Building closer ties with India
The fate of the peace process with India will depend on how the Sharif government handles the issue at home.
The writer is a Master’s student at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. He tweets @uzairyounus
With Nawaz Sharif attending Narendra Modi’s inauguration and subsequently meeting the Indian prime minister, hopes of normalisation of ties between the two nuclear-armed rivals are running high. The two men have met twice, and while the exchanges were short and lasted a few minutes, social media posts by Mr Modi allude that the two men connected on a personal level. While Mr Modi’s BJP used anti-Pakistan rhetoric during the election campaign, it seems like the newly-elected government in Delhi is seeking to build a rapport with Pakistan in the coming few months. For Mr Sharif, the trick will be to maintain a delicate balance as he seeks normalisation of ties with India while not coming across as negotiating from a position of weakness.
Normalisation of ties with India has been high on Sharif’s agenda since he took power last year. The government came very close to granting India the most favoured nation status a few weeks ago, deciding to hold back on the decision at the very last moment. The consensus seems to be that the first step towards normalisation will be increased trade with India. As trade brings the two nations together and builds confidence, stickier issues such as terrorism, Indian interference in Pakistan’s western regions, Kashmir, and Afghanistan will be brought to the table. For Narendra Modi’s government, terrorism will be top of the agenda and his government will want Pakistan to address this issue. Mr Modi will push Mr Sharif to take greater action against the perpetrators of the 2008 Mumbai attacks and prevent cross-border infiltration into Indian Kashmir. Trade will be a close second on the list, as the newly-formed Indian government would like to have greater access to a lucrative market in Pakistan. The BJP will be hesitant to discuss the Kashmir issue and will take a hard line on this, arguing that small steps must first be taken.
Initial reports coming out of Delhi following the short meeting suggested that terrorism was the only issue on the table. If this were the case, then Mr Sharif has already ceded ground to the Indian prime minister. A focus on terrorism and trade in the short-term might sound like a good idea for Mr Sharif, but ceding to India’s demand that Kashmir be tabled for the time being risks unleashing a wave of criticism at home. If the decision is made by Islamabad to push through trade and terrorism in the initial rounds of talks with Delhi, then Mr Sharif will be branded as weak by the hawks in Pakistan. Given that he is an industrialist, Mr Sharif will be under fire from the opposition parties who will claim that the Sharif family is pursuing its business interests at the expense of our Kashmiri brothers. If such a situation were to play out in Pakistan, then the already embattled prime minister will have to fight on another front and will find himself in a weakened position at home.
To prevent such an outcome the Nawaz government must develop a strategy that seeks to reach out to Delhi in a calculated manner, and the statement he read out to the Indian media seemed promising enough. While pushing through normalisation of ties through trade and terrorism, Mr Sharif must also seek to nudge India to reduce its footprint in Pakistan’s western frontier. It is no secret that the security establishment has a deep mistrust of India this would be seen as a positive step for the establishment. Furthermore, Mr Sharif must devise an effective strategy where senior members of his own party are able to effectively tackle the barrage of criticism at home and building consensus with like-minded opposition parties to ensure that the pushback at home is kept to a minimum.
The PML-N government can ill-afford to be reactive while pursuing normalisation of ties with India. With tempers and temperatures running high in the summer, it is essential the party devise a strategy that is proactive both at home and abroad. Negotiating with Narendra Modi’s government will not be relatively easy compared to the battle that must be fought at home if ties with India are to be normalised. Ultimately, the fate of the peace process with India will depend on how the Sharif government handles the issue at home, for failure to present a strong and united front in Islamabad will mean that the entire process will collapse from within.
Published in The Express Tribune, May 28th, 2014.
Normalisation of ties with India has been high on Sharif’s agenda since he took power last year. The government came very close to granting India the most favoured nation status a few weeks ago, deciding to hold back on the decision at the very last moment. The consensus seems to be that the first step towards normalisation will be increased trade with India. As trade brings the two nations together and builds confidence, stickier issues such as terrorism, Indian interference in Pakistan’s western regions, Kashmir, and Afghanistan will be brought to the table. For Narendra Modi’s government, terrorism will be top of the agenda and his government will want Pakistan to address this issue. Mr Modi will push Mr Sharif to take greater action against the perpetrators of the 2008 Mumbai attacks and prevent cross-border infiltration into Indian Kashmir. Trade will be a close second on the list, as the newly-formed Indian government would like to have greater access to a lucrative market in Pakistan. The BJP will be hesitant to discuss the Kashmir issue and will take a hard line on this, arguing that small steps must first be taken.
Initial reports coming out of Delhi following the short meeting suggested that terrorism was the only issue on the table. If this were the case, then Mr Sharif has already ceded ground to the Indian prime minister. A focus on terrorism and trade in the short-term might sound like a good idea for Mr Sharif, but ceding to India’s demand that Kashmir be tabled for the time being risks unleashing a wave of criticism at home. If the decision is made by Islamabad to push through trade and terrorism in the initial rounds of talks with Delhi, then Mr Sharif will be branded as weak by the hawks in Pakistan. Given that he is an industrialist, Mr Sharif will be under fire from the opposition parties who will claim that the Sharif family is pursuing its business interests at the expense of our Kashmiri brothers. If such a situation were to play out in Pakistan, then the already embattled prime minister will have to fight on another front and will find himself in a weakened position at home.
To prevent such an outcome the Nawaz government must develop a strategy that seeks to reach out to Delhi in a calculated manner, and the statement he read out to the Indian media seemed promising enough. While pushing through normalisation of ties through trade and terrorism, Mr Sharif must also seek to nudge India to reduce its footprint in Pakistan’s western frontier. It is no secret that the security establishment has a deep mistrust of India this would be seen as a positive step for the establishment. Furthermore, Mr Sharif must devise an effective strategy where senior members of his own party are able to effectively tackle the barrage of criticism at home and building consensus with like-minded opposition parties to ensure that the pushback at home is kept to a minimum.
The PML-N government can ill-afford to be reactive while pursuing normalisation of ties with India. With tempers and temperatures running high in the summer, it is essential the party devise a strategy that is proactive both at home and abroad. Negotiating with Narendra Modi’s government will not be relatively easy compared to the battle that must be fought at home if ties with India are to be normalised. Ultimately, the fate of the peace process with India will depend on how the Sharif government handles the issue at home, for failure to present a strong and united front in Islamabad will mean that the entire process will collapse from within.
Published in The Express Tribune, May 28th, 2014.