High Noon at half past Noon

And that’s how it happened. Yes, around the end of 2015 the verdict was out: there was no rival; there was no contender — and henceforth a walkover appeared imminent.

It was half past Noon but for Noon, was it high noon?

Now it’s N vs. N. The rest have been vanquished, or have fallen on their swords. The coast is clear for 2018. But wait. For the Sharifs, could there be grief in joy? As they purview the landscape, they see plenty that brings a smile to their lips. Their traditional nemesis, the Pakistan People’s Party, is whimpering like a crybaby in Sindh, clutching its toys and shrivelling into a corner. Once upon a time, the party was a colossus that straddled Pakistan. Today, the PPP is less a party and more an embarrassment.



The Sharifs shift their gaze and see the MQM beaten into submission and cowering somewhere in the urban sprawl of Karachi. Defanged and de-clawed, it has been reduced to a geeky kid eager to please the big boys any and every which way.

The brothers Sharif then focus their eyes on Punjab and here’s where their smile breaks into a huge grin. In the plateaus and fertile plains of their home province, they witness the scattered remains of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf — a party that shot itself in one foot, then the other and finally hacked its legs away with an electable machete.

Sharifs are now the last men standing. They are the masters of all. It’s high Noon at half past Noon.

So says the dominant narrative too. Enough of pseudo-revolutions and quasi-agitations, says the commentariat. Enough of convulsions and contortions; enough of tremors and aftershocks, and certainly enough of harping on the real or imagined electoral sins of 2013 — let us now move on with the business of the state. The narrative of stability and continuity; of gradual progress and of glacial evolution is now finding traction. Let Noon rule till 2018 and allow the ballot box to decide our political destiny. All this is very sombre, very mature, and very democratic.



And for Noon, very dangerous.

First, Noon faced the PTI. That threat is over for the time being. Now it faces people’s expectations. That’s a far deadlier foe than the PTI ever could be. And so far Noon is getting a thrashing — this despite the fact that the electoral battle has dramatically shrunk in size and scope. Gone are the days when it had to combat opponents in all corners of the country on all issues under the sun. Today Pakistan’s new political dynamics have thrown up a manageable battlefield for the main contestants.

Here’s how: foreign policy and national security are almost off the political table. India, Afghanistan, China and America are being handled by the other Sharif. So are most internal security issues revolving around the war against terrorists and their off-shoots. Noon can take pride in being the window-dressing, but it need not worry too much — the voters know who’s the real boss on this front.

To Noon then comes the responsibility for energy, inflation, health, education and possibly institutional reform that has a direct bearing on the lives of citizens.

Planning Commission and the PML-N

Geographically, too, it should be manageable for the incumbents. To win the Centre, Noon needs to win big in Punjab. Parliamentary mathematics ensures Noon can forsake Sindh and do fairly well in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan as long as the party romps home in Punjab. In fact, safely assuming that Noon will pick up an average number of seats in two smaller provinces, the battle royale comes down to Punjab — the Noon fortress. With the PPP six feet under, and the PTI smarting from repeated electoral humiliations, the next two years should be a walk in the park for Noon in our most populous province.

Their strategy is pretty straightforward: lock and load the tried and tested formulas of electoral science, and seal the deal with a dizzying performance of project-based governance success — all of which comes to fruition on the cusp of the election season.

The thana kachehry model mixed with the bricks-and-mortar formula, cemented with a narrative of can-do promise and deliver. That’s Noon for you at full past Noon.

Sounds good?

Not so fast. Punjab is arguably the most developed province in Pakistan and Lahore possibly the most manicured city in the country. So far so good. But the Shahbaz Sharif loyalists argue there is so much more to their model of governance than bridges and roads. They point to the fantastic work being done in areas of health and education; they boast of their Knowledge Park and Safe Water schemes as well as their whiz-kids transporting the province into the matrix of the digital world. They take pride in their long vision and short deadlines; in projects that are approved on a fast track and executed at breakneck speed. They mention amazing progress to revise school curriculums as well as incentivised plans to jack up literacy rates. There’s even talk of health reforms.



Fascinating, one may say. Which provincial government can compete with such performance? Which political leader can compete with such delivery?

But is the voter convinced? The result of NA-122 may say no. The truth is this performance and delivery is not selling itself because it is not being sold the way it can be sold. Noon runs a huge risk through this failure. If the voter gets dependent on big ticket items like energy, and Noon cannot deliver what it has promised, it could end up paying a very heavy price for it.

At half past Noon, Pakistanis do not have much to smile about. Falling oil prices have presented a windfall to Noon but it cannot take credit for low inflation and a modicum of economic stability. Institutional reform, required so desperately, is confined to thick files and thin intentions. If there has been one major success for the country since 2013, it is the operation against terrorists. Gen Sharif is winning this war not because of civilian Sharif, but despite him.



At full past Noon then, what will Noon stand for? At half past Noon, the answer is not clear. This alone should scare the living daylights out of Brothers Sharif as they purview the landscape littered with the remains of their opponents. That smile they sport, yup, that may be a bit premature.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 8^th, 2015.

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