The true rate of unemployment

Any layman can understand that with a growth rate of 4.24 per cent, job creation is a far-fetched dream

There are always different versions and point of views to a story. The glass is either half-full or half-empty, they say. But when it comes to official data that reflects the country’s economic performance, there are at least two versions put forward — one would present a rosy picture while the other would send out a reminder that we are still a Third-World nation not getting any better. This was the case when the government quoted GDP growth rate last year. The same was the case when it targeted tax collection for the year that it kept revising downwards. Exports fell short of the target — actually went below last-year’s number — and unemployment rose. But, according to the finance ministry, the rate of unemployment has gone down. From 6.2 per cent in 2012-13, it was registered at six per cent in 2013-14. But there was no number for 2014-15. On the other hand, the planning ministry quoted a figure of 8.2 per cent for the rate of unemployment, reminding the public that different arms of the government were not on the same wavelength. How that makes us feel is beyond any explanation in simple, clean words.

Most economists believe that for Pakistan to see the rate of unemployment go down, it has to register a growth rate of around seven per cent. It clocked in at 4.24 per cent for the outgoing fiscal year and gave a lower reading the previous year. Any layman can understand that with this low a number for GDP growth, job creation is a far-fetched dream. The quality of jobs is a separate matter altogether and not even up for debate at this time. With universities churning out fresh graduates every year — some of lesser credentials and some fakes ones — stating that the rate of unemployment has gone down without quoting a figure is reckless if not criminal. There is no doubt that there has been some improvement in macroeconomic indicators, but claiming that there has been an improvement in every aspect is criminal. This is not how the vote bank should be won.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 13^th,  2015.

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