Decisive phase

While no one wants to see a long, protracted war, its necessary to keep heat on till we’re sure the area is clear.

Batten down the hatches. With Pakistan Army troops launching a full-scale ground offensive, the most decisive phase of the North Waziristan operation has begun. As one military official put it, “there is no turning back.” Up until now, Operation Zarb-e-Azb had been employing selective ground operations and mainly concentrating on aerial assaults after the restive agency had been surrounded from all sides (the Afghan side is meant to be manned by Afghan forces to cut off fleeing militants). These 15 days were necessary to allow a period in which civilians could evacuate the area and, at the same time, also give some militants the time to lay down their arms at the various surrender points set up along the security cordon.



The army believes that the evacuation phase is complete; now the cavalry rolls in, beginning the securing and holding phase — the most difficult and trickiest of any operation, which will also almost certainly be the bloodiest period for the country’s forces in one of the most inhospitable and treacherous terrains in Pakistan. Clearing out an area has always been the easier part of military assaults. Unlike in Rah-e-Raast in Swat, where the Pakistan Army was able to run through militants and dismantle their hideouts fairly quickly, holding territory and keeping it secure in North Waziristan will be the greatest challenge — one that will determine the success of this operation. Recall that we had a resurgence of militancy in the Malakand area almost right after the army took its foot off the gas. A better post-combat strategy is needed given that keeping North Waziristan clear is as important as actually clearing it.

This period will test the army’s and the nation’s resolve to the fullest. While there is no way to corroborate these figures, the Inter-Services Public Relation (ISPR) has put the death toll of Pakistan Army troops at 17, against some 376 militants killed and 61 terrorist hideouts destroyed, since the operation was launched. If we are to believe that not a single civilian casualty has taken place (which, let us admit, is highly doubtful), those are pretty good numbers from a war’s point of view. Those numbers could change now. And if and when they do (if they haven’t already), it is necessary for the ISPR, which is now the sole reporting source in the area, given that most locals have filtered out, to give us the actual figures and not unnecessarily paint a rosy picture that is difficult to believe even for the most ardent optimist. Any attempt to mask the actual numbers can be counterproductive in terms of credibility of the operation, which is key given that it is a matter of time before militants and their supporters hit back with their own version of reality.

War is hell and truth can be bitter, and this country has — and if it hasn’t it should have — realised that by now. The reality is that, with troops on the ground and within range in hotspot areas, militants will resort to potshots and unconventional guerilla tactics in terrains they know better and could even attempt to use the remaining civilians as human shields. Exercising caution in a theatre of war is advice that is easier given than practised, but it goes without saying that the army still has a gargantuan task ahead of it. The dangers of high troop casualties — now that our troops are on the ground — are unfortunately, a necessary risk given that aerial bombardment can provide only so much — as has been proved in the past, whether it has been bombardment by Pakistan’s military or the use of drones by the US.

Another important aspect to keep in mind is the time frame. Recently, a government source was quoted in the media as saying that the operation’s combat phase would end by the middle of this month. While no one wants to see a long and protracted war effort, it is necessary to keep the heat on until we’re sure the entire area is clear. A hasty end could compromise the entire effort.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 2^nd, 2014.

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