Is there a Modi wave brewing?
For Modi, 272 seats are no longer satisfying, he seeks dominance. Its the difference between him and Congress.
The writer is a columnist. He is also a former editor of the Mumbai-based English newspaper Mid Day and the Gujarati paper Divya Bhaskar. His book, translating Saadat Hasan Manto’s non-fiction work, will be published this year aakar.patel@tribune.com.pk
Is there a Modi wave and is this an election different from others? Or is the imminent thrashing of the ruling party the result of an anti-Congress vote? Positive or negative?
Yet another opinion poll, this time from NDTV, has shown dominance for the Narendra Modi-led BJP over the Congress.
Now, usually, we have fragmented general elections in India. This is why I ask if there is a Modi wave. Parties do well in some states and not in others. Local factors are very often and some might say, most often, the predictors for performance.
This is the reason the Congress might even sweep a state and be reduced to nothing in the one next to it.
This has happened more often than it has not. In the last four decades, the sweep of one party, meaning the Congress, has been experienced only exceptionally. The general rule has been that the main parties do not have a consistency in their performance across states.
In this election, there is a difference. If we track the large states in which the Bharatiya Janata Party has a presence, something striking is on display. Look at Maharashtra, Gujarat, Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh. In none of these states is the Congress winning more seats than the BJP, according to the opinion polls. The one state in which the Congress did well only a few months ago, Karnataka, is also falling into the BJP’s hands in the Lok Sabha elections, according to more than one poll. Only one poll shows the Congress ahead there.
This can be construed in only one way: that there is something that has stirred in favour of Modi and against the Congress. It has, in the past, also been true at some points that the Congress has lost to the opposition in most if not all states, but this has generally been the case when the opposition parties have ganged up against it in one huge formation.
The election of 1977 was one such time and VP Singh’s grand coalition against Rajiv Gandhi in 1989 was another.
Even in such instances, the Congress has tended to retain its single-largest-party status and had a dominant presence in many of the states, especially in south India.
When the BJP took power under Atal Bihari Vajpayee and did so well for three elections, the Congress took a national thrashing only once, in 1999. But, even here, though it no longer had a lead over the big states against the BJP with a couple of exceptions (mainly Karnataka), it had a larger share of the total vote.
This time, if opinion poll results hold and the Congress-BJP positions are reversed, meaning 100 seats to the Congress and 200 to the BJP, it will be the first time that the Congress will have been outperformed by the BJP across India.
I think this is a sign that there is a positive vote in favour of Modi rather than a negative one against the Congress. Even in states where the Congress party is in a good position locally (once again: Karnataka) it is seen as surrendering the advantage in the national battle.
Modi is an exceptional asset for his party in that sense. His tireless campaigning — he has been on the road now for a year — shows the work ethic of a motivated politician who is focused on the prize.
His new call to the voter to give him 300 seats (something last achieved by Rajiv Gandhi 30 years ago) shows the confidence with which he is campaigning.
One must also accept that the BJP has produced a much sharper and far more entertaining advertising campaign than the Congress.
For Modi, 272 seats are no longer satisfying and he seeks dominance. It shows the difference between him and the totally defensive-minded Congress. The spirit seems to have gone out of the Gandhis, with Sonia less and less visible on the campaign trail. Their reluctance to face the media, which is fine when the party is in power, is now damaging them.
Published in The Express Tribune, April 6th, 2014.
Yet another opinion poll, this time from NDTV, has shown dominance for the Narendra Modi-led BJP over the Congress.
Now, usually, we have fragmented general elections in India. This is why I ask if there is a Modi wave. Parties do well in some states and not in others. Local factors are very often and some might say, most often, the predictors for performance.
This is the reason the Congress might even sweep a state and be reduced to nothing in the one next to it.
This has happened more often than it has not. In the last four decades, the sweep of one party, meaning the Congress, has been experienced only exceptionally. The general rule has been that the main parties do not have a consistency in their performance across states.
In this election, there is a difference. If we track the large states in which the Bharatiya Janata Party has a presence, something striking is on display. Look at Maharashtra, Gujarat, Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh. In none of these states is the Congress winning more seats than the BJP, according to the opinion polls. The one state in which the Congress did well only a few months ago, Karnataka, is also falling into the BJP’s hands in the Lok Sabha elections, according to more than one poll. Only one poll shows the Congress ahead there.
This can be construed in only one way: that there is something that has stirred in favour of Modi and against the Congress. It has, in the past, also been true at some points that the Congress has lost to the opposition in most if not all states, but this has generally been the case when the opposition parties have ganged up against it in one huge formation.
The election of 1977 was one such time and VP Singh’s grand coalition against Rajiv Gandhi in 1989 was another.
Even in such instances, the Congress has tended to retain its single-largest-party status and had a dominant presence in many of the states, especially in south India.
When the BJP took power under Atal Bihari Vajpayee and did so well for three elections, the Congress took a national thrashing only once, in 1999. But, even here, though it no longer had a lead over the big states against the BJP with a couple of exceptions (mainly Karnataka), it had a larger share of the total vote.
This time, if opinion poll results hold and the Congress-BJP positions are reversed, meaning 100 seats to the Congress and 200 to the BJP, it will be the first time that the Congress will have been outperformed by the BJP across India.
I think this is a sign that there is a positive vote in favour of Modi rather than a negative one against the Congress. Even in states where the Congress party is in a good position locally (once again: Karnataka) it is seen as surrendering the advantage in the national battle.
Modi is an exceptional asset for his party in that sense. His tireless campaigning — he has been on the road now for a year — shows the work ethic of a motivated politician who is focused on the prize.
His new call to the voter to give him 300 seats (something last achieved by Rajiv Gandhi 30 years ago) shows the confidence with which he is campaigning.
One must also accept that the BJP has produced a much sharper and far more entertaining advertising campaign than the Congress.
For Modi, 272 seats are no longer satisfying and he seeks dominance. It shows the difference between him and the totally defensive-minded Congress. The spirit seems to have gone out of the Gandhis, with Sonia less and less visible on the campaign trail. Their reluctance to face the media, which is fine when the party is in power, is now damaging them.
Published in The Express Tribune, April 6th, 2014.