Marching towards the long-awaited census
No national plan can be expected to realise its goals in the absence of an up-to-date national head-count estimate
Utmost care must be taken to complete this task in a transparent manner so that the credibility of the data gathered would stand the accuracy test. PHOTO: RIAZ AHMED/EXPRESS
In a move that can perhaps be regarded as nationally the most important and the most urgent of the year thus far, the government has decided to hold the nationwide census, delayed by almost a generation, in March-April this year. The exercise has always been a politically explosive issue, as on its basis seats of the National Assembly are decided. In addition, it is important to note that population carries the highest weight — 82 per cent — in the allocation of financial resources from the federation to the provinces. For these reasons alone, each province, in fact, each administrative unit down to the level of cities, towns and villages, uses all the tricks of the trade to manipulate the exercise in its favour by exaggerating its respective population bulge. An attempt made by the PPP government in 2011 to hold the census remained unsuccessful after glaring irregularities surfaced in the house listing process in Karachi and Balochistan.
It is important to realise that no national plan, irrespective of its objectives, but especially one with an overwhelming socioeconomic bias, can be expected to realise its goals in the absence of an up-to-date and accurate national head-count estimate. Take, for example, the annual budgets. No annual budget — federal, provincial or even local — based on a population census as outdated as the one that we have been using since 2003, the year the 1998 census had expired, or an updated one with an exaggerated head count, can be regarded as a balance sheet of income and expenditure worth the bother of a serious debate, either inside the elected houses or outside. At best, these budgets would amount to no more than fictional balance sheets and, therefore, the chances are they would end up adding to national woes rather than alleviating them.
In view of the above, the governments of the day at the national as well as at the provincial levels need to keep their own political interests from dictating the course of the exercise in order to be able to complete the task strictly in accordance with the national objective of arriving at a fairly accurate national head count. One major problem that the exercise is going to face would be to keep the Afghan refugees, who have obtained CNICs, out of this head count. This is expected to be a nationwide problem as such individuals are found all over the country. To address a similar issue in Punjab, the provincial government has undertaken an exercise, called geo-tagging, to identify those Afghans who have obtained Pakistani CNICs. The services of NADRA and the intelligence agencies could also be pressed into identifying Afghan nationals, besides making use of the geo-tagging mechanism.
On the face of it, the government’s preparations for the task appear to be on the right track. More than 100,000 trained people are expected to participate in the effort. For example, around 10,000 officials will take part in the exercise across Bahawalpur Division alone. Blocks of between 200 to 250 houses have been earmarked in this regard in the rural areas. The total number of blocks devised on this front stand at 84,000. The formulation of maps of these are said to be nearing completion. Teams constituted to conduct the census would go door-to-door to collect data. Here, it is extremely important that foolproof arrangements are made to ensure the safety of such teams.
Census committees have been constituted at the division, district and tehsil levels to supervise the effort’s conduct. Utmost care must be taken to complete this task in a transparent manner so that the credibility of the data gathered would stand the accuracy test. The census reports are expected to be completed by December 2017. Advisedly, qualified and highly reputed statisticians are expected to be co-opted as members of the technical committee to provide professional input during the various stages of the conduct of the census. The government has very rightly decided to engage 207,500 people to reach more than 165,000 census blocks, showing workforce requirements to be 60 per cent higher than during the conduct of the 1998 census. At the end of the day, what is important is that a demographic picture of the country, which is as accurate as possible, emerges following this mega exercise.
Published in The Express Tribune, January 10th, 2016.
It is important to realise that no national plan, irrespective of its objectives, but especially one with an overwhelming socioeconomic bias, can be expected to realise its goals in the absence of an up-to-date and accurate national head-count estimate. Take, for example, the annual budgets. No annual budget — federal, provincial or even local — based on a population census as outdated as the one that we have been using since 2003, the year the 1998 census had expired, or an updated one with an exaggerated head count, can be regarded as a balance sheet of income and expenditure worth the bother of a serious debate, either inside the elected houses or outside. At best, these budgets would amount to no more than fictional balance sheets and, therefore, the chances are they would end up adding to national woes rather than alleviating them.
In view of the above, the governments of the day at the national as well as at the provincial levels need to keep their own political interests from dictating the course of the exercise in order to be able to complete the task strictly in accordance with the national objective of arriving at a fairly accurate national head count. One major problem that the exercise is going to face would be to keep the Afghan refugees, who have obtained CNICs, out of this head count. This is expected to be a nationwide problem as such individuals are found all over the country. To address a similar issue in Punjab, the provincial government has undertaken an exercise, called geo-tagging, to identify those Afghans who have obtained Pakistani CNICs. The services of NADRA and the intelligence agencies could also be pressed into identifying Afghan nationals, besides making use of the geo-tagging mechanism.
On the face of it, the government’s preparations for the task appear to be on the right track. More than 100,000 trained people are expected to participate in the effort. For example, around 10,000 officials will take part in the exercise across Bahawalpur Division alone. Blocks of between 200 to 250 houses have been earmarked in this regard in the rural areas. The total number of blocks devised on this front stand at 84,000. The formulation of maps of these are said to be nearing completion. Teams constituted to conduct the census would go door-to-door to collect data. Here, it is extremely important that foolproof arrangements are made to ensure the safety of such teams.
Census committees have been constituted at the division, district and tehsil levels to supervise the effort’s conduct. Utmost care must be taken to complete this task in a transparent manner so that the credibility of the data gathered would stand the accuracy test. The census reports are expected to be completed by December 2017. Advisedly, qualified and highly reputed statisticians are expected to be co-opted as members of the technical committee to provide professional input during the various stages of the conduct of the census. The government has very rightly decided to engage 207,500 people to reach more than 165,000 census blocks, showing workforce requirements to be 60 per cent higher than during the conduct of the 1998 census. At the end of the day, what is important is that a demographic picture of the country, which is as accurate as possible, emerges following this mega exercise.
Published in The Express Tribune, January 10th, 2016.