Obama in India

If the quality of relations between nation-states could be determined through a reading of the body language of their leaders when they meet, then relations between India and the US are at an all-time high in terms of cordiality. US President Barack Obama greeted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi with warmth that was unusual in the restrained world of international relations, and the two men really did seem to share a positive chemistry. Considering that the Obama Administration had treated Mr Modi like a pariah up until a year ago, this is a remarkable turnaround, and reflective of the reality that there is no such thing as a ‘forever position’ in geopolitics. These two powerful men are not, in reality, friends in any conventional sense; it is that the tide of history has washed India and the US closer together in pursuit of mutual — and very large — interests.

The American pivot towards the Pacific is coincident with both China and India advancing economically and militarily, and America as it pivots, does not want to lose sight or contact with a country that is becoming a key regional power and a counter-weight to the influence exerted by China. The rehabilitation of Mr Modi is driven by a cynical pragmatism, and had he not looked to be on course to win the 2014 Indian general elections, he would still be out in the cold — but win he did, and Indo-American relations had to be rebooted. President Obama’s visit to India is truncated by the necessity of visiting Saudi Arabia to condole the death of King Abdullah, but truncated or not, it was highly symbolic. President Obama not visiting Pakistan whilst in the neighbourhood is no less symbolic. There has been a warming of relations between Pakistan and the US in the last six months, but nothing like the extent to which relations between India and the US have come out of the freezer. America will be watching our reaction to the Obama visit, and it is impossible to believe that Pakistan did not feature on the agenda somewhere in it, but cynical pragmatism is yet to be deployed in our direction.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 27^th,  2015.

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