Taking precautions against Nilofar

Given the vulnerability of Pakistan to natural disasters, we should be better prepared than we often appear to be


Editorial October 28, 2014

The tropical cyclone Nilofar is bearing down on the coastlines of Sindh and Balochistan, and it is expected that sea conditions will range from being rough to very rough from October 29 to October 31. Initially, it was not expected that Nilofar would touch our shores, but the associated depression over the Arabian Sea has driven it towards us. Cyclones of this severity are not unusual in the post-monsoon period and it will be remembered that super-cyclone Gonu in 2007 wrought havoc, cutting off parts of Balochistan. Heavy rains are expected in Thatta, Badin and Keti Bandar. Fishermen right along the coast have been advised not to go out to sea and those already at sea have been told to quickly return.



The National Disaster Management Authority has alerted all the relevant departments to take preemptive measures, which may include precautionary evacuation. There is going to be no stopping Nilofar and nature will take its course, but the reaction of the many and not always well-coordinated agencies and entities is going to possibly severely test our preparedness for such events. With cyclones in the Arabian Sea a regular event now, and the possibility of them making a landfall in Pakistan relatively high, it would be expected that there was a regularly updated cyclone response master plan. Developed nations conduct regular disaster management table-top exercises, bringing together all the key players and decision-makers to respond to a scripted scenario. Given the vulnerability of Pakistan to natural disasters — earthquakes and floods in the last decade and more floods to come as the world warms — we should be better prepared than we often appear to be.

Natural events with disastrous outcomes are going to increase in both frequency and severity, and the governments of both Sindh and Balochistan need to ensure that their levels of preparedness are such that a response can be ‘switched on’ with relative ease. That said, populations are not always willing or able to move, and human foolhardiness has a part to play as well, if one remembers the drownings off the Karachi beaches earlier in the year. Let us hope that cyclone Nilofar weakens quickly on making landfall.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 29th, 2014.

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