The sinking ship

Everyone says PPP govt is in doldrums. Almost mockingly, Mr Asif Ali Zardari and his government are oblivious.

Everyone in Islamabad says that the PPP government, which came on a huge sympathy crest weeks after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto is in doldrums. Whether it goes down before the Supreme Court or collapses under its own weight, incompetence and corruption is not known and nobody believes this government has much life left in it.

However, Mr Asif Ali Zardari does not think so, but he is probably the only one in Islamabad who doesn’t. Almost mockingly, he and his government ignore court orders, oblivious to his falling esteem among the people. His own party is under the serious pressure of his unpopularity and his coalition partners in the government are making overtures to the opposition to make a move of some sort in the parliament.

There are rumours of a no-confidence move in the parliament as the notoriety of the ruling group gains momentum. That could be a beginning of the end. Get the PM first and then knock a vulnerable Zardari down with impeachment. If the Supreme Court rules against the government in the next few weeks, over a number of critical cases pending before it, a no-confidence move against the PM can be expected.

A couple of weeks ago, the COAS had met the prime minister and the president together, something the president’s spokesman tried hard to project as army support for the government. But, in fact, the COAS had conveyed some home truths to the two of them: government corruption and incompetence, growing inflation and generally dismal economic conditions. He had in particular mentioned some corrupt federal ministers and suggested their removal.

The COAS’s warning notwithstanding, most people believe that the army’s plate is full with operations going on in Waziristan, flood relief work, the IDPs and defending the eastern border; not to mention dealing with terrorism and other subversive issues. It is thus reasonable to assume that they are unlikely to make a direct intervention to bring the government down. But they are bound to be watching the situation.

Added to this are the startling revelations made by Bob Woodward, the famous American investigative journalist. Mr Asif Zardari, Woodward says, told the US national security adviser and the director of the CIA in a New York hotel in November last year, to go for al Qaeda’s high value targets. Collateral damage did not worry him. Woodward dwells at length on the US disillusionment with Zardari and its concern for Pakistan in the present volatile situation in the region, a concern that the outgoing US ambassador shares. According to a senior Pakistani journalist who knows Washington well, the Americans are somewhat confused by the sheer incompetence and corruption of the Zardari/Gilani government as they cannot figure out what to do. Ideally, they would like to see them reform, but failing that, they would do business with the army. Thus, the US umbrella on Zardari also seems to have been lifted.

The confrontation between the present government and the judiciary is the most critical factor failing Pakistan. It is not possible to imagine a modern state where the orders of a (universally recognised) independent Supreme Court are ignored/disobeyed by the executive. Such an attitude might push the country over the precipice. But both the army and the Americans, it appears, have agreed to stop that, albeit for different reasons and to facilitate another change in Pakistan.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 8^th, 2010.