The carbon footprint of war

One important aspect of the ongoing conflict between US-Israel and Iran which is being ignored completely is its environmental impact. A conscious mind can estimate that environmental debris now has long-term consequences, even if the conflict is resolved immediately. The oil facilities being hit and set ablaze release huge quantities of CO2, soot, sulfur dioxide and other hazardous gases into the atmosphere. These pollutants will travel far beyond the conflict zone, carried by regional wind systems, turning regional destruction into a wider environmental hazard and potentially affecting neighboring countries.

Recent escalation in burning oil infrastructure in the Middle East, along with reports of toxic smoke and "blackened rain", demonstrates how warfare can trigger sudden spikes in pollution. According to a report by the Conflict and Environment Observatory (CEOBS), more than 300 environmentally relevant incidents have already been recorded during the current conflict across Iran and the wider region.

This raises a rarely discussed problem in climate debates: the carbon footprint of war.

Military operations, infrastructure destruction, and the fires that follow can release massive volumes of emissions. Unfortunately, these emissions are often not reported and excluded from national climate reporting frameworks under the UNFCCC. The current climate policy accounts for CO2 emissions from industries and vehicles, but the environmental costs of armed conflict remain largely invisible.

The CEOBS assessment suggests that, beyond immediate air pollution, the conflict is also generating broader ecological threats, including marine pollution from damaged ships, oil spills in the Persian Gulf, and contamination from military facilities that discharge fuels, heavy metals and hazardous chemicals into the surrounding environment.

For countries already vulnerable to climate shocks, the implications are serious.

The Germanwatch Climate Change Performance Index consistently places Pakistan among nations that face climate vulnerability while contributing relatively little to the climate problem. Additional emissions driven by geopolitical conflicts elsewhere compound an already difficult climate equation.

There is also a regional dimension to consider. The climate movement does not recognise political borders. CEOBS reported that smoke from fires in Tehran was already drifting eastwards across parts of Central and South Asia, illustrating how conflict-generated pollution can disperse across continents. Pakistan's Air Quality Index is already unhealthy, and large-scale pollution events in neighbouring regions could further exacerbate these vulnerabilities.

The environmental impact of war extends beyond the fires themselves. Modern warfare consumes vast amounts of fuel for airborne strikes by fighter jets, drones and missile launch pads. Rebuilding after conflict also carries a carbon cost, as reconstruction infrastructure depends on cement and steel, two of the most emission-intensive industries.

Taken together, these factors create a climate impact that rarely appears in international dialogue. While countries debate emissions targets and carbon markets, the environmental consequences of conflict remain a blind spot in global climate governance.

For Pakistan, this reality reinforces the broader argument of climate justice. Low-emitting countries are often those most exposed to the cascading impacts of global warming. When geopolitical crises increase emissions and pollution, they intensify climate risks for nations that played little role in creating the problem.

This does not mean climate diplomacy can solve geopolitical conflict. But it does suggest that the global climate framework needs to be reformed. Greater transparency in reporting military emissions, stronger international monitoring of environmental damage during conflict, and recognition of conflict-related pollution in climate adaptation discussions could help address this gap.

Wars have always carried human and economic costs. Increasingly, they also carry climatic ones. When oil fields erupt, and smoke rises into the atmosphere, the environmental consequences spread far beyond the front lines, reminding us that the climate cost of geopolitics is rarely confined to the places where conflicts begin.