The war in Ukraine
Though US has backed off from sending arms to Ukraine;but it seems that a war between Russia & West is now conceivable
If Russia makes Soviet revisionist moves in the Baltics, possibly testing the waters with “a little hybrid warfare” in the words of Anders Fogh Rasmussen, then a wider war might become inevitable. PHOTO: REUTERS
A conflict is raging in Ukraine that gets little coverage in this region but that may be about to change. The last week has seen a round of international diplomacy aimed at heading off a war in both Ukraine and potentially between Nato and Russia. Leading the diplomatic charge has been Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany. She has persuaded US President Barack Obama to not listen to the hawks in his government and arm the Ukrainians, as the Russians may take this as a declaration of war, no less. President Obama has delivered a line that will perhaps haunt him in the future: “We … cannot stand idle and simply let the borders of Europe be redrawn at the barrel of a gun.” There is to be a peace conference in Minsk on February 11 when all sides are tabling positions unacceptable to all the others — but a diplomatic path has to be found.
What started as ‘differences’ became a conflict and is now a full-blown war. In Ukraine, Russia has supported separatists in the country’s east, and may have regular troops in action against the Ukrainian Army, which is considerably outgunned. Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking to legitimise the autonomy of the separatists and the putative ceasefire may be the birth of a redrawn border. The US has backed off from sending arms to the Ukraine government; but there is a real sense that as Carl Bildt, a former Swedish foreign minister has said, a war between Russia and the West is now quite conceivable. French Preisdent Francois Hollande has echoed that saying there was a chance that the conflict could become ‘total war’. If Russia makes Soviet revisionist moves in the Baltics, possibly testing the waters with “a little hybrid warfare” in the words of Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a former recent head of Nato, then a wider war might become inevitable. The European Union (EU) currently has a sanctions regime in place in respect of Russia, which is said to be of questionable value and is feeding internal tensions within the EU anyway. The Europeans are afraid, and they have every reason to be.
Published in The Express Tribune, February 11th, 2015.
What started as ‘differences’ became a conflict and is now a full-blown war. In Ukraine, Russia has supported separatists in the country’s east, and may have regular troops in action against the Ukrainian Army, which is considerably outgunned. Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking to legitimise the autonomy of the separatists and the putative ceasefire may be the birth of a redrawn border. The US has backed off from sending arms to the Ukraine government; but there is a real sense that as Carl Bildt, a former Swedish foreign minister has said, a war between Russia and the West is now quite conceivable. French Preisdent Francois Hollande has echoed that saying there was a chance that the conflict could become ‘total war’. If Russia makes Soviet revisionist moves in the Baltics, possibly testing the waters with “a little hybrid warfare” in the words of Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a former recent head of Nato, then a wider war might become inevitable. The European Union (EU) currently has a sanctions regime in place in respect of Russia, which is said to be of questionable value and is feeding internal tensions within the EU anyway. The Europeans are afraid, and they have every reason to be.
Published in The Express Tribune, February 11th, 2015.