The opium paradox

Opium cultivation in Afghanistan soared by 19 per cent in 2024, even despite a formal ban imposed by the Taliban. Such an unexpected resurgence not only raises question on the effectiveness of the current administration but also threatens to reignite a global health crisis.

At first, it appeared that the April 2022 ban on the opium poppy cultivation by the Taliban would be a success. Satellite images and area reports indicated major reductions in poppy fields, especially in southern provinces like Helmand which is considered as the centre of opium production.

The last UNODC report, however, paints a completely opposite scenario. The 19% rise in cultivation clearly proves Taliban's weakness to control poppy cultivation and continued attractiveness of opium trade. Such a boom is not a statistical phenomenon but speaks of a complex net of economic desperation combined with failures in governance and geopolitical challenges.

In what is a hard economic reality for Afghan farmers, the price of opium has risen to about $730 per kilogram, and no punishment is serving to deter the temptation. Also, there is no good alternative livelihood programme is in place.

As the issue of poppy cultivation is closely linked with the economic survival of farmers and their families, relying on kinetic action alone is a non-starter in the context of controlling the poppy cultivation. This hard fact draws attention towards the underlying intractable challenge that reliance on repressive measures as a stopgap arrangement, instead of adopting long-term alternatives, is so patently an elementary failure due to complex socio-economics.

On the other hand, there is no denying that this ominous spike in poppy cultivation across Afghanistan and its subsequent spread to the entire region carries ruinous implications. Unimpeded drug trade is fueling narco-criminal crisis globally by increasing the number of addicts and organised criminals in neighbouring states. It has not only endangered global efforts to eradicate narco-trade and related challenges but has also put public health in great peril.

So, in the simplistic terms, dilemma in Afghanistan is two-fold: avoiding a humanitarian catastrophe at both regional and global levels; and providing socio-economic alternatives for Afghan farmers. This crisis is calling upon the world to do utmost efforts on both these counts.

Providing socio-economics alternatives to poppy cultivators has become a critical imperative. This can be realised through infrastructural investments, agricultural diversification, and improved access to licit markets. Also, the situation warrants opening a dialogue between the Taliban regime and the international society on designing more humane and effective responses to this problem of narcotics proliferation against drivers of cultivation practices that have been sustained for too long.

Regional cooperation also plays a highly important role. The bordering countries need to excel in their management along borders and cooperate in intelligence sharing when attacking trafficking outfits. Besides, devising reduction strategies in the countries having a demand is also necessary for containing the global spread of opioids.

It is more than a crack in the efforts to dominate drugs, since the revival of Afghan poppy cultivation has exposed the key nexus between poverty and governance and the international drug markets. Of course, our experience in this challenge also underscores that the solutions have to be sustainable and should go beyond just bans and eradication, thereby helping put in place through relevant economic and social reforms incentives that can make Afghan poppy cultivation less attractive to desperate farmers.

This growing crisis cannot be turned a blind eye to. The damaging effects go beyond the physical borders of Afghanistan - to global health, security and stability. This is time to renew cooperative efforts to combat a persistent problem - one that recognises the humanity involved and seeks long-term, sustainable solutions.