Analysis: Raiwind march and bad timing

Pakistan and India, the annoying twins born out of the Partition, are again on the brink of war. India is evacuating its border settlements and Pakistan just captured an enemy soldier; the tense situation between the two countries is only getting worse. At this crucial juncture when the focus of the government, armed forces and public alike is on Indian manoeuvres, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chief Imran Khan is marching towards Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s residence in Raiwind.

Just like many short-sighted decisions he has made in the past, Imran believes this is the right time to unseat his rival in the wake of Panama leaks. No leader requires sharp political acumen to realise that the timing of this march could not have been worse. Imran is more likely to be hated for going ahead with this street protest rather than displaying solidarity with the ruling party on a matter of national security.



Imran, whose party thrives on massive media coverage, has a lot to lose for not postponing the march to the PM’s house. With local TV channels upping the ante in response to Indian media’s ruthless attacks on everything Pakistani, Imran should know he will not be showered with uninterrupted airtime given in the past and might just be restricted to news bulletins and tickers. Even on social media, discussions on the escalating Pakistan and India situation are more likely to drown any noise PTI’s keyboard warriors will make.

Public support for Imran has also decreased over the years. And at this particular point in time, the PTI will only be criticised for dividing the nation for political gains. While public may be split along political, ethnic and religious lines, the country usually stands united in the face of foreign threats. And when the aggressor is India, emotions run high and differences are kept aside. As India continues to beat the war drums, Imran’s decision to march towards Raiwind may blow up in his own face causing severe damage to his political standing in the eyes of general public as well his supporters.



The march will not be effective also because major political parties rejected to support him in his latest endeavour to shake the Sharif kingdom. In an interesting and surprising move, even Tahirul Qadri distanced himself from besieging the house of the country’s ruler. This was another sign for the PTI chief to rethink the timing of his march; a delayed date would have given the party more time to convince opponents of PML – who are plenty – to join in and put up a consolidated and capable opposition.