The Iraq cauldron
We have to guard against the impact that developments elsewhere will have on us.
The writer was foreign secretary from 1994-97 and also served as Pakistan’s ambassador to Iran (1992-94) and the US (1990-91)
As we in Pakistan focus on Zarb-e-Azb and laud the unity with which our political and military leadership has established the objective of rooting out terrorism and on such disturbing events as the clash between the Punjab police and the Pakistan Awami Tehreek in Lahore, we are not paying sufficient attention to developments elsewhere in the Islamic world. These are, to say the least, alarming and bound to create adverse conditions for Pakistan.
The most important clearly is the situation in Iraq where the ISIS has taken over much of the Sunni majority provinces bordering Syria, largely because the population of the area feared Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki’s persecution more than they feared ISIS domination of the area. It is probable that the ISIS will not be able to take Baghdad as Iraqi Shia militias answer the call of Grand Ayatollah Sistani to defend Baghdad and to stop the ISIS advance.
What seems certain, however, is firstly, a new round of sectarian killing — perhaps, worse than anything Iraq has experienced in its chequered history of sectarian relations — will tear Iraq apart. Secondly, strife-torn Iraq will not be able to maintain its current level of oil production. Thirdly, regional players — Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others — will be drawn into the battle and each will seek material and moral support from the rest of the region. Each of these has consequences for Pakistan.
Pakistan’s already fragile economy, stuttering to recover and having to sustain the financial requirements of Operation Zarb-e-Azb, will face a fresh financial crisis as Brent oil prices, having gone to $113 per barrel, climb further. The obvious response must be to impose fresh taxes on those who can afford to pay but if this does not happen and we have to go out with a begging bowl, then we may find it difficult to maintain our traditional political stance of neutrality in intra-Muslim disputes. It will be a situation requiring extremely astute and delicate handling.
On the internal political front, we will have to guard against the efforts of the regional players to make us, as they did with the willing cooperation of our religious leaders during the Iran-Iraq War, the secondary battlefield for the inter-sect battle in Iraq. If we are to genuinely tackle, as part of the Zarb-e-Azb operation, terrorism of every colour and hue and if adequate preparations have been made perhaps, the worst consequences of this can be avoided.
Today, stories about the Muslim world that dominate the headlines are horrible. The ISIS claims the massacre of 1,700 members of Iraqi forces captured during their advance towards Baghdad. The Al Shabab from Somalia is being held responsible for the slaughter of some 48 Kenyans in a Kenyan coastal city with a subsequent attack resulting in another 22 deaths and some women being abducted. The Boko Haram in Nigeria and its abduction of 270 school girls, who, the Boko Haram leader says, will be sold in slavery, continues to be in the news.
All this feeds into the growing alarm in the West that Muslim citizens of countries like the UK, US, France, Denmark and others are participating in the Syrian conflict, serving largely in the ranks of such extremist organisations as the ISIS or the Jabhat al-Nusra. What will they do on their return? In these countries, all Muslim citizens will find themselves under additional scrutiny and despite the safeguards the legal system may provide them, they may find their employment opportunities and their ability to maintain the flow of remittances to their country of origin being limited. This, too, will have an impact on Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves, which are inordinately dependent on remittances.
So far, we have had little public reaction to the systematic attacks by Buddhists on the Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar. Now there is news that a similar attack has been launched on Muslims in Sri Lanka in which at least three were killed and 78 injured while the police stood by watching. The Muslims in Sri Lanka’s affected area have said that their lives have been changed forever and a Muslim member of the Sri Lankan cabinet has denounced his own government’s inaction.
Difficult times lie ahead. We have to contend not only with our own problems but we have to guard against the impact that developments elsewhere will have on us.
Published in The Express Tribune, June 19th, 2014.
The most important clearly is the situation in Iraq where the ISIS has taken over much of the Sunni majority provinces bordering Syria, largely because the population of the area feared Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki’s persecution more than they feared ISIS domination of the area. It is probable that the ISIS will not be able to take Baghdad as Iraqi Shia militias answer the call of Grand Ayatollah Sistani to defend Baghdad and to stop the ISIS advance.
What seems certain, however, is firstly, a new round of sectarian killing — perhaps, worse than anything Iraq has experienced in its chequered history of sectarian relations — will tear Iraq apart. Secondly, strife-torn Iraq will not be able to maintain its current level of oil production. Thirdly, regional players — Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others — will be drawn into the battle and each will seek material and moral support from the rest of the region. Each of these has consequences for Pakistan.
Pakistan’s already fragile economy, stuttering to recover and having to sustain the financial requirements of Operation Zarb-e-Azb, will face a fresh financial crisis as Brent oil prices, having gone to $113 per barrel, climb further. The obvious response must be to impose fresh taxes on those who can afford to pay but if this does not happen and we have to go out with a begging bowl, then we may find it difficult to maintain our traditional political stance of neutrality in intra-Muslim disputes. It will be a situation requiring extremely astute and delicate handling.
On the internal political front, we will have to guard against the efforts of the regional players to make us, as they did with the willing cooperation of our religious leaders during the Iran-Iraq War, the secondary battlefield for the inter-sect battle in Iraq. If we are to genuinely tackle, as part of the Zarb-e-Azb operation, terrorism of every colour and hue and if adequate preparations have been made perhaps, the worst consequences of this can be avoided.
Today, stories about the Muslim world that dominate the headlines are horrible. The ISIS claims the massacre of 1,700 members of Iraqi forces captured during their advance towards Baghdad. The Al Shabab from Somalia is being held responsible for the slaughter of some 48 Kenyans in a Kenyan coastal city with a subsequent attack resulting in another 22 deaths and some women being abducted. The Boko Haram in Nigeria and its abduction of 270 school girls, who, the Boko Haram leader says, will be sold in slavery, continues to be in the news.
All this feeds into the growing alarm in the West that Muslim citizens of countries like the UK, US, France, Denmark and others are participating in the Syrian conflict, serving largely in the ranks of such extremist organisations as the ISIS or the Jabhat al-Nusra. What will they do on their return? In these countries, all Muslim citizens will find themselves under additional scrutiny and despite the safeguards the legal system may provide them, they may find their employment opportunities and their ability to maintain the flow of remittances to their country of origin being limited. This, too, will have an impact on Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves, which are inordinately dependent on remittances.
So far, we have had little public reaction to the systematic attacks by Buddhists on the Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar. Now there is news that a similar attack has been launched on Muslims in Sri Lanka in which at least three were killed and 78 injured while the police stood by watching. The Muslims in Sri Lanka’s affected area have said that their lives have been changed forever and a Muslim member of the Sri Lankan cabinet has denounced his own government’s inaction.
Difficult times lie ahead. We have to contend not only with our own problems but we have to guard against the impact that developments elsewhere will have on us.
Published in The Express Tribune, June 19th, 2014.