This year’s commemoration of World Population Day was particularly salient, given that the global population has just surpassed 7 billion. We are living in a period of unprecedented demographic change. After growing very slowly for most of human history, the world’s population more than doubled to reach 6 billion in late 1999, and is being projected to grow to around 9 billion by 2050.
Most of this growth is taking place in less developed countries, where there is already a dearth of adequate resources. Conversely, people in the developed world are living longer and healthier lives, and despite having more resources at their disposal, choose to have fewer children.
Pakistan’s population is estimated to have exceeded 177 million, yet we have the highest population growth rate (2.03 per cent) amongst Saarc countries. Although our population growth trend is headed downwards, it is still not comparable to the population control in Indonesia, Iran or Bangladesh (which are also predominantly Muslim countries). A major factor for our population growth is unwanted births due to lack of contraception prevalence. Actual utilisation of contraception has stagnated at just 30 per cent for several years. Underage marriage and lack of sufficient birth spacing are also major problems, which lead to alarmingly high maternal as well as child mortality rates.
It is unfortunate that countries like Pakistan, India and even China have not overcome a strong preference for sons. While female infanticide is not considered a problem in Pakistan itself, the desire to have a son often leads to having numerous children. Since large family are considered a sign of male virility, fatalistic attitudes readily overshadow practical considerations concerning the parents capacity to adequately meet the needs of large families.
Many poor households cannot afford to invest in their progeny’s future, and instead are compelled to turn children into extra earning hands just to ensure household survival. The numerous children found labouring across our country are trapped into exploitative work arrangements, and are being deprived of adequate education or training opportunities. In turn, early marriages, and continued lack of family planning further perpetuates the vicious cycle of poverty and population growth.
Although Pakistan was among the first countries in Asia to have initiated a family planning programme, its population has gone up unsustainably. Unless more attention is paid to this issue, our country could become the world’s fourth most populous country in 2050.
Around 50 per cent of our population is below 20 years, and 60 per cent is below 30, presenting us with a unique demographic dividend to significantly boost national productivity. However, this potential is being tragically lost due to illiteracy, poverty, poor health, and lack of economic opportunities. Pakistan’s unharnessed youth bulge threatens fuelling the counterproductive scourge of militancy and social unrest.
Other multidimensional impacts of our high population growth are plain enough to see. Untenable population density has led to growing pressure on land, overcrowded cities, transport and electricity hassles, civil strife, high unemployment, inflation, poverty and an overall grave economic scenario. Future challenges of climate change, environmental degradation and water shortages are soon expected to add to the burden of our unmet basic needs.
While there is a host of serious socioeconomic challenges confronting the country right now, it would be wise to give due attention to the looming threat of further population growth, which will otherwise compound all our other existing problems.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 12th, 2011.
COMMENTS (14)
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@mazen:
The economic uplifting of the larger population from abject poverty into the middle class can only come with economic opportunities provided by an economy that demonstrates continuous growth over a period of time, when some of the important factors conducive to growth come together. However there is an examplery instance of Sri Lanka where even before the ecomomic takeoff, the rise in the percentile of the vast majority being educated and therefore mentally capable of taking the right decisions in terms of birth control has been two factors that in turn helped the economic takeoff itself. This takeoff was furthered with the help of an educated manpower available. It is a matter of understanding what needs to come first. But education and the unnecessary burden of the provision of basic food to many mouths in a family will still be the right stepping stone towards moving those mired in consistent poverty, to ecomomic opportunities available as a stepping stone into the middle class.
The single biggest issue facing Pakistan and the leftist keep chirping about secularism and neocon narratives.
@Nothing but the Truth:is the growth in population is only a pakistani phenomrna....how long you would keep your mind on the edge through niased views and perceptions?
Different versions suggest myriad of opinions regarding the phenomena of 'population explosion' in Pakistan and elsewhere in south Asia. Some may suggest that Pakistan has been at the crossroads due to over unproductive population. Many could argue that the reason that Pakistan is overpopulated because of lack of education. As I said earlier, different versions opined differently. The argument that state promote and entice people to generate more is naive and full of parochialism. Pakistan, where per capita income is mere little over $1000, is a country where almost half of its citizens live in abject poverty; what would one expect from them except from reproduction of their species. This problem cannot be resolved without addressing economic issues of those living in abject poverty, as they are the ones who produce more to subsist themselves. Even the basic education cannot be provided without a robust economy. So everything is integrated and there is a need to resolve all these problems simultaneously and not in isolation.
@antanu g: It's ok my friend, we understand your contempt for "science" and "facts" and "truth", why let little things such as these get in the way of your worldview? But please don't be a hypocrite and do stop enjoying the fruits of science, such as doctors and cars and phones and whatnot. Ok? Thanks!
@Abbas from the US: I think we will get to 400 million by 2050 if not earlier. The numbers could be effected by climate change and reduction in water availability. Which means in drought years we will face famine conditions that could worsen due to overpopulation and reduced farm acreage. Pakistan will implode long before that as political self-interest will carve up the area into 20 odd provinces fighting each other for resources. Eventually major powers will create their areas of interest and influence, that will eventually be the end. Not much to look forward to.
@Bilal Abdul Haque: we are human...not rats. likewise scientists say man was rvolved from monkey. do u accept?
Scientists have studied the effects of over population on laboratory rats. Rats when they become over populated they attack and eat each other. A huge part of our problems with militancy have been caused by over population. My father had six brothers and he would tell me if we had not left our village his brothers would have killed each over over dividing the land. If the population predictions that Abbas quotes come true then the future for Pakistan is very very scary.
Ask a mullah and the answer will be “ummat-e-Muhammadi” is on rise. Pakistan just cannot adjust with realities of time, be these social, economic, or political.
Deep state with its strategic depth policy sees population growth in Pakistan as a strategic tool to increase the number of Jihadis who can engage in jihads as Non State Actors and can be sacrificed around the world. There is no chance of population control becoming part of policies pursued in the Land of the Pure.
By the way I read an article by an enlightened Indian who also pointed out how his country is failing to address this population problem. His enlightened sentiment is missing in Pakistanis as evidenced by readers comments. Both Pakistan and India are heading for catastrophe. Both also cling to ancient urban systems unable to cope with modern pressures. As the intelligent Indian noted this would make the cities implode with the pressure. He also mentioned the China's massive migration;but unlike the primitive South Asian systems, the Chinese have modern local structures which all absorption of millions. See: http://daily.bhaskar.com/article/BIZ-FEA-opportunities-for-young-india-in-aeging-japan-1827806.html Opportunities for young India in ageing Japan!
Nice work but model of development need the human resources (young and male) this could lead the support to many functions as china and somehow india is doing the comperative progress of pakistan is even less to the india and china human production. according to many researches hihger brith rate would lead the emerging of economic and soical if policy makers may need to control the few indicators. therefore i would like to add these lines in yours view.... once again nice job thanks
There was another report in the Economist earlier on in the year where Pakistan's population was expected to rise to 339 million by 2040. If that report holds true by 2050 the Pakistani population would be expected to touch 400 milliion or more.
With all the complications associated with an uneducated population of militancy and possible social unrest, the years wasted in these unattainable objectives by allocating resources to defense as compared to education and public health will come back to haunt Pakistanis for generations.
The answer really is education, education, and education which should be our first priority. And along with that women's education and rights to control over reproductive issues. Even the lack of availablity of birth control condoms can be to some extent be overcome with education of the rhythm method of birth control which though not extremely effective at least provides significant drops in fertility rates.
The civilian government needs to work with whatever resources available to make education in simple birth control methods as the most important priority.
In developing countries family planning education was successful when women field educators were deployed. Of course, free male contraceptives and intrauterine device helps, as well.
One of the unintended consequences of population control in developing nations is that certain ethnic group/ tribe practice population control while some don't. In a long run this shifts the balance of the population, and inter tribal /ethnic conflicts are noted, if developments are not addressed concurrently.
The quest for son is a universal phenomenon even in west. However, the son is not at the expense of daughters. As more women enter work place, the child bearing age is postponed. And women's education gives them opportunity to enter work place which also increases their family income.