Termez Dialogue, Pakistan and linking South & Central Asia

Doha Forum held a session on Termez Dialogue on December 7 with the motto "Rebuilding Afghanistan through Regional Connectivity: The Termez Dialogue." Launched in May 2025 in Termez, this dialogue is now a permanent feature of the Uzbek President's initiative to strengthen connectivity between Central Asia and South Asia.

This dialogue took place against the backdrop of Pak-Afghan border closures, as the Afghan Taliban continue to host and fund TTP terrorists who are out to bleed Pakistan.

Central Asia is already connected with the Arabian Sea in South Asia through the Turkmenistan-Iran and Tajikistan-China-Pakistan routes. However, some Central Asian countries prefer to reach South Asia through Afghanistan as a trade bridge and to facilitate Afghan trade — something that now appears impossible through Pakistan. These countries wish to help Afghanistan as an "opportunity" rather than a "regional threat" and want to enhance Afghanistan's trade.

The destination of Termez Dialogue was Doha, a city that will be remembered for Doha Accord between the US and Afghan Taliban, which enabled the latter to return to power in Afghanistan. Since Pakistan has banned trade with Afghanistan, it is being portrayed as an impediment to connecting Central Asia with South Asia, although Central Asia can also reach South Asia through Iran and China. Pakistan, however, is not ready to compromise its sovereignty and security by allowing trade with Afghanistan which is continuously sending terrorists to attack it.

Pakistan is losing trust in Afghanistan, so security and stability are not possible in the immediate future because the Afghan Taliban are not ready to stop terrorists from attacking Pakistan; they are rather using terrorism as diplomatic leverage against Pakistan.

Afghanistan's geographic location naturally makes it a bridge between Central and South Asia, and promoting pragmatic cooperation, strengthening economic ties and integrating Afghanistan into interregional initiatives are seen as essential for long-term stability and development. However, the real question is: are the Afghan Taliban ready to behave as responsible, modern state rulers, and are they willing to change their economic model, which is based on terrorism, drugs and weapons smuggling?

Participants of Termez Dialogue discussed Afghanistan's role in enhancing trans-regional connectivity, as well as practical steps to support sustainable socio-economic development in the broader regional context — without raising the issue that Afghanistan must act against terrorism emanating from its soil.

The dialogue was addressed by Ismatulla Irgashev, Special Representative of Uzbekistan's President for Afghanistan; Eldor Aripov, Director of ISRS; Abdul Hai Kani, Director Center for Strategic Studies under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Afghanistan; Faisal Abdullah Al-Henzab, Special Representative of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar; and Waleed Ziad, Professor of History at Georgetown University in Qatar. Interestingly, Pakistan as well as China and Iran were absent from the event, despite being major players in the context of connecting Central Asia with South Asia.

Participants of Termez Dialogue know well that Afghanistan is a launching pad for global terrorism. Thus, they should also have pushed Afghanistan to revisit its policy of supporting terrorists, because with terrorism thriving in Afghanistan, peace and prosperity cannot come to the region.

Pakistan had been proactive in taking initiatives such as CASA-1000 and TAPI to connect Central Asian energy resources with South Asia and to help Afghanistan economically. Nevertheless, these efforts did not materialise due to constant wars in the country. CASA-1000, conceived in mid-2010s, was initiated in May 2016, while TAPI was initiated in 1997. Pakistan's understanding is clear: nothing good can arrive from Afghanistan if the Afghan Taliban are in control there. Islamabad will carefully watch initiatives by other countries to connect Central Asia with Afghanistan and observe the consequences. Like the Central Asian states, Pakistan wants to see a prosperous Afghanistan but believes that the Afghan Taliban are only interested in collecting hard cash, regardless of where it comes from.