Gold versus the dollar
Gold simply cannot catch up with the rising demand for non-gold reserve assets worldwide
One of the things that Pakistan’s fiscal conservatives share with their American counterparts is their yearning for the gold standard, along with a dislike of the dollar as a popular reserve asset. Both groups of gold bugs believe the dollar is incapable of safeguarding the monetary system from a collapse because it has no ‘intrinsic value’, unlike gold.
Predicting high inflation because of an expanding monetary base particularly within the US, ultra-conservative economists believe that countries around the world should accumulate gold in lieu of the greenbacks to protect themselves against the vagaries of the US Federal Reserve.
They seem to have a point. Emerging economies will receive a death blow if another recession in the future forces the US to default on its dollar-denominated debt obligations. While their argument appears to be valid, evidence from the real world suggests otherwise. If gold was a better reserve asset than the dollar, emerging economies like China and India would have abandoned the dollar in the aftermath of the global recession of 2008. Instead, data show that these economies have accumulated huge quantities of dollar-denominated securities to build up their international reserves following the 2008 crisis.
The total quantity of gold held by central banks worldwide in 2012 was lower by about 2,000 metric tonnes than in 2000. In fact, gold constituted less than two per cent of China’s total international reserves in 2013.
Similarly, the precious metal constitutes roughly three per cent of the international reserves held by all emerging economies combined. In Pakistan’s case, only 11 per cent of the State Bank’s assets consist of gold coins and bullion.
And the reason is simple: gold simply cannot catch up with the rising demand for non-gold reserve assets worldwide. While gold is being mined at 1.5 per cent per annum, the demand for non-gold reserve assets — mainly the US dollar — has been growing at 16 per cent every year. According to economist Eswar Prasad, gold does not have the liquidity of reserve currencies like the dollar. It will be insufficient even if all the gold that has ever been mined — 165,000 metric tonnes, to be precise — is turned into reserve assets overnight.
Meanwhile, the 2008 crisis seems to have strengthened the role of the dollar as the global reserve currency. Proof: instead of taking their capital out of the US, foreign investors actually financed as much as three-fifths of the $5.5 trillion increase in US public debt between 2007 and 2012.
Published in The Express Tribune, October 27th, 2014.
Predicting high inflation because of an expanding monetary base particularly within the US, ultra-conservative economists believe that countries around the world should accumulate gold in lieu of the greenbacks to protect themselves against the vagaries of the US Federal Reserve.
They seem to have a point. Emerging economies will receive a death blow if another recession in the future forces the US to default on its dollar-denominated debt obligations. While their argument appears to be valid, evidence from the real world suggests otherwise. If gold was a better reserve asset than the dollar, emerging economies like China and India would have abandoned the dollar in the aftermath of the global recession of 2008. Instead, data show that these economies have accumulated huge quantities of dollar-denominated securities to build up their international reserves following the 2008 crisis.
The total quantity of gold held by central banks worldwide in 2012 was lower by about 2,000 metric tonnes than in 2000. In fact, gold constituted less than two per cent of China’s total international reserves in 2013.
Similarly, the precious metal constitutes roughly three per cent of the international reserves held by all emerging economies combined. In Pakistan’s case, only 11 per cent of the State Bank’s assets consist of gold coins and bullion.
And the reason is simple: gold simply cannot catch up with the rising demand for non-gold reserve assets worldwide. While gold is being mined at 1.5 per cent per annum, the demand for non-gold reserve assets — mainly the US dollar — has been growing at 16 per cent every year. According to economist Eswar Prasad, gold does not have the liquidity of reserve currencies like the dollar. It will be insufficient even if all the gold that has ever been mined — 165,000 metric tonnes, to be precise — is turned into reserve assets overnight.
Meanwhile, the 2008 crisis seems to have strengthened the role of the dollar as the global reserve currency. Proof: instead of taking their capital out of the US, foreign investors actually financed as much as three-fifths of the $5.5 trillion increase in US public debt between 2007 and 2012.
Published in The Express Tribune, October 27th, 2014.