Elections ahead: Road to Senate subject to assembly’s number game

In both treasury and opposition benches, smaller parties can switch sides.

PESHAWAR:

Political parties with fewer lawmakers in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Assembly are likely to become a liability for their allies, in opposition and treasury benches alike, in the upcoming Senate elections.

The break down

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is the largest party in the provincial assembly with 56 lawmakers in the 124-member house. Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) follows with 17 members, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) with 16, Qaumi Watan Party (QWP) with 10 while PTI’s coalition partner Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) has eight seats.

The other coalition partner, Awami Jamhoori Ittehad Pakistan (AJIP), occupies five seats while opposition parties Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and Awami National Party (ANP) have five seats each. The two remaining seats are held by independent MPAs supporting the government.

Keeping a balance

It seems smaller parties are likely to play a crucial role in the Senate polls as all of them have ambitions to send their representatives to the Upper House of Parliament.

With a total of 71 provincial seats, PTI and its allies can win around seven seats in the Senate, including four general and one technocrat, women and minority seat each. Meanwhile, the opposition also has enough strength to win three general seats, a seat for women and a seat for technocrats.

In case of a disagreement in one or both camps (treasury and opposition), smaller parties can switch sides, bolstering the other group’s chances to win more Senate seats.

If opposition parties reach an agreement, the larger members PML-N, JUI-F and QWP can each win a general seat; they can also help their smaller allies ANP and PPP win a technocrat and women’s seat. In the case that larger parties decline help, ANP and PPP can extend their hand to the coalition, increasing its chances of winning another general seat.

The treasury benches can also suffer a similar dilemma if they deny a Senate seat to AJIP; the coalition partner might decide to side with the opposition, giving it an upper hand. JI is also desirous of sending its chief Sirajul Haq to the Upper House from the provincial legislature and can rebel if its plans are interrupted.

‘Sans corruption’

However, there seems to be a general agreement to avoid backdoor dealings in the polls. Lawmakers from both sides of the aisle have hinted that there is nothing wrong with both sides working out a mutual adjustment in order to discourage purchasing of votes.

“The opposition does not want any horse-trading to take place,” said PML-N parliamentary leader Sardar Aurangzeb Nalotha. He added his party would win two general seats from the provincial assembly, while joint candidates will contest for the reserved seats for women and technocrats.

Reports about possible contact between opposition parties and the government to reach an adjustment are also doing the rounds. However, PTI’s Shaukat Yousafzai denied these reports. “PTI chief Imran Khan will decide on the matter,” said Yousafzai, adding his party has agreed not to allow corruption in the polls.

On the other hand, QWP senior leader Anisa Zeb Tahirkheli acknowledged some informal communication has taken place between the government and opposition through intermediaries. However, she said nothing has been formalised yet.

Tahirkheli was hopeful that the opposition would remain united over the Upper House polls as it has managed to do in the provincial assembly so far. Confirming that QWP was hoping to win a Senate seat, Tahirkehli said, “We want elections to take place in a transparent manner and do not want a repetition of the unsavoury episodes of the past.”

Published in The Express Tribune, January 27^th, 2015.