The writer is a graduate student at the University of Notre Dame in the United States
Firstly, it seems quite apparent that the PTI is effectively a five-year flash in the pan that will likely fizzle out by 2018. Voters in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) have too much pride to continue playing second fiddle to their counterparts in Punjab, who are way too obviously the PTI’s first love. And the party will continue to fail to make inroads with voters in Punjab so long as its leadership continues to arrogantly disrespect their choice.
The PTI leadership needs to accept the fact that Punjab actually likes the Sharif brothers and for good reason. Unless the PTI can demonstrate that it can offer them a better deal — by building a track record in K-P — it can kiss the notion of a PTI chief minister of Punjab goodbye. Interestingly, the one province that might still be open to the PTI’s overtures is Sindh, but the PTI has not shown that it cares enough to commit sufficient party resources there.
So if the PTI is not going to make bigger inroads in 2018, does that mean that Nawaz is assured victory? Not exactly. The prime minister can only lock in a re-election win if he shows himself capable of undertaking the structural reforms necessary to solve the power crisis in Punjab. More than 18 months into his third term, Nawaz demonstrably lacks either the political courage or the executive ability to make those reforms happen. Voters in Punjab elected him to fix electricity. If he does not accomplish that by 2018, nothing else will matter to them.
This does not, however, mean that he will lose if Punjab still has rolling blackouts. The PML-N could still win by default as being the ‘least worst’ option. But the ruling party will likely go into the next election as a weakened incumbent. Unless, of course, the three left-leaning parties in Pakistan decide to get their act together.
Following the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, there is still a gaping hole on the left of Pakistan’s political spectrum. Unfortunately, the PPP alone is not large enough to fill that gap by itself, but it would stand a much better chance of doing so if it absorbed the MQM and the ANP into its mix. All three parties have an incentive to agree to this merger, and to some extent, it may even be inevitable. But if they want it to have an impact on 2018, they need to act fast.
The MQM leadership could use the prospect of a merger with the PPP as a bargaining chip to get what the party originally started out for: getting an effective governance structure for Karachi and Hyderabad. The ANP, for its part, is a shadow of a party that should accept that K-P will never elect it again so long as it pledges loyalty to Asfandyar Wali Khan, a man viewed by many as having abandoned the province when it needed him the most. By shifting leadership from the Wali Khan family to the PPP, at least that orphaned left-leaning Pashtun vote bank has a chance of being consolidated into a national party. And of course, as the acquiring party, the PPP will gain access to a new vote bank in K-P and consolidate its hold on Sindh.
Ideologically, while the parties have many differences — particularly when it comes to governing Karachi — they are united in their recognition of the common threat of religious fanaticism. As for practical feasibility, the PPP is led by Asif Ali Zardari, the best political dealmaker in Pakistani political history.
It may sound implausible, but this political merger is more possible that one might think. It may also be the centre-left’s only realistic chance of beating the PML-N in the next election. The only other alternative is Qaim Ali Shah creating an impressive track record in Sindh for the PPP to campaign on in 2018. Which of these two options do you think is more likely?
Published in The Express Tribune, January 9th, 2015.
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COMMENTS (12)
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i can best conclude your comments as” plmn is only l party on the political land scape of Pakistan to be called a political party and that i have experience of west and you not as per indication from your English" (superiority complex). i pray for you plz keep it up, i have not written a single word about pti or Imran khan in my comment, but i can feel overwhelming fear factor, i don’t believe on fudged figures, i have complete research on all elections, every political party and all facts and figures about Pakistan, it is habit of our society when we encounter a setback on any front, we always likely to be personal. may GOD bless you
@Raider If you don't consider PMLN any party that is really your problem and I am sorry that you are so out of touch. Acutally, even in 2002 at the depth of crises, leadership exiled, PMLN managed to not only win 17 key seats but a very large number of vote. This is all under Mush. In 2008, PMLN won majority of Punjab and made government in province. PMLN is the largest political party weather you like it or not or agree or not! As for feeling sorry about PMLN voters, calling them uneducated and whatever, I can tell you that is the reason that PTI lost. I am quite educated, and I am ardent supporter of PMLN and will stay like that till I have a better alternative. Go check history of elections and see how PMLN always performed. As for dynasties in True democracies / Western democracies not existent. You do really need to educate yourself. Judging from your English, it doesn't look like you are or have lived in Western world but I will suggest start educating your self. I can tell you at least dozen dynasties existing in the US political system today. City of Chicago had a Father / Son dynasty for over 70 years, same as Madigan family in Illinois state politics. The problem with your thought process is that you have not given proper thought to alternative ideas and certainly have not performed any research to figure out how real life works. PMLN is the largest party, it is the party that Punjab votes, it is the party that will win 2018 elections as well judging by the way things are getting better or other alternatives and if you continue to think the way you are, you will only be crying again like Imran.
@H Chaudhry: futher i forgot to mention that pml always fetch anti pppp and anti poor governace of pppp and ideological vote of pakistan muslim league(illusion) and against a lathargic autocracy vote, other wise it is amazing that you are mentioning that sharif perfrm better, just take ch pervaz elahi reign and compare it with all the sharif reigns. chaudry would certainly be surpassed
@H Chaudhry: yes roots of these peoples are present in uneducated, patronage , you very right silent majority the same very growing fate by illegal means, my questions is how long people would keep on voting them, i really feel sorry for these peoples that keep on electing them they would not able to solve any single problem of Pakistan because they don’t have guts and gestures for efficacy required, i don’t consider pmln any political party, i could not find roots of plmn in 2002 election and even in 2008 election even pppp party ethnic to Sindh managed to get win all south Punjab and more than 100 seats at provincial level, if pppp would have been managed to supply electricity to peoples these extrapolate roots may rot further. Dynasty is not present in any true democratic country, if it is present in faction not to a level that each pm and cm from same lot and mostly peoples present in dynastic politics are capable in thos countries
@raider I think you are living in eutopia or want to live in eutopia. However, in real world political dynasties exist every where. Not a great thing or good thing but it happens and people need to learn to make them accountable. There is a kennedy, daly, Madigan dynasty to name few just in US. As for writer, he is quite correct in his notion that Punjab overall does like Sharif brothers and the more you Disrespect them, "Oye Nawaz" and forget to open mouth about Altafs of the world, Punjab main stream voter that is silent majority will continue to support PMLN. Case in point, at the height of its unpopularity, PMLN backed candidate Hashmi lost by same percentage margin as in general elections, that is even at height of popularity, PTI was not able to keep 40,000 people voting for Hashmi. Again, the by elections a month ago, two PMLN backed candidates each grabbed over 40K votes. Punjab politics and village politics is complex, calling some ones leader "Oye" doesn't help it. There are about 100 NA seats where PTI at their heigh of popularity couldn't come with in 50K votes to PMLN. These 100 seats will always be won by PMLN. Write like this one and others are now realizing how deeply rooted PMLN is with in Punjab because Sharif brothers perform better than others. Writer is quite right about, giving an alternative governace model to people of Punjab if you want us to vote some one else, just by calling "Oye Nawaz" would not take you any where.
writer you are living in aristotle era
dear, writer you should keep in mind one quote: you can deceive all the peoples once but can not all the people all the time, this quot is quit applicable to sensible nations, but on pakistan s' peoples quote is: you can deceive all the peoples all the time, and you have proven in your writing that writer like you are there to support dynasties
Exactly why would someone want PPP back?
The so-called champion of left-wing politics didn't initiate any large scale operation against the Taliban, despite claiming to be most victimized by them. It took a right-wing party government to do that.
For a common citizen in Pakistan like me, that is better than a thousand left-wing parties.
This is just an interesting thought exercise. Never in a million years could so many cats be herded into the same pen.
won't happen... even if they merge they won't win
Physiological MQM supporter has always supporter of Rawalpindi even from Dacca would they go with #PPP I doubt it. Now for PPP, will it become middle class political Party by design I doubt that too. ANP would go more with Baluch Nationalist than with PPP. only reason we see cooperation between PPP and ANP is childhood friendship between Zardari and A. Wali. Let wait and see 2018 is comming
For Parties to merge with likeminded parties with similar agenda, there must be internal democracy with a method for leadership succession. As things stand most parties are considered family property to be handed down to the next generation. Most educated Indians are tired of the Nehru dynasty while they continue to foist Rahul Gandhi on us. Ony the BJP in India is not a family shop and has some measure of internal democracy and leadership succession. So if PPP, MQM & ANP merge, who will be the leader?