The BJP’s Mission Kashmir
While Hindutva mantra could work in states like Jharkand & Maharashtra, it could not find much bearing in Kashmir
The writer is a public policy analyst and a former interior secretary
The recent state elections in Indian-held Kashmir brought in a sizeable turnout and remained largely peaceful. These elections, in view of the fractured mandate that resulted from them, have raised some key questions about the political future of the strife-torn state. The results have brought to limelight the political differences between the regional players and the BJP, which despite its development mantra, rode on the popular wave of Hindutva to garner maximum votes in the Hindu-dominated belt of the Jammu region. The BJP finished as the second-largest party, bagging 25 seats in a house of 87, while the state-based Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) led with 28 seats. With no clear winner, governor rule was imposed in the occupied state, while citing the reason that no party could muster the requisite numbers in the state assembly to form a government. The new government was required to be constituted before January 19 and there was still time for the parties involved to come to some workable arrangement. The imposition of governor rule by the centre signifies that the central government of the BJP will now have far greater leverage to dictate terms and extract a favourable outcome despite the party lacking a clear majority in the state.
The PDP fought the elections with a clear stand on preserving Kashmir’s special status under Article 370 of the Indian Constitution and withdrawal of an act, which gives exceptional powers to the Indian Army to carry out operations in the state. Both these demands are anathema to the BJP. It undertook one of the most strenuous election campaigns in the occupied state with a well-thought-out strategy and is now pointing out that it bagged the highest number of votes of 23 per cent, closely followed by the PDP with 22.7 per cent of the votes. The BJP’s election campaign was a closely supervised one headed by its President Amit Shah, known for his astuteness and organisational abilities. He had the assistance of the Sangh Parivar and the RSS, especially in the Hindu-dominated constituencies. He deployed all organisational resources to mobilise party workers and the electorate, especially in the Jammu region, which represents nearly 65 per cent of the Hindu population. His efforts bore results as the region registered an over 70 per cent turnout. Strenuous efforts were made to bring back the Kashmiri pandits in the valley as registered voters, who were forced to leave their homes with the outbreak of insurgency in 1989. A special package was announced offering them government jobs, along with the construction of residential apartments for them in Srinagar. Services of RSS workers were used for mobilisation and relocation of the pandits. As a result, over 100,000 voters were registered in the valley. It was clear that the BJP was treating this election as a make or break one, with the BJP president making his intention of having a Hindu chief minister for a predominantly Muslim state clear, as well as eyeing an absolute majority and the role of a dominant player in state politics for his party.
The strategy, however, suffered from an inherent flaw as it overlooked Kashmir’s complex political dynamics. While development had been the avowed plank on which the BJP contested, it was by and large subsumed by the wave of Hindutva, which an average Muslim voter in the valley could distinctly perceive. While the Hindutva mantra could work in other states like Jharkand and Maharashtra, it could not find much bearing in Kashmir. Despite the tall claims of polling the highest number of votes by the BJP, the composition of this tally offers an interesting analysis. The BJP, while sweeping in the Jammu region, could not secure a single seat in the Buddhist-dominated Ladakh region and also in the valley which is dominated by an over 90 per cent Muslim population. It could muster just two per cent of the total votes cast in the valley. It fielded 31 Muslim candidates throughout the state while only one could make it to the assembly. In its bid to get its Kashmir operation started, the BJP has further communalised the political divide in the state. While hectic efforts were afoot by various stakeholders to form the government, voices came up from the Jammu region for the state’s break-up into two separate states. This idea is not of recent origin, but the BJP’s politics fuelled by ultra-right elements has precipitated it. It had been latent and was in hibernation.
The Kashmir-centric PDP’s stance on Article 370 and on the act that gives special powers to the armed forces is in opposition to that of the BJP. The former wishes to see the process of political dialogue to be carried forward with alienated elements as well as with Pakistan. The BJP also realises that despite political posturing, doing away with the special status will not be a simple task. Despite the division in the votes of state-based regional parties, they are all firmly united on the non-negotiable status of Article 370.
The PDP, despite its avowed stand on the basic issues confronting the Kashmiri mind, may not be averse to a coalition arrangement with the BJP in the future. It may be an interesting experience for both if this ever happens. It may well help the PDP to cast a sobering influence on the BJP’s agenda, and help it understand the sensitivities of local politics.
While the present Indian government misses no opportunity in pointing finger towards Pakistan for anything that goes wrong in Kashmir, its current role has been far from desirable in keeping the Line of Control (LoC) boiling hot for so many months. In the latest bout of LoC violations, many Pakistani civilians and soldiers lost their lives. This is akin to tacitly helping the cause of the Taliban against whom the Pakistan Army is engaged on the western front. The BJP is certainly ignoring the bigger picture here.
Published in The Express Tribune, January 13th, 2015.
The PDP fought the elections with a clear stand on preserving Kashmir’s special status under Article 370 of the Indian Constitution and withdrawal of an act, which gives exceptional powers to the Indian Army to carry out operations in the state. Both these demands are anathema to the BJP. It undertook one of the most strenuous election campaigns in the occupied state with a well-thought-out strategy and is now pointing out that it bagged the highest number of votes of 23 per cent, closely followed by the PDP with 22.7 per cent of the votes. The BJP’s election campaign was a closely supervised one headed by its President Amit Shah, known for his astuteness and organisational abilities. He had the assistance of the Sangh Parivar and the RSS, especially in the Hindu-dominated constituencies. He deployed all organisational resources to mobilise party workers and the electorate, especially in the Jammu region, which represents nearly 65 per cent of the Hindu population. His efforts bore results as the region registered an over 70 per cent turnout. Strenuous efforts were made to bring back the Kashmiri pandits in the valley as registered voters, who were forced to leave their homes with the outbreak of insurgency in 1989. A special package was announced offering them government jobs, along with the construction of residential apartments for them in Srinagar. Services of RSS workers were used for mobilisation and relocation of the pandits. As a result, over 100,000 voters were registered in the valley. It was clear that the BJP was treating this election as a make or break one, with the BJP president making his intention of having a Hindu chief minister for a predominantly Muslim state clear, as well as eyeing an absolute majority and the role of a dominant player in state politics for his party.
The strategy, however, suffered from an inherent flaw as it overlooked Kashmir’s complex political dynamics. While development had been the avowed plank on which the BJP contested, it was by and large subsumed by the wave of Hindutva, which an average Muslim voter in the valley could distinctly perceive. While the Hindutva mantra could work in other states like Jharkand and Maharashtra, it could not find much bearing in Kashmir. Despite the tall claims of polling the highest number of votes by the BJP, the composition of this tally offers an interesting analysis. The BJP, while sweeping in the Jammu region, could not secure a single seat in the Buddhist-dominated Ladakh region and also in the valley which is dominated by an over 90 per cent Muslim population. It could muster just two per cent of the total votes cast in the valley. It fielded 31 Muslim candidates throughout the state while only one could make it to the assembly. In its bid to get its Kashmir operation started, the BJP has further communalised the political divide in the state. While hectic efforts were afoot by various stakeholders to form the government, voices came up from the Jammu region for the state’s break-up into two separate states. This idea is not of recent origin, but the BJP’s politics fuelled by ultra-right elements has precipitated it. It had been latent and was in hibernation.
The Kashmir-centric PDP’s stance on Article 370 and on the act that gives special powers to the armed forces is in opposition to that of the BJP. The former wishes to see the process of political dialogue to be carried forward with alienated elements as well as with Pakistan. The BJP also realises that despite political posturing, doing away with the special status will not be a simple task. Despite the division in the votes of state-based regional parties, they are all firmly united on the non-negotiable status of Article 370.
The PDP, despite its avowed stand on the basic issues confronting the Kashmiri mind, may not be averse to a coalition arrangement with the BJP in the future. It may be an interesting experience for both if this ever happens. It may well help the PDP to cast a sobering influence on the BJP’s agenda, and help it understand the sensitivities of local politics.
While the present Indian government misses no opportunity in pointing finger towards Pakistan for anything that goes wrong in Kashmir, its current role has been far from desirable in keeping the Line of Control (LoC) boiling hot for so many months. In the latest bout of LoC violations, many Pakistani civilians and soldiers lost their lives. This is akin to tacitly helping the cause of the Taliban against whom the Pakistan Army is engaged on the western front. The BJP is certainly ignoring the bigger picture here.
Published in The Express Tribune, January 13th, 2015.