As someone who hails from a modest background, he epitomised for young Indians the notion that one can rise socially in life by dint of hard work, integrity and without the help of patrons and political connections. The game-changer was the common perception that Modi was an honest man and ran a clean and efficient administration in Gujarat. Not only that he was personally honest but he did not tolerate corruption in the bureaucracy or his political party. Mr Manmohan Singh, no doubt, enjoyed a stellar reputation for his integrity but he did not do anything to stop his cabinet members and party colleagues from indulging in various scams and scandals. The Congress party suffered such a devastating defeat because of poor governance, lack of accountability, high degree of tolerance by the top leadership for malfeasance and blatant acts of personal aggrandisement by party influentials.
The same bureaucracy that has paralysed decision-making, remains unresponsive to the needs of the common citizens and is generally resistant to change in other states, behaved quite differently in Gujarat. Extortionary bribes, red tape, apathy and indifference were much less pronounced compared to other Indian states. As a strong leader, Mr Modi was both respected and feared because he did not indulge in any of the malpractices and did not hesitate in taking stern action against those found guilty of infractions. Political interference in appointments, postings and transfers, award of contracts, grant of concessions, etc. was minimal. Of course, he was not perfect by any means as personal likes and dislikes played a part in the choices Mr Modi made in key appointments but by and large, the civil servants in Gujarat acquitted themselves well.
It is yet to be tested whether he would be able to replicate the Gujrat model of governance to the whole of India. As the state governments are relatively more powerful and carry the responsibilities for delivery of most public services, the influence of Mr Modi will remain peripheral and not central. Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal have very strong chief ministers who are all opposed to Mr Modi. It is not obvious whether he would be able to carry them along and succeed in bringing about any significant changes in their governance structure, systems and practices. This constraint upon his ability to turn things around and the very high expectations that the Indian electorate has from his personality will remain a major challenge of his incumbency.
Notwithstanding this challenge, the BJP’s majority standing in the Lok Sabha without the pressures of coalition partners can be profitably used to enact structural reforms in controversial subjects such as land acquisition, labour laws, taxation and reforms of multiple schemes of transfers and subsidies. These measures will fortify the ‘feel-good factor’ among the Indian businessmen, which will lead to an upturn in their capital investment creating a spillover effect on foreign investors also. Western countries have been a bit disappointed that their favourite country India has not been doing as well in the last few years and was lagging behind China. The assumption of office by a liberal, pro-business, honest leader at the helm of affairs would once again ignite the interest of these countries and their businessmen in India. Large foreign direct investment flows and competent handling of these inflows by the Reserve Bank of India under the able leadership of Raghuram Rajan should put India on the trajectory of growth a mountain up to eight to nine per cent per annum. This is the minimum threshold for generating productive jobs for one million new entrants to the labour force every month. The choice of finance minister would also speak volumes about the policy implementation and macroeconomic management capabilities of the incoming government. Economic fundamentals in terms of savings and investment rate, external indebtedness, foreign exchange reserves, stable exchange rate, food grain production, export growth rates remain robust. Fiscal imbalances, inflation and a large current account deficit remain areas of concern. Political muscle will be exercised by Mr Modi in taking some tough but unpopular decisions as he would take full advantage of the heavy mandate he has received from the electorate. Many analysts believe that he would move quickly and rejuvenate the stalled infrastructure projects in power and highways that have caused grief to industrialists in expanding production. Quick decision-making and removal of bureaucratic hurdles would pave the way for this rejuvenation.
For Pakistan, expansion of economic activity in India can be a source of gain, provided we give a very positive signal to Mr Modi and engage the new government in dialogue and grant Non Discriminatory Market Access to India expeditiously by phasing out the negative list. This action, long overdue, has been postponed twice — once in December 2013 and the second time in February 2014. It will not be in our long-term interests to keep this issue hanging as we will be shut out of a booming market next door. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has publicly and openly shown his serious and sincere commitment to bringing this issue to its logical culmination. Past confrontations and recriminations have not helped either of the two countries. Good economic governance in both the countries and normalisation of bilateral economic relations are likely to make a difference.
Published in The Express Tribune, May 25th, 2014.
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COMMENTS (71)
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Water bottle is as empty as before. They keep on dropping water (wisdom) into it, and it keeps on regurgitating and emptying itself!
It would be a waste of time to reform a person who is committed to negativity and water bottle falls in this category. One sincerely hopes that those in Pakistan who for several decades had been committed to negativity with India, change their stance to give peace a chance and also opening a new era of economic cooperation otherwise nothing worthwhile shall be achieved..
Ah, finally, a well-informed article from someone who actually knows about how India is. Refreshing to see this one, as opposed to so many ordinary articles I had read here which were just based on authors' perception about Indian rather than the reality. Hope I get to read more such stuffs.
@water bottle: @BlackJack: Taking support of lies when the time of defeat comes? “2009 – BJP 78.4, Congress 119 2014 – BJP 171, Congress 106″ Those numbers are a bunch of lies. At least get your numbers correct if you are to be taken seriously. Also you are seriously mathematically challenged.
Hubris.
@Gratgy:
If you feel I am losing credibility, you better not reply, or you look like a youknowwhat.
Besides my two comments are not contradictory, I guess you didn't understand what mathematically challenged means.
Now your comment:
"How is this speculation??? If someone does not contest in that constituency they will get 0% votes in that seat, unless you are somehow able to cast your vote for someone who is not contesting.
This is an obvious fact and not speculation."
You have to understand that Like BJP congress also did not contest in many constituencies.
When I say speculation I am talking about guessing how much BJP would have won had it contested more seats. Isn't that a speculation?
@BlackJack:
Even if you consider only the BJP and Congress, your point fails, and so does mine.
Congress has lost a very small number of votes.
Exit polls, better leave that aside. Indian exit polls have been terribly wrong, so wrong that they predicted BJP to emerge as the single largest party in 2009.
The numbers only indicate that the new voters added have voted for BJP and others.
Congress votes have not gone to BJP as many claim.
@water bottle: “BJP got 32% of all the votes polled in the country. But then it contested only 426 seats out of 543 in the lok sabha, in 117 that the BJP did not contest it got 0% of the votes. So what is the confusion? “ Well, that’s just speculation, what would have happened had bjp contested all seats.
How is this speculation??? If someone does not contest in that constituency they will get 0% votes in that seat, unless you are somehow able to cast your vote for someone who is not contesting.
This is an obvious fact and not speculation.
Your two statements, first to @Blackjack
Also you are seriously mathematically challenged.
And then to me
let’s not get into speculations and base everything on what mathematics we have.
Seriousl!!!You are losing all credibility here
@water bottle: Well, that’s just speculation, what would have happened had bjp contested all seats.
This statement doesn't make sense, If BJP had contested all seats obviously they would have got more than 0% votes hence increasing their total % of votes polled. This is not speculation, this is common sense
@water bottle: To avoid another churlish reply from you, let me also just add that you will need to scroll down in both webpages (see links provided or open them in Wikipedia) to a table that shows the break up of each alliance per party with number of seats and number of votes - more important for 2009 since the numbers you see at the top of that page are for UPA/ NDA respectively.
Please allow response to. Someone who has written to me.
@water bottle: I am just.saying that the votes that NDA partners got can by no stretch of imagination be considered as anti-BJP vote as those talking of 69% against BJP clai.
Certainly no BJP leader or any senior media publication have claimed that BJP won a majority Muslim ote. What they have claimed is that BJP won in some seats which had a Muslim majority. The 2 claims are very different.
Third i understand that you claim that the design is wrong and i just disagree with you. The reason is majority by winner can only be ensured in a 2 party system. For a country as diverse as India that is not sufficient. A thriving multiparty system strengthens India's democracy by giving oice at least at different state leels o aspirations which parties with national orientation may sometimes miss. Instead of assuming tha people do not understand what you are sayin, you should give a benefit of doubt o them . It is possible that someone understands what you are saying and disagrees.
@water bottle I am lower caste. And how on earth do you come to assumption all are high caste or Sikhs here based on replies! Doesn't that shows your narrow mindedness? Modi is lower caste himself you know and we do back him , not because he's my caste but because I want my country back to 9 percent growth in was last year.
@water bottle: I do not want to prolong this discussion any longer. Here are the relevant links (ET - pls allow, only Wikipedia). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiangeneralelection,2014 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indiangeneralelection,2009
Now pls go to the relevant rows for Indian National Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party and find out how many votes were polled in each election (should take all of 2 min). After you have done that, pls compare them with my mail. And after that, if you have good grace, post an apology.
India is fortunate to have a visionary president -APJ Abdul Kalam, who in the 90s wrote the book India 2020: A Vision for the New Millennium. He laid out the blueprint for achieving the developed country status by 2020. "The book examines in depth the weakness and the strength of India, as a nation, and offers a vision of how India can emerge to be among the world's first four economic powers by 2020. The Book is dedicated to a young girl whom Kalam met and asked as "what is your dream" for which the young girl replied "I want to live in a developed India." India now has Modi to fullfill his dreams. Just one leader can change the destiny of a country. We have examples like Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore, Dr. Mahatir Mohammad of Malaysia etc. Pakistan used to be one of the fastest growing economies in the past, but down the line the focus got diverted into totally unproductive issues. I think Pakistanis must unite behind pro business leader like Nawaz Sharif. He has some good ideas. Corruption is not a big issue as many people think. Take the case of economically develped southern state like Tamil Nadu. Corruption and development can go hand in hand. I hope Modi will inspire the whole South Asian region, which is the home of 25 percent humanity, to achieve peace and prosperity.
@ET
Please allow all my rebuttals.
Modified fanatics have been telling a lot of lies and propaganda about Modi's win, which are against basic mathematics and common sense.
@G. Din:
"Say that again! Any anti-Congress votes stolen would be the loss of BJP. Loss, not gain!"
If you have problem reading English join a primary school, kapish?
Read my comment a 1000 times and quote where I have said it was loss of BJP.
Quote, I dare you.
"Mr. Bottle, it is precisely because numbers change that percentages are resorted to, to compare results reduced to a common base, 100. Kapish?"
This is the most vacuous response to my comment by someone who clearly has not been educated in mathematics.
@Gratgy: "BJP got 32% of all the votes polled in the country. But then it contested only 426 seats out of 543 in the lok sabha, in 117 that the BJP did not contest it got 0% of the votes. So what is the confusion? "
Well, that's just speculation, what would have happened had bjp contested all seats.
let's not get into speculations and base everything on what mathematics we have.
@BlackJack:
Taking support of lies when the time of defeat comes?
"2009 – BJP 78.4, Congress 119 2014 – BJP 171, Congress 106"
Those numbers are a bunch of lies. At least get your numbers correct if you are to be taken seriously.
Also you are seriously mathematically challenged.
@GP65
"First of all no one has claimed that majority of Muslims oted for Modi."
Sorry buddy, many have exactly claimed that.
"Secondly NDA got 40% vote share which disproves the canard of Congress supporters that 69% people rejected Modi led BJP"
That is the most absurd statement ever. What BJP allies got whether has got anything to do with bjp or not, modi or not is pure speculation. It cannot even be analysed. For example, in Seemandhra, TDP would have won anyway whether with or without bjp.
"Third, by design, one is not expected to get a majority of votes in a multiparty system. "
Read my comment a dozen times before jumping up and down. That's the problem with our democracy. the design itself is wrong.
"Finally the exceptional performance of BJP in UP and Bihar for the most part came at the expense of SP, BSP and JD(U). "
You see this where your analysis bites the dust. You are basing on seats and not votes.
Please do a simple math and you will find that a majority of anti-congress votes have gone to the others and only about 1/3rd of votes have gone to bjp.
@Water Bottle,
BJP got 32% of all the votes polled in the country. But then it contested only 426 seats out of 543 in the lok sabha, in 117 that the BJP did not contest it got 0% of the votes. So what is the confusion?
Jayalalitha who contested probably got only 5% of the votes because she contested only 35 seats but won them all. This is how democracy works. So unless you force everyone and every party to stand in all 543 seats, your system of analysing the vote percentage will not work.
@water bottle: Live in your own world :-) !!!!
@water bottle: It appears you do not have time to read and only time to attack those who disagree with you.
Read my post once again, I have clearly said that to move from the current plurality-based system to a majority-based system will require that only 2 parties contest.
@Surya: Must congratulate you on your highly mature comment. As a Kashmiri, I cannot but echo your wishes regarding normalisation and the return of pandits to kashmir. I hope that it happens in the near future. The pandits are a part of the social fabric of the valley and it is much the poorer without them.
Something very interesting and intriguing.
Just observations (and very little judgmental assertions)
I always see any anti-Muslim, anti-Pakistan, anti-Congress, pro-Modi, pro-BJP, pro-Hindu comments getting a lot of recommendations from indians.
(When I honestly criticize Muslims for their narrow mindedness, I'm called anti-Islam, anti-Muslim, however, I get a lot of recommendations from Indians)
Not surprised that, if I may bring in the caste angle, most Indians here are upper caste Hindus and others, possibly Brahmins, Kshatriyas, jains and Sikhs.
It goes without saying that Indians overwhelm Pakistanis on all English language Pakistani sites that does not require registration.
However, what saddens is, Indians, have finally stopped being logical and started being avengers.
@ET - pls allow my previous reply to @water bottle, it is in direct response to a comment addressed to me based on incorrect information (comparison between UPA/ NDA numbers of 2009 vs Congress/ BJP numbers of 2014) naturally resulting in an erroneous conclusion.
@water bottle: If a majority of the people want to fritter away their votes, it is not the problem of the system. It is their loss. Just like if you do not vote, it amounts to a waiver of your voting rights. With better voter education, they may choose better over time. Also, it is possible that their second preference to a regional party could have been the BJP. Hence, taking a linear and over simplistic view of the cumulative votes is completely erroneous!!!!
@Menon:
Congrats on your obscurantist nonsense.
After a long wait, ET has published a balanced and honest analysis with author having done his homework quite well. Modi started well by inviting Nawaz Sharif which surprised many in India and even put the Pak govt in a quandary whether to accept it or not. However, better sense prevailed and it so appears that military finally agreed though unwillingly for Sharif to accept the invitation. Modi might spring some more surprises both to Pakistanis and its civilian govt with his secular approach at home and taking bold measures to improve relations with its neighbour. Pakistan too would need to reciprocate India's initiatives by curtailing its hostile policy on LoC which has already proved to be self-destructive at home but continuing the same with a strong PM as Modi might end up to be a suicidal one.
@water bottle: FYI never in history except 1984 any party have more than 31% vote share. Also voting never been more than 52% overall.
@BlackJack: Thanks for the data which puts things in perspective. It is also necessary to point out that NDA. Voteshare is 40%.
Secondly, to substantiate our point that BJP did not jiust get anto-Congress votes, we just have to look at results of UP and Bihar, BJP has performed exceptionally well in UP and Bihar where there was hardly any Cpngress presence to begin with. Stands to reason that it is the otes from the regional satraps.This article from Swaminathan Akleshwar Aoyar who was an AAP supporter and against Modi coming to power explains that at least the vote in rural UP and Bihar was a positive vote.http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/comments-analysis/how-migrant-labourers-worked-in-narendra-modis-favour/articleshow/35295910.cms
I do question your idea that proportional representation would address the fragmented Lok Sabha. It would in fact fragment it more.
@Menon: "Dear Water Bottle, You really need to check what is in your water because achieving majority vote is not possible in any democracy." You stole my own words from my lips regarding charging his bottle. Here is another gem from the Bottle: "BJP has gained only because others have split anti congress votes." Say that again! Any anti-Congress votes stolen would be the loss of BJP. Loss, not gain! Yet another: "@Abhi: See my recent comment above. You guys are good at obscurantism." He ought to look up the meaning of the word "obscurantism"! Oh, he is a gem all right! "@BlackJack: Sorry to say buddy. Your calcaulations are wrong. You have deliberately used percentages to confuse people because the actual numbers change from year to year." Mr. Bottle, it is precisely because numbers change that percentages are resorted to, to compare results reduced to a common base, 100. Kapish?
@water bottle: Again depressingly poor argument, in this case because you are either fudging the figures or comparing apples and oranges. Let's look at the ACTUAL number again. 2009 - BJP 78.4, Congress 119 2014 - BJP 171, Congress 106 There isn't much point in looking at alliances (NDA/ UPA) since partners have changed dramatically so comparisons would not be valid. Since you say that there is an increase in number of votes by 110 M in the last 5 years, it would appear that the bulk of them have gone to the BJP from the numbers above. However, since we are aware that BJP has 39 per cent of the first-time voters (most opinion polls and exit polls indicated around this number), it is clear that they must have also attracted existing voters from both Congress and regional parties to increase their number by 92.5 M (more than double).
Menon, let me tell you what is in Water Bottle's water. It is the cool-aid of AAP which makes it hard for some people to be rational and imbues them with a totally fake and delusional sense of morality.
@T ariq Mahmud:
Good governance in government and business depends on selecting and appointing like minded people instead of cronyism appointments. Mr. Modi has a golden opportunity to rise. above cronyism and appoint like minded people as ministers.
From all indications, he is decisive, doesn’t tolerate corruption, graft and inefficiencies, doesn’t mind ruffling few feathers here and there, takes swift action against corrupt officials and has the majority to do it.
Many Indians including my grand father and father believed until their death if, Sardar Vallbhai Patel was the PM instead of Nehru, India would be different country today and nit mired in corruption.
Another man from Gujarat has a chance to turn the country away from corruption so God bless him and give him strength to do so.
@water bottle:
Dear Water Bottle,
You really need to check what is in your water because achieving majority vote is not possible in any democracy. One clear example is the 2000 election in the US. George Bush won the Presidency but Al Gore won the popular vote. What does that mean? More people voted for Al Gore but on constituent basis, Bush won.
It is one of those tricky math word problems.
Again. please check the water in the bottle!!!
@BlackJack:
If you are suggesting that I shouldn't ask questions because I have no solution, then something is wrong up there with you, buddy.
@BlackJack:
If I had a solution, I would be sitting in New Delhi.
I have made my point by asking question instead of blindly taking results.
@Irshad Khan: Even though I am an Indian, I must contradict you on one fact. As of today India is far from being a great Economic Power, it is around tenth in terms of GDP Dollars and ranked third in terms of purchasing power parity. There is still a long way to go. However India has the human resources to become No 1, with the right enabling environment and good governance. To prove my point just look at the Mecca of Capitalism America --- the highest per capita Income and Wealth there is enjoyed not by Americans, Japanese or Chinese but by Indians. One third of the dynamic start ups coming out of Silicon Valley are promoted by those of Indian origin, and Indians also grease the wheels of most of the new age Technology giants be they Microsoft, Amazon or Google. The inference drawn is that in open competition with level playing field, human resources have the potential. Pakistan would have as bright a future because people have the same DNA, however it will need to shed the lodestones around its neck like ideology, focus on empowering and educating the citizen and bury divisive issues that agitate people, divide them and exploit them. A positive agenda will not only build optimism, confidence and trust, it will work wonders.
@water bottle: Dude - you are not making a point. We need a solution that translates votes into seats and these seats into a genuine mandate to govern, instead of a license to create yet another hotch-potch coalition of horse-traders - so if you have one, pls suggest. Just wringing your hands and saying that this is not right is of little use.
@powvow:
"Also you need to note that Modi though seen with industrialists has been determined to reduce red tape & graft… which is a barrier for benefits trickling down to grassroots"
I am not suggesting tokenism.
reducing government and increasing governance is great.
My fear is something else...I am against the theory of trickling down itself.
you see, trickling down - the name itself is so classist - is not good for a country like India where the difference between rich and poor is titanic.
In a year, a rich man buys 10 houses and 10 cars (figuratively speaking) and a poor Dalit has to be content with just a radio?
@Strategic Asset:
Read my recent comment about the number of votes buddy.
BJP has gained only because others have split anti congress votes.
And regarding the minority ruling majority, read my comment properly, I am commenting on our system. Not on congress or bjp.
You guys have real problem both in understanding English and understanding numbers.
@Kolsat:
In my humble opinion, you have not understood my point.
I am saying something is not right in our system. The democratic system itself is flawed in India.
Please read my comment a few more times.
@Abhi:
See my recent comment above.
You guys are good at obscurantism.
Read properly the numbers and don't confuse people with percentages.
BJP has not done any spectacularly.
BjP has won only, I repeat, only because the congress votes is split between others.
@BlackJack:
Sorry to say buddy.
Your calcaulations are wrong.
You have deliberately used percentages to confuse people because the actual numbers change from year to year.
Here is the proof: (all in millions)
In 2009: total votes-426, congress-153, bjp-102
in2013: total votes-537 (increase by 110), congress-106, bjp-171
Do the math now.
An increase of 110 votes plus congress's 47 gives you a total votes of 157.
out of 157 only 69 votes have gone to bjp, others have got 88.
Do you see the difference who has taken away anti-congress votes?????
And you obscurantist dare say, I don't understand. Laughable.
@BlackJack:
That's the point.
It's not a competition between Congress or BJP.
It's a question of how valid is our democracy where minority government is imposed.
Read my comment 10 times.
I never blamed BJP. I blamed our democratic system. This is simply not right.
@water bottle: The more I have come to understand the results, the more I have come to the conclusion that this is not a Modi’s win at all. This is simply a congress loss. This is in fact a minority government imposed on majority. 31% votes is called a minority.
Based on what you are saying, it appears that the Congress has been losing for most of the past 59-odd years.
In 2009, Congress had a pan-India vote-share of 28.6% whereas BJP had 18.8%. Mind you, BJP still does not have a presence in certain states unlike the Congress.
In 2014, Congress got their lowest ever vote-share of 19.3% whereas BJP got 31%. The extra vote-share was enough for them to win a majority of seats in the Lok Sabha.
If you really want winning parties to have better vote-share, that is only possible in a two party system. However, I doubt that Indians will ever endorse such a system as that would be an impediment to India's federalist structure as well as democracy.
@water bottle: IMHO you have no understanding of Indian electoral system. In the Indian system a person who gets highest number of votes wins. Congress which has been in power for nearly sixty years since independence has won government in the past even after winning less than fifty percent of votes. So nothing unusual happened in this election. Also Indian electorates happen to be extremely large. Remember over eight hundred million voters elected five hundred forty three candidates out of several thousand. Naturally one candidate cannot secure a large vote and voters understand that. It is worth remembering that in many countries such a system. Only in despotic systems such as dictatorships and one party systems candidates get elected almost hundred percent of the vote. Soon you will see that Egyptian President winning by such a margin.
it is rare to see such clarity of thought alongside an honest appraisal of what the developments in India mean. A coalition government suffers from political compulsions that can often cripple it. The BJP government led by Mr Modi has promised the people good governance and speedy economic development, it will have no excuses if it cannot deliver. If Modi can convert India into a growth engine, with close coordination between SAARC countries India could be the locomotive that puts all countries in the region on a faster growth track -- the added bonus would be employment generation accompanied by lowered tensions.
A hub and spoke model could work very well. Investments in roads and infrastructure in both Nepal and Sri Lanka would make them leading tourist destinations. Bangladesh has the potential to become one of the biggest manufacturing bases in the region, being very competitive. Pakistan can focus on Agriculture and become a bread basket, feeding 1.8 Billion people needs a lot of food. Afghanistan could become the resources center and logistical and Energy gateway, catering to the massive requirements of the region. India could make a small contribution in all of the above, making up the shortfalls when they arise. More importantly because of its very strong Science and Technology base, India should focus on becoming the innovation and R & D hub that continues to provide the cutting edge to keep South Asia productive and competitive. It could also be the provider of training and skills to enable human resources match the skill requirements of the region. There is no limit to cooperation where there is a will, potential always being unlimited.
A very good non-political analysis by a capable, devoted and unbiased Pakistani. We have to recognise that India is now a great economic power and a big market in our neighbourhood. We should say adeau to animosity and jealousy with them as it has given nothing but taken many things from us. We should learn many things from them particularly the field of Administration and ways of ruling the poor masses and efforts to lift their livelihood. We should also learn the capability of their leaders to keep the nation united from every point of view. Our Prime Minister, while arriving in India, should deliver a message to Indians that we want nothing but un-conditional frendship with them and extreme cooperation in trade and business and should declare them as most favoured nation.
@waterbottle - You may have a point... But how many "national" parties have grabbed more than 50% of the vote in the last 25 years? Also you need to note that Modi though seen with industrialists has been determined to reduce red tape & graft... which is a barrier for benefits trickling down to grassroots... Thus he may not go for tokenism and announce "packages" for the deprived or arrange iftars, as other parties do. However his ability to provide clean administration & govt will help Dalits, Muslims & other marginalized communities. The caveat here is that the deprived classes should be wise and progressive enough to avail those benefits.
@waterbottle I don't know if you remember, one year back I responded to your comment when you said that rural folks don't have access to FB and congress will win rural seats without any trouble. I said at that time, that even Amethi will be difficult to hold this time and eventually it was proven. Your rant about 31% is not withstanding as previous UPA government had even less vote share and they ruled 10 full terms. Most of the places where BJP has traditional presence they got around 40-50% of votes which is very good by any standard. BJP did not get this much support in other areas ( east and deep south) but there also vote share increased. It has already reached out to Dalits and Muslims and I think in long term BJPs vote share will keep increasing under Modi. Bad news for those who were dreaming to become PM based small vote banks.
A free market is a given. Mr Patel, the Congress and the BJP must realize where the market fails and where the state fails Capitalism running amok with great environmental damage and displacement of people was unavoidable No lesson learnt. There are many methods like reducing pollution, effluent treatment and recycling which are possible by putting the burden on the units from day one,Agriculture in Pakistan and India depending on rice and wheat which use inputs which are becoming scarcer as well as polluting in many ways need to be largely replaced with healthier crops like barley amaranth and millets as well as flax. The benefits are too many to be listed. The entitlement thing has gone out of hand, makes no sense, cannot be administered well(I am a retired administrator) and in the case of grains quite damaging in many ways. The emphasis ha to be on more tree crops, selected vegetables in particular etc. Water saving and solar use are essential. Once you get into details of say solar power(eg solar water heating) you realize that within sectors you need to prioritize.(For the last 10 years i have rain water harvesting and solar power in my house) All of these are job creators. This is where our economists have failed as did the UPA. Mr Patel's advice will not work. It is not the family(which is an albatross) but detailed study of policy implications of choices
First-past-the-post is one of the major flaws of Indian democracy therefore a man snubbed by majority of voters becoming PM is no surprise & Modi is not the first one such. It is natural in a Multi-Party set up & except as Ego-puncture it means little. When one does not vote for Modi (thru his party/allies) it's tantamount to rejection of the man, private thoughts & imaginations are immaterial. Close to 4 out of 10 voters in India selected NDA of which BJP is the main constituent. 6 out of 10 voters rejected it by selecting its opponents. There is no other way to look at it. Modi & his multimillion dollar PR machine can take both credit & blame for such result since he & only he was projected thru length & breadth of India, not even the Allies. He was rejected by majority of Indians. That's a useful take-away for any megalomaniac to help him come down a notch or two.Sobering thought for his hysterical, ostrichian supporters though..
@Arif: It's a lie perpetuated by some Indians.
A majority of Dalits and Muslims may have not voted for BJP.
Understand this...one or two seats here and there doesn't prove anything. Other than that, there is absolutely no mechanism to know which religion or caste have voted for which party.
Everything everyone claims is pure hogwash based on pure speculation and sometimes wishful thinking.
I will tell you, Indian elections are extremely hard to predict even based on exit polls (which is what people also use to speculate on which caste voted for which party).
In case you didn't know, exits polls have been grossly miscalculating since the last three elections.
They have been wrong.
Then what do these armchair analysts know, purely speculating based on the pure speculations of others?
@M:
39 or 31 doesn't matter. It's still a minority.
"It is a huge mandate for any govt."
Just because someone uses the word HUGE, it doesn't become huge.
Please stop lying and understand that this is the first majority party, in India's history, to receive such a low percentage of votes.
In other words this is the first solid government elected by a small minority.
I'm not talking about coalition here. Even with the coalition where NDA has obtained 340 seats that is close to being 2/3rd, the vote share is still well below 50%.
This is a minority government imposed on majority. This is not BJP's or Congress's fault. This is the fault of our system.
Again, Indians, especially Modi's followers should not behave like Imran Khan's followers and be blinded to the facts.
There is something that is wrong with our system. I only hope that it will be corrected some day.
@waterbottle bjp vote % would be more if it contested more seats which it did not since it had allies contesting from those seats. So this govt has a vote share of 39 % not 31% as you try to project. It is a huge mandate for any govt. India has multiparty system so any one group getting this is a big thing and does not mean rest 60% are apposed to modi govt. IT IS NOT A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. By your logic every govt in india has a majority against it since no one in any past or present center or state govt had 51% vote share. AAP has 99% Indians against it congress has 80% Indians against it so and and so forth You are just twisting facts and statistics to suit our opinion.
@water bottle We wish Pakistan has some one like Modi who can unite people across country on a nationalist platform and a strong leader. The fact large numbers of backward castes, Muslims and Dalits have voted for Modi is very inspiring.
Sensible analysis. Surprising, though, that a Pakistani author didnt talk about religion
The writer has provided a good framework for India's progression under Moodi . Much depends how he delivers on his promises and in what kind of frame work . Economic traction however will require a sound and assured regional peace ruling out possibility of any untoward incidents . Pakistan in terms of political maturity has covered a lot of ground with a bipartisan consensus to nurture and strengthen peace process with India . While there is a need for great vigils to guard against foot loose elements who could bring the two countries to a flash point . Such adventurism by crazy elements need to be factored in to reign in , to control its damage to address the un intended consequences while striving for peace architecture in the sub continent . Considering the new imperatives the sub continent is entering a phase of real politics where every small or big effort should tract towards normalcy . The problems cannot be wished away but the resolution need to be bench marked . Solution lies in the process.
Grt miracle, 10% growth, more a myth than a reality. Trade like courtesy is a two-way affair. Modi elected because people's aspirations not met. Like we elected MNS for want of a better choice. Like we would elect emptyminded IK. Economics is simple. In capitalist economies act on capitalism principles. HarrodDomar. Domar Burden of Debt Model, so on
dear Sir, this is a reasonable analysis of the modi potential for south asia. Like china and taiwan have developed healthy trade ties, we in south asia should increase our trade ties between all saarc countries and increase people-to-people tourism. Millions of families all over south asia will enjoy prosperity, jobs, homes and peace if there is friendship between all countries. Have you seen any country which has terrorism, and wars happy??? .
Mr Husain Very good analysis.
However, one correction. The three states BJP did not win are Orissa, TN and West Bengal. You have mentioned UP by mistake. BJP won big in UP, the current ruling party Samajwadi party which is a retrogressive party which thrives on divisive casteist, religious divisions will be voted out of power if elections are conducted today.
In the case of Orissa and TN, the regional parties won because of good governance and popularity of their chief ministers. The same cannot be said of WB which is ruled by another retrogressive, communal party TMC which has a very poor track record on governance and economic growth. TMC still won due to vote bank politics and fear factor.
Overall the sweetest news in this election is the decimation of CPI and CPIM which are the most retrogressive and anti-people and anti progress.
I would like to add that normalized trade all along the traditional Grand Trunk Road, from Kabul to Dhaka, would provide benefit to the people and the treasuries of all the countries. Some reports indicate that Mr Bhagwati (renowned economist from Columbia University) will also be advising in some form. Mr. Modi also is a role model to the millenials that son of a tea stall vendor can reach one of the most influential positions in South Asia. Hopefully, Pakistanis would follow soon and get rid of their feudal leaders.
Brilliant article. A senior, respected individual writing a mature article instead of some misinformed juveniles writing a biased script.
As an Indian, and a Kashmiri, I hope both countries can work together to promote economic growth and political stability. This should put to rest some of insurgency in my home state (and dare I say allow us Pandits to return?)
As we share a common border and to some extent, culture as well, we can expect to make avail of terms of competitive advantage in both economies to improve returns. This will be beneficial to both of us. We need to promote a free trading environment, ease work visas so cross border business is possible, so there's mutual benefit for both parties.
The disclaimer here is that business cannot be conducted under the threat of the gun. Each nation's sovereignty must respected and terror machine in Pakistan should get dismantled in order to ensure a stable political setup.
India and Indians want to see a progressive Pakistan. Who doesn't want a healthy neighbourhood? We just want the nation to shed extremism in exchange for capitalism.