The Middle East puzzle
While pursuing relations with Arab states, Pakistan should not entangle itself in power politics in the Middle East.
The writer is an independent political and defence analyst. He is also the author of several books, monographs and articles on Pakistan and South Asian Affairs
Pakistan is drawing much attention of oil-rich conservative Arab kingdoms. In a way, this is good news for Pakistan’s troubled economy. Pakistan needs financial support, loans, oil and gas, investment and jobs for Pakistanis in the Middle East and the Gulf region to put its economic house in order and cope with the ongoing energy shortages. These conservative Arab kingdoms know Pakistan’s weaknesses and are helpful in these matters in order to co-opt Pakistan for their power politics in the Middle East.
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Foreign Office officials have rejected the concern that Pakistan would get actively involved in any interstate power politics in the Middle East and the Gulf region. Pakistan’s official circles have also maintained that regular troops would not be sent to Saudi Arabia or Bahrain.
Despite the repeated statement of Pakistani officials about its non-partisan disposition on Middle Eastern affairs, strong doubts persist regarding whether Pakistan can maintain a nonpartisan disposition given the favours being showered on Pakistan by the conservative Arab states. If Pakistan’s foreign policy and domestic choices are influenced by American economic and military assistance and military sales, how could the Arab largesse have no impact on the country foreign policy at a time when this assistance is much needed by the Nawaz Sharif government?
The doubts about Pakistan’s Middle Eastern policy were created by the desire of the federal government to act mysteriously about the donation of $1.5 billion by Saudi Arabia. Initially, the federal government refused to name the donor country. However, as the media tracked the name, the federal government admitted it. The policy of not disclosing the name of Saudi Arabia created a suspicion about the motive of such a gift.
Earlier, Pakistan endorsed the Saudi position on the replacement of Bashar alAssad’s government in Syria with an interim arrangement in the communique issued at the conclusion of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia’s visit to Pakistan.
The visit of the ruler of Bahrain between March 18 and March 20 within a month of high-level Saudi visits, raised eyebrows as to what is happening.
Current Saudi-Bahrain interest in Pakistan has to be understood with reference to the countries’ efforts to expand their influence in the region and contain Iran’s anti-monarchical ambitions in the region. They also want to support their favourites in strife-ridden countries in the Middle East such as Bahrain, Syria, Yemen and Egypt.
Saudi Arabia is now building a role in the Middle East, which is autonomous of the United States. This reflects Saudi Arabia’s disappointment in US policies towards Syria and Iran. Initially, the US was supportive of the demand for the removal of Bashar alAssad’s government in Syria. However, as al Qaeda linked groups and anti-US militant groups have gained ground, the US has become cautious in supporting dissident groups because it did not want hardline and anti-US groups to replace Bashar alAssad. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia began supporting some Salafi groups that had pro-Saudi orientation. But these pro-Saudi groups or pro-al Qaeda groups could not succeed against the Syrian government without the US support which was not forthcoming.
The other development that perturbed Saudi Arabia was the US decision to seek a negotiated solution of Iran’s nuclear programme. The interim agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear programme to peaceful purposes in November 2013 began to change the relations between Iran and the US. Now, the US and Iran are negotiating the final agreement to restrict Iran’s nuclear programme to peaceful purpose. This is not a welcome development for Saudi Arabia because the withdrawal of US pressure on Iran after the signing of the final agreement would give the later the opportunity to devote more attention to economic development and it could become more active in pursuing its political agenda.
These factors have led Saudi Arabia to cultivate more active relations with other states in and around the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain began to work together to contain liberal politics that grew out of the Arab Spring and Iran’s influence. They also worked towards restricting the role of the al Qaeda-linked groups and promoting those religious hardliner groups in Salafi tradition that were linked with their regional agenda.
This cooperative move received a setback when Qatar supported the Muslim Brotherhood after the Egyptian Army’s overthrow of President Morsi’s government (2013). Annoyed by Qatar’s move, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain withdrew their ambassadors from Qatar. This caused a temporary breach among the conservative Arab kingdoms, which weakens their efforts to contain the influence of Iran and adopt a unified stand on Syria. Qatar has a strong American military presence.
Saudi Arabia views Pakistan as an important country for security and stability in the region. It views the Pakistan military as a professional force that can be relied on for Saudi Arabia’s internal security. Pakistan’s defence industry is more developed than that of any Arab country. Moreover, Pakistan also has highly professional people in the science and technology sector who can be used for civilian and military purposes.
Even if there is no formal deployment of Pakistan’s regular army troops in Saudi Arabia, it can directly recruit retired military personnel. Some Pakistani military personnel may seek retirement for a security-related job in Saudi Arabia. It is possible that Saudi Arabia buys small weapons, arms and ammunition from Pakistan for strategic purposes. Some of this equipment may be passed on to pro-Saudi rebels in Syria.
Bahrain already recruits Pakistanis for its police and paramilitary force. It can easily increase recruitment from Pakistan. While pursuing relations with the conservative Arab states, Pakistan should not entangle itself in dynastic and power politics in the Middle East. It must also maintain equally friendly relations with Iran. The reality of geography and economic considerations make it imperative to maintain friendly relations with Iran. The criteria for relationship with the Middle Eastern states should only be bilateralism and mutually beneficial considerations.
Published in The Express Tribune, March 24th, 2014.
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Foreign Office officials have rejected the concern that Pakistan would get actively involved in any interstate power politics in the Middle East and the Gulf region. Pakistan’s official circles have also maintained that regular troops would not be sent to Saudi Arabia or Bahrain.
Despite the repeated statement of Pakistani officials about its non-partisan disposition on Middle Eastern affairs, strong doubts persist regarding whether Pakistan can maintain a nonpartisan disposition given the favours being showered on Pakistan by the conservative Arab states. If Pakistan’s foreign policy and domestic choices are influenced by American economic and military assistance and military sales, how could the Arab largesse have no impact on the country foreign policy at a time when this assistance is much needed by the Nawaz Sharif government?
The doubts about Pakistan’s Middle Eastern policy were created by the desire of the federal government to act mysteriously about the donation of $1.5 billion by Saudi Arabia. Initially, the federal government refused to name the donor country. However, as the media tracked the name, the federal government admitted it. The policy of not disclosing the name of Saudi Arabia created a suspicion about the motive of such a gift.
Earlier, Pakistan endorsed the Saudi position on the replacement of Bashar alAssad’s government in Syria with an interim arrangement in the communique issued at the conclusion of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia’s visit to Pakistan.
The visit of the ruler of Bahrain between March 18 and March 20 within a month of high-level Saudi visits, raised eyebrows as to what is happening.
Current Saudi-Bahrain interest in Pakistan has to be understood with reference to the countries’ efforts to expand their influence in the region and contain Iran’s anti-monarchical ambitions in the region. They also want to support their favourites in strife-ridden countries in the Middle East such as Bahrain, Syria, Yemen and Egypt.
Saudi Arabia is now building a role in the Middle East, which is autonomous of the United States. This reflects Saudi Arabia’s disappointment in US policies towards Syria and Iran. Initially, the US was supportive of the demand for the removal of Bashar alAssad’s government in Syria. However, as al Qaeda linked groups and anti-US militant groups have gained ground, the US has become cautious in supporting dissident groups because it did not want hardline and anti-US groups to replace Bashar alAssad. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia began supporting some Salafi groups that had pro-Saudi orientation. But these pro-Saudi groups or pro-al Qaeda groups could not succeed against the Syrian government without the US support which was not forthcoming.
The other development that perturbed Saudi Arabia was the US decision to seek a negotiated solution of Iran’s nuclear programme. The interim agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear programme to peaceful purposes in November 2013 began to change the relations between Iran and the US. Now, the US and Iran are negotiating the final agreement to restrict Iran’s nuclear programme to peaceful purpose. This is not a welcome development for Saudi Arabia because the withdrawal of US pressure on Iran after the signing of the final agreement would give the later the opportunity to devote more attention to economic development and it could become more active in pursuing its political agenda.
These factors have led Saudi Arabia to cultivate more active relations with other states in and around the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain began to work together to contain liberal politics that grew out of the Arab Spring and Iran’s influence. They also worked towards restricting the role of the al Qaeda-linked groups and promoting those religious hardliner groups in Salafi tradition that were linked with their regional agenda.
This cooperative move received a setback when Qatar supported the Muslim Brotherhood after the Egyptian Army’s overthrow of President Morsi’s government (2013). Annoyed by Qatar’s move, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain withdrew their ambassadors from Qatar. This caused a temporary breach among the conservative Arab kingdoms, which weakens their efforts to contain the influence of Iran and adopt a unified stand on Syria. Qatar has a strong American military presence.
Saudi Arabia views Pakistan as an important country for security and stability in the region. It views the Pakistan military as a professional force that can be relied on for Saudi Arabia’s internal security. Pakistan’s defence industry is more developed than that of any Arab country. Moreover, Pakistan also has highly professional people in the science and technology sector who can be used for civilian and military purposes.
Even if there is no formal deployment of Pakistan’s regular army troops in Saudi Arabia, it can directly recruit retired military personnel. Some Pakistani military personnel may seek retirement for a security-related job in Saudi Arabia. It is possible that Saudi Arabia buys small weapons, arms and ammunition from Pakistan for strategic purposes. Some of this equipment may be passed on to pro-Saudi rebels in Syria.
Bahrain already recruits Pakistanis for its police and paramilitary force. It can easily increase recruitment from Pakistan. While pursuing relations with the conservative Arab states, Pakistan should not entangle itself in dynastic and power politics in the Middle East. It must also maintain equally friendly relations with Iran. The reality of geography and economic considerations make it imperative to maintain friendly relations with Iran. The criteria for relationship with the Middle Eastern states should only be bilateralism and mutually beneficial considerations.
Published in The Express Tribune, March 24th, 2014.