The long haul

There was a sense of all the participants having been there, in the same position, at the press conference that concluded the visit of US Secretary of State John Kerry — many times before. Mr Kerry certainly has, and so it was as well for his predecessor Mrs Clinton along with Messrs Rice, Powell and Albright. The sentiments expressed by Mr Kerry and by Sartaj Aziz, who is adviser to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on national security and foreign affairs, were familiar restatements of long-held positions. In short, little or nothing has changed and India and Pakistan continue to gnaw at each other much as they have for decades. The India-Pakistan relationship has never recovered from the shock of the attacks on Mumbai, and the trust deficit has never in reality been narrowed despite the best efforts of Mr Kerry and his predecessors, as well it must be said the present government in Pakistan, that really does appear to be prepared to go if not the extra mile, then make a step in the right direction.



Mr Aziz, at the press conference, asked that the US as an “influential member of the international community” use its good offices to work with Pakistan. The US has consistently refused to be drawn into such a role, at least on the surface though there will have doubtless been closed-door discussions on the subject, and Mr Kerry is most unlikely to respond in the affirmative. Any American support in resolving our differences is going to be dependent on both countries doing their own legwork first, only then will America “do whatever it can to try to help in that effort”. Message received, Mr Kerry.

Acknowledging that this was “the hardest time to work”, Mr Kerry credited Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif for reaching out to our neighbours in the search for peace and understanding; doubtless a reference to the much-improved relations between the governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan since the departure of the unlamented Hamid Karzai. This is a period of rapid regional change. The US is pivoting Pacific-wards and will have left the Afghan debacle behind it in a couple of years’ time, but wants India to continue its support for Afghanistan — a support that runs counter to the interests of Pakistan across a number of fronts. Mr Kerry and Mr Aziz both agreed that a peaceful and stable Afghanistan was in the best interests of the region as a whole, and that there was a linkage between the stability or otherwise of both Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Whilst there was nothing that was new revealed by the press conference, the visit of Mr Kerry, and the general warmth of the mood-music that has accompanied it does underscore the easing of tensions between Pakistan and the US. There is going to be an increase in intelligence and security cooperation, and the strategic dialogue looks set to continue. A relaxing of tensions aside, Mr Kerry left Pakistan in no doubt as to American perceptions saying: “The tragedy of December 16 is really a reminder of the serious risk of allowing extremists to find space, and be able to command that space and operate within it.” The implication is obvious, and the time for ‘good’ and ‘bad’ Taliban is now past.

It is for Pakistan to fight terrorism and extremism in all its guises and whatever flag it marches under, a fight that is going to mean some radical rethinking of long-held paradigms in our security establishment. Viewed overall, the visit of Mr Kerry is positive in its albeit small outcomes. The regional churn is going to continue for years to come, and much turns on the capacity for change in India and Pakistan. Presently, Pakistan has the initiative in the peace-race and India is still adjusting to the modalities of a nationalist government that is still ‘settling in’. Mr Kerry will be back because Uncle Sam has unfinished business. overnight.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 14^th,  2015.

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