Deviating from the agreement: Bureau of Statistics violates IMF’s guidelines

The body has moved away from the newly adopted policy of releasing quarterly economic growth rate.

ISLAMABAD:

Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) has abandoned the policy of releasing national accounts on a quarterly basis, a measure that would further deepen the credibility crisis in the bureau.

The move is widely termed a violation of International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) guidelines on good statistical practices and a policy decision made by the PBS Governing Council.

The PBS – the national data collection agency – has moved away from the newly adopted policy of releasing quarterly economic growth rate, said sources in Ministry of Finance and Statistics.  It would not announce the third quarter (January-March) Gross Domestic Product growth rate, they added.

The announcement of quarterly GDP growth number was due on June 30, as per a decision of PBS’s Governing Council, which is headed by Finance Minister Ishaq Dar.

Subsequently, the PBS has decided to release final number of GDP growth for the fiscal year 2013-14 in October, said Arif Mehmood Cheema, Member National Accounts of the PBS in a concise response. However, he did not give any reason for abandoning the policy.

In December last year, the PBS Governing Council had decided that the quarterly GDP figures would be released within three months of the quarter. Consequently, the Governing Council took a policy decision that unlike the past practice of preparing Annual Accounts, the PBS would prepare Quarterly National Accounts.

The chief statistician, Asif Bajwa who heads the affairs at PBS, was not available for comments.

In addition, Pakistan has also adopted Special Data Dissemination Standards of the IMF.

According to sources familiar with the development, the decision to announce an annual GDP figure in October was also in deviation from the IMF’s guidelines that Pakistan had agreed to implement.

In 2012, the IMF had asked Pakistan to bring its Special Data Dissemination Standards at par with international requirements by ensuring quarterly reporting of economic growth statistics.

The guidelines were aimed at addressing the issue of transparency, timeliness, accuracy and reliability of official data that becomes base for key economic policy decisions.

About two years ago, the IMF mission led by Wipada Soonthornsima of the Fiscal Department had said that Pakistan was not fully complying with the Special Data Dissemination Standards, known as SDDS.

The countries subscribing to the SDDS undertake to follow good statistical practices in data coverage and reporting, access by the public to the dissemination of advance release calendars, and simultaneous release of the data.

The delay in releasing the data also raises questions over the official claims of giving administrative autonomy to the PBS. While announcing the results of the first quarter in December last year, the finance minister had stated that the decision to release the quarterly GDP growth figures within three months would ensure independence of the PBS.

In Economic Survey of Pakistan 2013-14, the federal government had given an annualized economic growth rate of 4.1%, which was lower than its target of 4.4%.

However, according to the Institute of Policy Reforms (IPR), the government’s claim that it achieved a growth rate of 4.1% – the highest in the last six years – during its first year in power was not true. Instead, the institute’s findings suggested the actual growth rate for 2013-14 stood at 3.5%, the lowest in the last four years.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 3^rd, 2014.