Does Tennis stand on the brink of a new era?

KARACHI: They say that men's tennis is witnessing a new era, that the old guard is falling and the chasing pack is finally closing in on the centre stage, if not occupying it every now and then already.

Whispers about the demise of the ‘Big Four’ have been getting louder so the question that lingers on is; are Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray as dominant as they used to be?

With only the Davis Cup to be played, the 2014 season nears its end. We have the stats at hand, and we know the rankings. Djokovic, whose season witnessed an 'awkward end' at the ATP World Tour Finals as he was given a walkthrough in the final as Federer pulled out, is at the top of the standings. Federer and Nadal follow close behind. Murray, however, languishes at sixth, but chances are this has just been a blip year for him rather than a permanent drop.

Many would say it’s the ‘Djokovic era’, while those with Nadal inclinations would claim he joins the Serb in the new ‘Big Two’. The two boast win percentages in excess of 83% over the past couple of years and combined, they’ve won more than half of the last 12 grand slams between themselves, with seven. The Serb may not challenge Nadal and Federer in terms of grand slam wins, but the usual yardsticks of success – year end number one, title wins and winning percentage – leave him above the chasing pack almost unrivalled.

Meanwhile, it has been a loss to the sport that Nadal has been plagued by injuries of late, but he has managed a comeback before too, so there is every reason to hope.

Federer, on the other hand, has definitely bounced back from a mediocre 2013, but his age, factored in with small wins during the year and tiresome battles at the grand slams, show he still has the desire but his legs and body are failing him. The biggest indictment of it coming in the World Tour final when he was forced to withdraw due to a back injury.

As for Murray, he’s had a catastrophic year, and only made it past the quarter-finals of a grand slam on one occasion; at the French Open.

All those backing the ‘new-generation-has-arrived’ ideology will cite 26-year-old Marin Cilic, ranked ninth in the world, as an example. Cilic stunned the world by emerging victorious in the US Open, with his victory over Japanese sensation Kei Nishikori in the final breaking all sorts of records.

Not only was it the first Grand Slam final in almost 10 years that did not feature a player from the Big Four, but it was also the first time the two finalists were ranked outside the top 10 since 1997. However, in a year that ended with four singles titles for him, including Zagreb, Delray Beach and Moscow, and a 54-21 win-loss ratio, the Croatian may have created a small dent in the domination, but has a long way to go before he causes a lasting upheaval.

Twenty-four-year-old Nishikori defeated Djokovic on his way to becoming the first Asian to reach a Grand Slam final; the first man to do so at the Flushing Meadows since 2009. That win spoke volumes on its own, with the addition of his disposal of Raonic and Wawrinka in five sets dispelling the notion that physical fragility would not let him get too far. Formerly known as Project 45 – the highest ranking for a Japanense before Nishikori began his career was 46 – the youngster has come a long way.

Another player knocking on the Big Four’s door is 23-year-old Milos Raonic, a big-serving right-hander with a booming forehand and an apt nickname in ‘The Missile’, who became the first player born in the 90s to win two tour-level titles. Given his major improvement from being ranked 151 in 2010 to being in the top 10 three years later, the Canadian has shown sure signs of being able to challenge the existing order.

Raonic made his first quarter-final appearance at the French Open before losing to Djokovic and his first Grand Slam semi-final appearance at Wimbledon when he fell at the hands of Federer and it appears to be a case of when, rather than if, with the youngster. And of course, the five-setter epic against Nishikori at the US Open was another show of a player ready to fight to the top.

The man who stunned the world in the opening Major of the season – Australian Open – when he broke a 12-match losing streak against then number one Nadal in a four-set victory, Stan Wawrinka, is currently ranked fourth. However, despite opening the season on a high and ending at fourth, his inconsistencies this year show he has what it takes but needs to up the ante to be mentioned in the same breath as the present greats. His win-loss ratio for 2014 is 36-15. He won his first ATP World Tour Masters 1000 title at Monte-Carlo and, before the two wins in the Finals, had only won a single match since the US Open.

Another name worth the mention is Latvian Ernst Gulbis, whose best two grand slam performances have come at the French Open; reaching the semi-final this year and beating Federer along the way. He’s shown he has the consistency to move up in the world rankings; the current world number 13 was 10^th in June, a meteoric rise that saw him jump 115 spots since 2012.

And lastly Grigor Dimitrov, the Bulgarian number 11, who has won three singles titles this year and has a win-loss ratio of 50-18, is a player waiting to erupt. In February, he claimed his second tour-level title in Acapulco, while he downed Murray in the Wimbledon quarter-finals. He has unquestionable talent and with Roger Rasheed now at his side, there’s surely more to come from the 23-year-old.

All this points towards one thing; the young contenders are slowly but surely crawling their way up, but it will probably be three to five years before the Big Four can be overthrown. As Cilic pointed out earlier this year, they are the ‘second line’ and ‘would only get better, not worse’. For now, the old guard holds.

 

 

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