP

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) registered a $1.7 trillion increase in military spending in 2015. Its depiction in percentage (1%) by news sources worldwide does not paint a proper picture.

‘Military expenditure’ is a wider term compared to ‘arms spending’ as it refers to all government expenses on current military forces and activities, including salaries and benefits, operational expenses, arms and equipment purchases, military construction, research and development and central administration, command and support.

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Defence anxieties

Last year’s data brings India to the sixth place, moving up a notch from 2014. The spending trajectory is on the rise there too. So will be the case with China, Saudi Arabia and Russia. Interestingly, Pakistan does not rank among top 15 military spenders. Unlike India and Iran, Islamabad has not been able to allocate funds for military modernisation due to domestic financial conditions.

In 2015, India registered an 11% increase in military expenditure, with acquisition of the latest nuclear submarines, INS Arihant, being the highlight. The $3 billion strategic vessel that cleared all sea trials is definitely worrisome for Pakistan as it gives Delhi assured second-strike capability in a nuclear standoff. This was followed with the purchase of 36 Rafael fighter jets from France in addition to 270 Russia-made SU-30MKIs, making the threat more real for Islamabad amid no progress in composite dialogue – renamed after Modi government as comprehensive dialogue – on dispute resolution.

National Security Adviser Lieutenant General (retd) Nasir Khan Janjua highlighted the same in a seminar the other day. He minced no words while stating India’s soaring military expense threatens Pakistan’s and the region’s peace.

The current spending of $9.5 billion does not help maintain a balance of power to preserve the status quo. The Modi government has aggressively pursued a policy of encircling and isolating Pakistan. The recent arrests of over a dozen spies allegedly affiliated with RAW have heightened the existing mistrust.

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How to manage risk

Not only does Pakistan Navy need more financing for a modern, conventional fleet to secure its sea lanes in the tense Arabian Sea, but also to meet the undeniable necessity for an assured second-strike capability.

Pakistan spent around $1 billion more in 2015. The trend is likely to continue. Islamabad has never tried to match India’s military spending but has still managed to equip itself sufficiently to match the rival’s arsenal.

Though the domestic arms industry is under-marketed due to a multitude of factors, including bureaucratic ill management, the time to achieve dividends is nearing. With the delivery of JF Thurder-17s to friendly countries and more projected sales, the military will be increasing its share of exports.

The state-owned conglomerate Pakistan Ordnance Factories (POF) already exports small arms to more than 30 countries worth nearly $100 million. Since Pakistan Army is evaluating various options to replace existing utility arm, G3, Islamabad will be spending significant sums for POF plant modernisation if the decision is made during the fiscal year 2016-2017.

While heavy reliance on the indigenous defence industry may save precious financial resources, the non-stop western technology transfer and next generation arms sale to India does not leave Islamabad with any option but to increase its military expenditure. Some officials believe that Pakistan’s defence outlay for 2016-2017 may register further a increase of $1.5 billion. However, nothing is on the record yet.

Given rising global tensions, Pakistan’s increase in defence spending is unlikely to rank the country amongst top 15 military spenders. In 2016, Iran is set to spend heavily on defence modernisation. If the price of oil bounces back, Gulf States as well as South American countries will be increasing their military expenditure.

Naveed Ahmad is a Pakistani investigative journalist and academic with extensive reporting experience in the Middle East and North Africa. He is based in Doha and Istanbul. He tweets @naveed360

COMMENTS (45)

True blue Indian | 8 years ago | Reply @Javed Mirani: Well Pakistan or for that matter you won't be there to see Punjab or Kashmir for tht matter India has active nuclear triad & policy of inflicting unacceptable damage by Massive retaliatory 2nd strike So once Pakistan makes a mistake of Nuking India , consider it's off the world map. Btw all these are just fantasies , No one gonna use Nukes like ever , keep wasting money on building & maintaining Nukes .. After all they are nothing but Fancy toys you won't ever get to play with Rather than dreaming of Nuking India , you should focus on studies , get some good education & be an Asset for Pakistan's development. Nukes are no Toy boy.

True blue Indian | 8 years ago | Reply @Maqbool: "Good taliban against India and Afghanistan " Wow ! I guess you guys have tried that already This mentally harming Pakistan & you can see the results for yourself..

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Jag Nathan | 8 years ago | Reply @Javed Mirani: "North and mid India will a graveyard" - What do you think will happen to Pakistan? It will be a radioactive desert for eons to come. How do yo think eh world will react -both Pakistan and India will be pariah nations, treated like lepers in the community of nations. No one would want to sit with us and no one would want to shake our hands and that would include your best friend of this day - the Chinese. Nukes are a zero sum game. There is no question of splitting Kashmir. The only question in consideration is when is Pakistan vacating Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. Indians are not scared of your nukes (an you dont have to be scared of ours if you like) for you can never ever use them for the aforesaid reasons. And there is no escaping of the Indian conventional and economic might.

Anonymous Wellwisher | 8 years ago | Reply Its sad to see people fighting instead of caring for needy, poor and those who need kindness. Humanity!

Mostly Bull | 8 years ago | Reply @Javed Mirani.....how much compensation...?......to be paid from Panama or IMF or WB or ADB or Chu Chiang $ 46 Billion...? How can one apply....?

Javed Mirani | 8 years ago | Reply @Jag Nathan: second strike will save south India and east India. North and mid India will a graveyard. Split Kashmir like they did Punjab and Bengal and compensation the ones move out of India, May to Australia or South America.

Jag Nathan | 8 years ago | Reply The only way peace will be achieved will be by Pakistan's unconditional withdrawal from Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. Pakistan can build all the nukes it likes and spend billions it does not have to maintain and safe keep them. It still will not be able to ward off the Indian nuclear and conventional might. A lot Pakistanis seem to think they can nuke India. It might be a good idea to realize that India has a robust 2nd Strike capability and the consequences would be catastrophic.

sami shahid | 8 years ago | Reply don't worry....china is there to compete with India....India wont be able to use all of its resources

Pankaj | 8 years ago | Reply @Khan: Why does the same not apply to Balochistan then?

Girish | 8 years ago | Reply @Ghazi: Go spend more money on educating yourself and your nation. And please do verify Pakistan studies material from an independent source.

Agrippa - The Skeptic | 8 years ago | Reply @Ghazi: India will never dare to attack Pakistan If it was soo easy to conquer pakistan then India might have conquered it in Past 60 years ... Why do you think that in today's world India would want to "conquer" Pakistan? Checkmating Pakistan in it's "war of thousand cuts" yes, not letting go Kashmir - yes, but conquer Pakistan . seriously? India is struggling with the weight of its own myriad problems. Every little war sets the economy of a country back by a few decades. India's political leader may be corrupt and vain but they certainly aren't schizophrenic.

G. Din | 8 years ago | Reply @Ghazi: "Pakistan can strike with nuclear warheads if needed." Please don't forget to invite us for the show.

Muhibullah | 8 years ago | Reply @Prada: The present day residents of Kashmir are descendants of the same people that lived there 5000 years ago.

Ghazi | 8 years ago | Reply India will never dare to attack Pakistan If it was soo easy to conquer pakistan then India might have conquered it in Past 60 years.Pakistan have much resources to reply to India and Pakistan can strike with nuclear warheads if needed.

Rollin & Trollin | 8 years ago | Reply Developed human resources first and foremost ! Ban first cousin marriages and impose a limit of one child per family to boost average IQ.

Shakti | 8 years ago | Reply The only way towards peace is for Pakistan to give up PoK peacefully.

Prada | 8 years ago | Reply @Khan: "Kashmir belongs to its native people..." Do you know who the native people of Kashmir are? Do you know who the invaders are? India has a 5000 year history in Kashmir. Look it up, mate.

Agrippa - The Skeptic | 8 years ago | Reply @Weirdity: @Rex Minor: “diologue and reconciliation and even appeasment if one will but not confrontation is the only way to peace in our times” You are very unpatriotic pakistani As per your definition, perhaps yes. But a true patriot wants peace and well being for his nation. Dialogue, reconciliation, and no confrontation will help usher in peace. Perhaps you should re-visit your own definition of patriot.

Rajesh | 8 years ago | Reply "Ek bhai doosre bhai ke khoon ka pyaasa" Insaan insaaniyat ke khoon ka pyaasa". I donot know where we are heading, another iraq or yemen or syria in making.

wiserneighbour | 8 years ago | Reply @Grace: just look at the Pakistani poverty levels in today's paper itself. Holier than thou won't work any more.

Khan | 8 years ago | Reply @Pops:

Vacate POK and peace will be assured in the neighberhood

How ironic .. Kashmir belongs to its native people and the only side that has over half a million boots on the ground and unrest is IOK. For peace in the region both countries must stop their interference in Kashmir and instead focus on human development and economies, especially Pakistan.

Javed Mirani | 8 years ago | Reply Pakistan should put their neuclear Arsenal on full alert and negotiate with good faith. Let world supper power that if they want to basically don't address pak legitimate concern, only push forward only Indian position and not pressure India and Afghanistan to stop flaming insurgence in baloach, and revive Kashmir plebiscite in UN. Also make remarks like Indian raw has office in whitehouse . So many Indian origin or relative of Indain origin in White House. Indian origin us citizen make so much contributing to US election, when Pakistani rich blowing money in Dubai real state or fancy car in US. Media should write how Indians are buying their way in White House and congress.

Tp | 8 years ago | Reply A good start might be to rein in elements like Hafiz Saeed and Masood Azhar.

DNiwasi | 8 years ago | Reply @Vasu: By now you should know that the ruling elite in Pakistan focus is just like the Mughals had- only keeping themselves in power, nothing much else. To assure this, they will go to any extent to be muscular and be able to look India in the eye. Without any other strength they feel weak and vulnerable. They will match expenditure only in weapons enough to deter a deathly blow to India, if needed.

Bharat | 8 years ago | Reply India defence budget is to match that of China or China+Pakistan.............. Pakistan figure far below the major strategic threat to Indian security except terrorism & nukes. So chill.... India never attacked nor will it attack Pakistan in future.

SKS | 8 years ago | Reply Here is the simple solution, remove your strategic assets i,e non-state actors and I am sure India will side with you. But you will buy all kinds of mass weapons rather than address the camel in the tent.

Weirdity | 8 years ago | Reply @Rex Minor: "diologue and reconciliation and even appeasment if one will but not confrontation is the only way to peace in our times" You are very unpatriotic pakistani

Pakistani | 8 years ago | Reply @Vasu: As a Pakistani I completely agree with you

sami shahid | 8 years ago | Reply Pakistan does not need to worry a lot....Pakistan should just increase the number of its paramilitary forces on the western border.....replace its F-16's.....get a new rifle for its infantry on the eastern and northern border.

Pops | 8 years ago | Reply Vacate POK and peace will be assured in the neighberhood. No need to compete with India on defense.

Grace | 8 years ago | Reply @curious2: Everyone wants peace but the British made sure to create problems by denying the wishes of Kashmiris to join Pakistan back in 1947. There is no problem between India and Pakistan apart from occupied Kashmir which should be resolved according to the wishes of the majority people there. Even if India spends more and more on its military, how does it help the extreme poverty there? Even if Pak's army is smaller, it's about the soldier or airman who will do the fighting and not just the equipment. So let India waste billions because it will still be Indians who are in the planes or driving the tanks.

sankar | 8 years ago | Reply nice article man a neutral one

HZR | 8 years ago | Reply The economies being asymmetrical and given the nature and health of the Pakistan' Industry,Pakistan realistically should not look for parity in defence.Of course there is always the hope that China will bail it out but then the question for how long and at what cost.Certainly china will not loose out in the economic and money making game due to sentiments.

Rex Minor | 8 years ago | Reply @curious2 You said it Sir. A diologue and reconciliation and even appeasment if one will but not confrontation is the only way to peace in our times. What are the gains for the people of a country whose leaders are transferring their wealth outside the country and their army and airforce are willfully combating the civilians in the land while the masses are pouring out of their borders in search of employment to survive? Rex Mnor

curious2 | 8 years ago | Reply Here's an alternative strategy - doesn't cost anything and results in improved economy, jobs, and better international reputation. Make peace.

observer | 8 years ago | Reply The $3 billion strategic vessel that cleared all sea trials is definitely worrisome for Pakistan as it gives Delhi assured second-strike capability in a nuclear standoff. In standard English 'Second-Strike' presumes the existence of 'First- Strike'. And, thereby hangs a tale. Pakistan reserves the option of 'First-Strike' i.e. the use of Nuclear Weapons as and when it chooses. India, on the other hand states that it will not be the first country to use nuclear weapons in a conflict, but it will retaliate if attacked. If there is anything 'Worrisome' here, it is the Doctrine of First Use. If Pakistan does not choose 'First Strike' there is little to worry about 'Second Strike Capability'. I trust the position is clear.

qasim | 8 years ago | Reply stolen by raw agents

Mudassar Rana | 8 years ago | Reply The reality is there is no need to match india's spending. We need to maintain simply sufficient deterrent to ensure that India does not think of full scale war - i.e a nuclear deterrent. Our immediate dangers are indian infiltration into baluchistan and the Fata areas. We need to ensure that we are able to neutralise this threat from border regions. We have little choice but to ensure greater co-operation with the chinese,turks and russians.

Feroz | 8 years ago | Reply In an Arms race India will bleed Pakistan to death. If that does not, the snakes bred will do the job.

Rahul | 8 years ago | Reply The United States bankrupted the former Soviet Union by getting it to engage in an arms race it could not afford. Maybe India is trying to do the same to Pakistan.

Maqbool | 8 years ago | Reply Already spending fifty percent of budget on defense. To give a fitting reply to India, we should not lag behind spending balance fifty percent. We have to start a big 'good Taliban' force against Afghanistan and India.

Harris | 8 years ago | Reply It's simple, those who have good economy and big forex reserve can afford to increase expenditure on their security......nothing wrong in it

Harris | 8 years ago | Reply It's simple, those who have good economy and big forex reserve can afford to increase expenditure on their security....

Vasu | 8 years ago | Reply My dear author, not only defence, but India has increased its infrastructure, education and social budget also....so will you increase your education, social budget also, just because India has increased too.....and BTW India has sufficient funds and resources to keep good defense budget, it's not dependent on borrowed money and loans

PrakashG | 8 years ago | Reply Make strategic nukes and hope that they do not get stolen?

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