Polls in Delhi

Despite the chest thumping and the drum beating, there does not seem to be a wave in favour of the BJP in Delhi.

Delhi went to the polls on April 10 and after the frenetic campaign, it was time for the voter to cast his hard, cold, sober choice into the ballot box. And the voters did just that, with no drums beating, no bugles sounding, just sober queues outside the polling booths with the choice being registered quite seamlessly across the seven parliamentary constituencies.

It was apparent before the first half of the day was over that the choice for the Delhi voter was between the BJP and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). The Congress had been completely factored out, with perhaps only one seat where it could consider itself in the reckoning, or at least not staring at complete defeat.

But one major fact revealed itself in the Delhi elections, as indeed the polls in the other states that have taken place till now show. Despite the chest thumping and the drum beating, there does not seem to be a wave in favour of the BJP and its prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi. At least, not in this initial phase of voting. Delhi is a Congress and BJP city, with zero tolerance for other political parties. With the Congress out, the BJP was almost certain of generating a wave in its favour that would sweep through the seven parliamentary constituencies for a 7-0 victory. That might still happen but it is certain that the long-awaited Modi wave failed to happen. And the Delhi voter chose his or her candidate according to rational thought and not high voltage media propaganda.

As the elections near, there are indications of an opposition to the BJP in both Uttar Pradesh and Bihar as well. The consolidation that Modi had hoped for seems not to be taking place, although, of course, nothing is until it is in Indian elections. However, suffice it to say that the first murmurings that the polls are not stamped and sealed in favour of one party are being heard even in the usually deaf power corridors of Delhi.

Corruption is an issue and here the AAP and Arvind Kejriwal have managed to dent the BJP’s claim of being honest and above corruption. The rather strong campaign by Kejriwal that has made him the target of both the Congress and the BJP, was listened to by the common person and impacted on many who realised that his charge of collusion between Modi and industrialists Ambani and Adani did have some basis, more so as this was not denied at any stage by the BJP or by Modi himself. Besides the BJPs decision to include well-known corrupt faces in its list of candidates has not gone well for the party in states like Karnataka.

Reports do suggest that just as the AAP remained a factor in Delhi despite the media insistence that it was over, Mayawati and the Bahujan Samaj Party remain a factor in Uttar Pradesh (UP). She is steadily gaining ground and while the test will be in the polling, UP is unlikely to be a walkover for the BJP. It is a similar story in Bihar where the media has written off Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his Janata Dal (U) but from where field reports suggest that he remains a strong factor in these elections. He and Mayawati are both the butt of rumours that they will join the BJP after the elections and it remains to be seen to what extent they are able to overcome this negative propaganda.

Secular India is tense as the results of these elections will impact on all the ideals that the independence struggle led by Mahatma Gandhi and others stood for and sought to enshrine in the Indian Constitution. It is a tough election but the initial phases have demonstrated that the Indian voter is meeting the challenge head on and has not lost his or her mind in the process. It does seem that every parliamentary constituency will be keenly contested now, as the main worry was about the possibility of a wave for Modi in the north. The south, as always, is marching to its own tune and its own considerations. But a disgruntled BJP in UP and a strong opposition in Bihar to the BJP is changing the scales from dismal to fair for the non-BJP parties in the fray.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 12^th, 2014.

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