The age of ‘insta-bombs'
'Insta-bombs' can be created by amateurs in weeks, using stolen radioactive materials
The writer served in the Pakistan Air Force as a fighter pilot for 35 years and is based in Islamabad
The use of nuclear weapons by terrorists in the present day is a possibility that cannot be overlooked. The dissolution of the Soviet Union brought in its wake the possibility of diversion of nuclear technology to undesirable hands. According to a CIA estimate, at least three per cent of Soviet tactical nuclear weapons are unaccounted for. But the erstwhile Soviet Union territories are not the only place that could be a potential source for terrorists to acquire nuclear materials; there are a number of other locations that could be tapped as well.
In 2013, around 140 cases of missing or unauthorised use of nuclear and radioactive materials were reported to the UN atomic agency. Among those that have lost potentially dangerous materials are Rolls Royce, a nuclear plant in Cumbria and the Royal Free Hospital in London. Missing items include Uranium, Ytterbium-169, Caesium-137, Cobalt-60 and Iodine-131. There have also been a large number of cases of theft of radioactive materials. Most of these reported incidents involve small quantities of radioactive material, which may not be sufficient for the creation of a nuclear bomb, but are good enough to make a crude nuclear device commonly called a ‘dirty bomb’. Such a bomb can affect a large area and for a long time. A dirty bomb can be assembled without technical know-how. Therefore, I believe that unfortunately, it is not a question of whether or not someone will acquire it, but of when and how often.
We in Pakistan have very stringent procedures to ensure that not an ounce of dangerous materials slip out of place. This, however, cannot be said for other countries having access to radioactive materials. A Uranium smuggling ring has already been discovered in India, after it passed materials worth £1 million out of that country, through Nepal. India’s Atomic Energy Regulatory Board’s annual reports reveal 16 cases of loss, theft, or misplacement of radioactive sources in India since 2001. In 11 cases, the source of the loss was never found.
What if the bad guys manage to get hold of Plutonium, Highly Enriched Uranium or Uranium 233 from any of the sources mentioned above? The Ford Foundation carried out a study to assess the odds. It calculated that just one person, working alone, could design and build a bomb within weeks. The conclusion was challenged and a TV producer commissioned a 20-year-old chemistry undergraduate to design one in five weeks. The student, having no previous knowledge of nuclear engineering and working alone, was given access to only public books and documents. He took three weeks to master the elements of nuclear engineering and another two to design the bomb, which he reckoned would need about 15 pounds of Plutonium. A nuclear scientist at the Swedish Ministry of Defence said that the bomb designed by the student had a fair chance of successful explosion. The student remarked that designing and building the bomb would not be harder than building a motorcycle.
Pakistan may be in a somewhat lucky situation because we don’t possess much to be blackmailed for, but the bigger powers and those aspiring to be big powers, need to worry. One of the natural fallouts of being a big power is that one has to face dangerous adversaries. The offshoot here is that an adversary of a big power might come into a position where it could commission or sponsor a terrorist to do the needful. I also believe that there is no shortage of people looking for sponsors. This is one area that all concerned need to be extremely wary of.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 27th, 2015.
In 2013, around 140 cases of missing or unauthorised use of nuclear and radioactive materials were reported to the UN atomic agency. Among those that have lost potentially dangerous materials are Rolls Royce, a nuclear plant in Cumbria and the Royal Free Hospital in London. Missing items include Uranium, Ytterbium-169, Caesium-137, Cobalt-60 and Iodine-131. There have also been a large number of cases of theft of radioactive materials. Most of these reported incidents involve small quantities of radioactive material, which may not be sufficient for the creation of a nuclear bomb, but are good enough to make a crude nuclear device commonly called a ‘dirty bomb’. Such a bomb can affect a large area and for a long time. A dirty bomb can be assembled without technical know-how. Therefore, I believe that unfortunately, it is not a question of whether or not someone will acquire it, but of when and how often.
We in Pakistan have very stringent procedures to ensure that not an ounce of dangerous materials slip out of place. This, however, cannot be said for other countries having access to radioactive materials. A Uranium smuggling ring has already been discovered in India, after it passed materials worth £1 million out of that country, through Nepal. India’s Atomic Energy Regulatory Board’s annual reports reveal 16 cases of loss, theft, or misplacement of radioactive sources in India since 2001. In 11 cases, the source of the loss was never found.
What if the bad guys manage to get hold of Plutonium, Highly Enriched Uranium or Uranium 233 from any of the sources mentioned above? The Ford Foundation carried out a study to assess the odds. It calculated that just one person, working alone, could design and build a bomb within weeks. The conclusion was challenged and a TV producer commissioned a 20-year-old chemistry undergraduate to design one in five weeks. The student, having no previous knowledge of nuclear engineering and working alone, was given access to only public books and documents. He took three weeks to master the elements of nuclear engineering and another two to design the bomb, which he reckoned would need about 15 pounds of Plutonium. A nuclear scientist at the Swedish Ministry of Defence said that the bomb designed by the student had a fair chance of successful explosion. The student remarked that designing and building the bomb would not be harder than building a motorcycle.
Pakistan may be in a somewhat lucky situation because we don’t possess much to be blackmailed for, but the bigger powers and those aspiring to be big powers, need to worry. One of the natural fallouts of being a big power is that one has to face dangerous adversaries. The offshoot here is that an adversary of a big power might come into a position where it could commission or sponsor a terrorist to do the needful. I also believe that there is no shortage of people looking for sponsors. This is one area that all concerned need to be extremely wary of.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 27th, 2015.